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AFC Wimbledon v Accrington Stanley

All eyes are on AFC Wimbledon and Accrington on Tuesday night as they take EFL centre stage for a League Two matchup originally scheduled for September, but postponed because of flooding which left AFC Wimbledon’s Cherry Red Records Stadium pitch unplayable. 

The result of the flooding and subsequent missed matches has seen AFC Wimbledon drop into mid-table in the standings, but their underlying data has them firmly pegged as a promotion candidate. Now is the time for them to turn the games in hands into points on the board. 

AFC Wimbledon go into the match 10^th in the table on 22 points. A home win here would see them bunny-hop Gillingham, Bradford and Grimsby and sit in 7^th – the final playoff occupying place. There’s little reason to think that AFC Wimbledon aren’t capable of this. Their home record this season is superb – Five wins and one defeat from six matches, an average of 2.5 goals scored per home game, and just three goals conceded. Their home goal difference of +12 is double anybody else’s home goal difference. 

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AFC Wimbledon’s underlying defensive metrics are the best in the league. Caveated by the fact that they’ve played fewer matches than everyone else, according to FotMob data, their xGA is comfortably the lowest in the league at 9.8. Crewe come next in the table with 13xGA. They’ve kept 4/6 clean sheets at home this season, against MK Dons, Fleetwood, Carlisle and Morecambe. 

Accrington are a trickier team to get a handle on. They are currently 18^th in the table with 17 points and have a five point cushion from the relegation zone. However, their expected points is 21.3 and has them projected as more of a mid-table team than a relegation candidate. The underperformance comes in the way of their defensive output – Accrington’s 15.22 xGA is the 5^th lowest in the league, behind Port Vale, Crewe, Walsall and AFC Wimbledon – three of the divisions top four teams currently.

But only six teams have conceded more goals than Accrington’s 24 – Grimsby, Cheltenham, Newport and Swindon, Morecambe and Carlisle, the league’s bottom three teams.  

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⭐ AFC Wimbledon v Accrington Stanley Best Bet

AFC Wimbledon v Accrington Stanley

Tuesday 19:45

Half-Time: Draw / Full-Time: AFC Wimbledon

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Accrington have only won four times in the league this season but two of their victories have come on their travels, at Gillingham and Chesterfield. Those two results alone are reason enough for AFC Wimbledon to understand that a home win won’t be straight-forward. 

AFC Wimbledon should have enough to get a win over the line here but Accrington can keep them honest. AFC Wimbledon have only been leading at half-time 4/13 times in League Two this season and Accrington have only been behind at half-time on 5/15 occasions. We could see a cagey first half, with the hosts looking to up their attacking prowess after the break.

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👕 AFC Wimbledon v Accrington Stanley Predicted XI

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🔍 AFC Wimbledon v Accrington Stanley Players to Watch

🔵 James Tilley

AFC Wimbledon rank top of the table for accurate crosses per match with 6 and top for shots on target per match with 5.2. This despite ranking 18^th for touches inside the opposition penalty area. 

Some of this can be put down to the capabilities of shot heavy, right-footed left wing-back, James Tilley. Tilley ranks 13^th in League Two for expected assists and 24^th for shots per 90. He’s 24^th for shot on target % and 10^th for shots from open play. Tilley is 4^th in the league for crosses per 90, 15^th for dribble attempts per 90 and 6^th for dribble success %. 

Whilst it can’t be argued that Matty Stevens is AFC Wimbledon’s chief goal threat, Tilley is the player that carries the X Factor. His shot numbers in League Two matches this season read 0-1-2-0-1-2-3-2-6-2. 

AFC Wimbledon v Accrington Stanley

Tuesday 19:45

James Tilley to Score Anytime

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🔴 Billy Crelin

For Accrington to remain competitive in this match Everton loanee Goalkeeper, Billy Crelin is going to need to be at his best. Accrington are woefully underperforming their xGA and AFC Wimbledon have the most shots on target per game in the division.  

Crelin’s numbers are decent. Of Keepers who have played 630 League Two minutes or more this season he has the 5^th highest save percentage rate, behind James Belshaw (Harrogate), Filip Marschall (Crewe), Tom McGill (MK Dons) and Alex Bass (Notts County).

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📂 AFC Wimbledon v Accrington Stanley Cheat Sheet

Cheat Sheat Pending…

There’s nowhere better than Andy’s Bet Club for Football Betting Predictions. As well as these EFL Predictions, we’ve also got Bradford v Rotherham Betting Tips for Tuesday’s action.

With the Nations League live this week, check out our Hungary v Germany Betting Tips and Wales v Iceland Betting Predictions to enhance your Tuesday punting even further.

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💻 AFC Wimbledon v Accrington Stanley Form and Tactics

AFC Wimbledon are 12^th in the 5 game form table with three defeats and two wins. A surprising 1-0 home defeat to Grimsby was put in the rear view mirror on Saturday when AFC Wimbledon travelled North to Barrow and ran out 3-1 winners. 

Manager Johnnie Jackson credited his substitutes with forcing that victory and Josh Kelly could come into the starting XI as a result. If he does, that will mean a shift from 3-5-2 to a 3-4-1-2. Alternatively JJ could keep Kelly as an option from the bench. Joe Lewis is suspended and the players away on international duty won’t be back in time to feature. 

We’re expecting the starting XI to look as follows: Owen Goodman in goal. A back three of Harbottle, Ogundere and Johnson. Neufville and James Tilley as wing-backs. Ball and Smith in midfield with one of Maycock or Josh Kelly. With Joe Pigott and Matty Stevens in attack. 

Accrington are 5^th in the 5 game form table and are unbeaten in their last three, including a creditable draw at home to Walsall and an away victory at Chesterfield. 

With Shaun Whalley expected to still be missing with injury, Accrington are likely to be unchanged from Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Swindon and will match up AFC Wimbledon’s three at the back setup. Billy Crelin will be in goal and protected by a physical back three of Sonny Aljofree, Farren Rawson and Zach Awe – Aljofree and Rawson both come into the game off the back of goals at the weekend.

Love, Coyle, Khumbeni and Woods make up the midfield. In attack, Burnley loanee Dara Costelloe will operate behind Tyler Walton and Josh Woods. 

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🏁 AFC Wimbledon v Accrington Stanley Ref Watch

• Referee: Ben Atkinson
• Averages 4.22 yellow cards per match this season.
• He has given a penalty kick in 3/9 matches refereed this season.
• He is yet to dish out a red card this season.

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Football Predictions at Andy’s Bet Club

Our guide on How To Use A Cheat Sheet is the perfect way to get involved with our Bet Builder Stats tool, the best freely available data source for punting on the Premier League.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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