Armenia v Wales

Following Wales’ 2-0 win over Croatia during the last international break, Rob Page’s men have unexpectedly found themselves with their destiny in their own hands. Croatia, level on points with Wales, face bottom of the group Latvia later on Saturday, so Wales must secure three points here to keep the pressure on Zlatko Dalic’s side.

Armenia are not technically out of the running for qualification however, sitting only three points behind Wales and Croatia, so this will be a tough test for the Dragons in Yerevan, with the hosts being right up for this one. The two sides’ previous meeting in this group was a 4-2 thriller, with Wales’ early lead turning into a 3-1 advantage for the visiting Armenians; and though Harry Wilson pulled one back in the 72nd-minute, Lucas Zelarayan’s 75th-minute effort put the game out of reach for the hosts.

Despite this big away result earlier in the group, Armenia are now winless in their last three games in the group, including a shock 2-0 loss to basement boys Latvia during the October international break. This promises to be a competitive and tense game between two sides who desperately need a win. A draw does neither side any good, so expect goals to flow as either side falling behind would force them out of their defensive shape and onto the front foot, opening gaps for the opposition to exploit.

The stakes in this one make it perfect for a bet builder, and we have a range of highly-researched selections that you can add to your Armenia v Wales bet builder to get your Saturday afternoon rolling with a winner.

---

Armenia v Wales Cheat Sheet

This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

You can find Armenia v Wales stats on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official lineups one hour before kick-off.

Now, for our breakdown and preview with recommended bets…

---

🔴🐉 Match stats: Wales the favourites, and with good reason

Wales’ highly professional performance last time out against Croatia should give hope to Rob Page’s side that they can complete an unlikely turnaround, and book their place in Germany next summer with two wins to finish the qualification campaign.

Armenia’s poor form means that though this will be a tough game, Wales should be confident of being able to get a result here. The Armenians’ last two games have seen them fall 2-0 to Latvia and 3-1 to North Macedonia, and though they should be better here, they are overall a weaker side.

Furthermore, with their route to qualification being even tougher than Wales’, and presumably lacking in confidence after their poor recent results, an early goal could well crush any resistance from the hosts.

If Wales play with the confidence and freedom they found last month against Croatia, they can win against any side in this group, and with Armenia’s quick start having tailed off so significantly, they have a great chance of taking all three points here.

Wales to win being as high as 1.90 looks to provide some very good value, whilst a more cautious double chance pick still acts as a small odds booster and provides some insurance which is always appreciated on European away days where anything could, and often does, happen.

Predictions:

🏆 Wales double chance @ 1.17

🏆 Wales to win @ 1.90

---

⚽ Goals stats: Goals likely with both sides struggling for clean sheets

Though Armenia’s last two group games have seen them fail to score, they had previously scored in all four group games to that point.

Their shocking 2-0 loss to Latvia is something of an outlier, the team had an extreme off-day, something surely not likely to happen again, especially when playing at home in a game they must win. The other game in which they failed to score was a tight 1-0 home defeat against Croatia, and there is no shame in losing to a side that has come third and second at the last two World Cups.

The Armenians have also conceded in every game so far, shipping two goals to Wales, Turkey and Latvia. Both teams to score has landed in four of their six games, whilst over 2.5 goals has landed in three.

Wales meanwhile have scored in every game they have played in these qualifiers bar one, away to group leading Turkey. They have scored twice or more in three of their last four, including that loss to Armenia at the Cardiff City Stadium earlier this year.

Similarly, the only side not to score against Wales so far has been Latvia, with Rob Page’s side conceding at least once in all four of their other qualifying games so far. Both teams to score may only have landed in three of their six games, but at 1.85, and considering the failures of both sides to keep clean sheets through this qualifying stage, it looks to represent excellent value.

Wales to continue their hot streak of scoring twice or more also looks appealing, as does over 2.5 goals; both are sitting at prices just over evens, and look to be the best value plays to boost your odds without backing a longshot.

Predictions:

⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.85

⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10

⚽ Over 1.5 Wales goals @ 2.10

---

🎯 Shooting stats: Wilson the key man for Wales, and Spertsyan a dark horse for the hosts

Disregarding Wales’ first outing in this qualification campaign, Harry Wilson has been right up there for shots. He was playing a more withdrawn role, but Rob Page allowing him to play in attacking midfield has been crucial to Wales’ success.

The Fulham midfielder has since had at least two shots in all five games, having 3+ in four of these games, and 4+ in three. He has also been very accurate when he has shot, with over half of his 19 shots being on target.

In his last two games he has had two and three shots on target respectively and will be full of confidence following his game-winning brace against Croatia in October. Kieffer Moore will act as a linkman, holding the ball up and laying it off to Wilson, who is not afraid to strike from distance. Expect him to be heavily involved and have plenty of shots on Saturday afternoon.

For Armenia, we are also looking at a midfielder, Eduard Spertsyan. The Krasnodar midfielder has had two or more shots in every game bar one, Armenia’s 1-0 defeat at the hands of Croatia. He has also completed 90 minutes in every game, meaning barring injury, he should have the full game to hit his lines.

Spertsyan is much less accurate than Harry Wilson, but that is to be expected comparing a defensive-minded midfielder to an attacking one. Despite this, he has still managed at least one shot on target in four of his six games so far, suggesting that he tends to pick his moments rather than take potshots.

One thing to note is that his highest shot figures have come against Latvia, (five and four), but having taken two shots in three of the remaining four games, two shots here certainly could be on the cards.

Predictions:

🚀 Harry Wilson to have 2+ shots @ 1.22

🎯 Harry Wilson to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.53

⚽ Harry Wilson to score anytime @ 4.40

🚀 Eduard Spertsyan to have 2+ shots @ 2.10

🎯 Eduard Spertsyan to have 1+ shots on target @ 2.0

---

🚩 Corner stats: Armenia look comfortable in the corner department

Both sides’ most recent group games have featured double figures for total corners, with Armenia recording 11, 13 and 13 in their last three, whilst Wales have notched 10 and 11 in their last two games.

However, this should not be an invitation for you to go crazy on the corner market, with both sides’ earlier group games seeing five corners or fewer in total in six of the seven remaining fixtures played so far.

Armenia do provide value in the corners market, having won at least four corners in five of their six games so far. With Wales’ corner numbers being generally low, the total corners market is best avoided.

This does provide an opportunity to back Armenia in the corner match bet market, however, having only been beaten twice in six attempts here, once by Turkey and once by Croatia. By comparison, Wales are yet to record a single win in this market, having lost five of their games, and drawing 5-5 with Croatia in their last outing, five being the most corners they have recorded in any of their six games.

Predictions:

🚩 Over 3.5 Armenia corners @ 1.36

🚩 Armenia to have the most corners @ 2.40

---

🛑 Fouls stats: Value to be found in fouls in what is sure to be a feisty affair

Ethan Ampadu is a familiar choice in the fouls market, especially for his national side. The young midfielder looks set to start and has so far failed to commit a foul just once in this qualifying campaign, having registered at least one foul in the other five games.

Ampadu notched a foul in the last meeting between these two sides, despite only four fouls being committed by the entire Welsh team. Expect more fouls here though, this game should get feisty with a draw doing nothing for either side’s qualification hopes.

The referee for this one is Benoit Bastien, who is above average for fouls per game and cards per game, compared to other referees in this qualifying campaign, so we are extremely unlikely to see a repeat of the deflated foul numbers from the first meeting.

Kieffer Moore is also a very appealing option, having committed at least one foul in three of his four starts for Wales in Group D. Moore, like Ampadu, also committed one of the four fouls in the fixture in Cardiff, and committed two fouls in the two games he has seen out the full 90 minutes in, against Latvia and Croatia.

With this being such a crucial game, he is again likely to see out the full game, providing ample opportunity for fouls.

Finally, we turn to Armenia, and Tigran Barseghyan in particular. The forward has only started three of Armenia’s six qualifiers, but he has committed a foul in all three, averaging 2.33 per game for the campaign.

He committed three fouls against both Turkey and Latvia, demonstrating that it is his own combative playstyle that leads to fouls, rather than game state or the quality of the opposition. Like the rest of his side, Barseghyan should be fired up for this one, which should mean chalking up more fouls.

Predictions:

🛑 Ethan Ampadu to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.17

🛑 Kieffer Moore to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.14

🛑 Kieffer Moore to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.80

---

🎁 Join Paddy Power Today, Bet £10 and Get £50 in Free Football Bet Builders

Sign up to Paddy Power, place a £10 bet on football at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater, and you will unlock £50 in Free Bets to use on Bet Builders.

New Customer offer. Place a min £10 bet on Football on odds of min 1.5 (1/2), get £50 in Free Bet Builders after the qualifying bet has been settled. Rewards valid for 30 days. SMS verification required. Only deposits via cards will qualify (Apple Pay excluded). T&Cs apply. Please Gamble Responsibly.

---

* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

---

18+ please gamble responsibly.

---