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Atletico Madrid bring back a 2-0 lead to the capital following a gutsy first leg win at the Nou Camp last week against Barcelona.
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Atletico Madrid v Barcelona Match Preview
Atletico Madrid head into this second leg with the advantage of a 2-goal lead from the first leg, though Simeone's side have been in inconsistent form in the lead-up. They had lost 3 consecutive matches before that first-leg result, and were beaten 2-1 by Sevilla at the weekend following heavy rotation. The Metropolitano has been a genuine fortress for them this season, however, and they will look to make home advantage count.
Simeone will be without Jan Oblak through injury, meaning Juan Musso continues in goal. David Hancko and Jose Gimenez are both sidelined, leaving Atletico Madrid short of options at centre back. Marc Pubill could partner Clement Lenglet in defence, while Koke returns from suspension and is expected to line up alongside Marcos Llorente, with Nahuel Molina shifting to right back.
Barcelona suffered an unfamiliar setback in the first leg, failing to score at home for the first time this season, but they responded convincingly with a 4-1 derby win over Espanyol. Hansi Flick's side lead La Liga by 9 points and have benefited from Real Madrid dropping points, leaving the title very much in their hands. The focus now shifts to overturning the deficit in Madrid.
The Catalans face their own selection issues for the second leg. Pau Cubarsi is suspended following his first-leg red card, and Gerard Martin went off at half-time against Espanyol. Jules Kounde is expected to start at right back with Ronald Araujo also coming into the backline. Pedri and Eric Garcia are likely in midfield, with Lamine Yamal, Fermin Lopez and Marcus Rashford supporting Robert Lewandowski up front. Raphinha remains absent, while Frenkie de Jong made a brief return from the bench at the weekend.
Simeone has experienced a similar situation already this season when Atletico Madrid won the Copa del Rey semi-final first leg against Barcelona 4-0, before losing the second leg 3-0 and still progressing. The margin here is narrower, meaning another 3-0 defeat would not be enough.
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Over 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 landed in all three prior head-to-head meetings this season (two Copa del Rey, one La Liga).
Despite playing 60+ minutes with ten men in the first leg, Barcelona still produced 18 shots and 1.1 xG, forcing Musso into seven saves.
Barcelona need at least three goals to progress, guaranteeing an attack-minded approach from the visitors.
Over 4.5 Cards
The first leg produced five cards (4 yellows and 1 red), and a red card has been shown in three of four head-to-head meetings this season.
Atletico will deploy tactical fouling and time-wasting to slow Barcelona's momentum with a Champions League semi-final on the line.
Barcelona's high-pressure intensity, combined with Simeone's dark art tactics, makes this a good game for cards.
Julian Alvarez to have 1+ Shots on Target
Alvarez has landed this selection in all three starts against Barcelona this season, consistently exploiting their high line.
In the first leg, he registered two shots, both on target, including a free-kick that found the top corner.
Barcelona committing bodies forward will open counter-attack space; Alvarez bagged a brace in near-identical circumstances against Spurs in the last 16.
Antoine Griezmann to be Fouled 1+ Times
Griezmann has been fouled in three of four matches against Barcelona this season, and he consistently performs in this fixture.
This selection has landed in six of his last ten starts across all competitions.
Barcelona's aggressive press (necessary to get goals quickly) increases the number of duels Griezmann will contest in space.
What Are The Best Free Bet Offers This Week?
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This week includes Champions League and EFL slates across Tuesday and Wednesday.
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