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Arsenal v Porto Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Arsenal v Porto Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Tuesday 12 March, 20242 min read
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Simon Winter

Simon is one of our Premier League specialists and he is laser-focussed on digging out the best value possible from games in England’s top tier. Simon loves to dabble in some of the more niche markets out there and he thrives at finding unique angles to beat the bookmakers. Based in the Republic of Ireland, Simon is a keen supporter of his local club, Wexford FC, alongside being a massive Premier League nut.

In this article...

Arsenal v Porto

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Kick Off: Tuesday 12th March at 20:00
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Competition: Champions League
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Watch Live: TNT Sports 1

Alongside our Arsenal v Porto bet builder tips, make sure you check out our Champions League bet builder tips, including those for Barcelona v Napoli, as well as plenty more free expert football betting predictions from all corners of the globe.

Our football betting cheat sheet tool will be on hand all weekend to guide you through every European game across all three competitions. Inside, we have everything you need to craft a perfect bet builder. Before you back your bet builder though, make sure to check out our free bet offers and a selection of the best bookmaker offers to help you bet smarter.

Arsenal haven’t reached the quarter-final of the Champions League since 2010 and they are at risk of falling short in Europe again as they attempt to overturn a one-goal deficit against Porto in the tournament’s Last 16 on Tuesday evening.

The Gunners were uncharacteristically toothless in their 1-0 first leg loss in Portugal on February 21st and while the contest’s defining moment was delivered in the 93rd minute by Galeno, Arsenal’s defeat was a deserved one following a limp display at the Estádio Do Dragão.

However, Arsenal’s chances of turning things around in North London feel strong and their run of four straight victories at the Emirates Stadium could set them up for more success against Sérgio Conceição’s dogged outfit.

Below, we’ve assembled an extensive list of Arsenal v Porto stats for Wednesday’s tie which should equip you with everything you need to approach the bet builder markets with confidence. We’ve also included some bet builder tips of our own if you require some extra inspiration.

Arsenal v Porto Cheat Sheet

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You can find Arsenal v Porto match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.

🏆 Match stats: Arsenal must go for the jugular

Arsenal looked unusually off-colour when they were edged out by Porto in dramatic fashion in the first leg and incredibly, the Gunners were unable to register a shot on target in a match for the first and only time this season when they failed to test Diogo Costa in last month’s reverse. However, a repeat performance in the second leg in North London feels unlikely and an Arsenal side that have routinely been razor-sharp in attack since the turn of the year. Mikel Arteta’s troops have scored at least twice in eight of their last nine assignments in all competitions and more joy in the final third could be in the offing here. Arsenal need to score twice again to turn their Last 16 tie on its head – a feat they managed to achieve in all but two of their 18 home fixtures in 2023/24 so far. The Gunners will have learned lessons from their first leg setback, so expect them to give a much better account of themselves this time around. Backing the Londoners to score over 1.5 times is our favoured approach with match result markets priced beyond the reach of value, while siding with the hosts in the half time result stakes could also be an option to pursue. Arsenal will need a quick start on Wednesday to get the home crowd involved and the Gunners have been scoring plenty of early goals of late, netting inside 20 minutes in five of their last seven games. Mikel Arteta’s trophy-chasers have also had their noses in front at the interval in all three of their Champions League home matches this season, so back that trend to continue here.

Predictions:

⚽ Over 1.5 Arsenal goals @ 1.33

🎯 Shooting stats: Look beyond the usual suspects for value

Though they didn’t make the most of several promising positions, Arsenal wingers Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli did pose problems for Porto in the first leg, but while there is a temptation to look to the wide attackers in the shots markets on Wednesday, better value is found elsewhere. Record signing Declan Rice has been marauding forward from midfield with more menace in recent weeks and his goal threat has been on the rise as a result. Alongside chipping in with six goal contributions (3G, 3A) in six appearances, the 25-year-old has been landing numerous efforts on target and Rice is available at a standoutprice to lodge at least one accurate attempt against Porto. Rejuvenated German Kai Havertz has seen his stock rise following productive recent outings. The ex-Chelsea star has supplied some clutch moments for the Gunners and the 24-year-old has clocked at least one shot on target in six of his last seven appearances. Havertz’s line-breaking runs and ability to find space in the box should make him a dangerous presence against Porto, while centre half Gabriel is worth tracking from set pieces. The Brazilian knows how to muscle his way to first contact from dead balls and the 26-year-old has aimed at least one shot at goal in seven of his last nine starts. The South American looks like a smart pick-up to let fly at least once again here.

Predictions:

⚽ Declan Rice to have 1+ shots on target @ 2.10

⚽ Kai Havertz to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.33

⚽ Gabriel to have 1+ shots @ 1.30

🚩 Corners stats: Lean on Arsenal to increase your chances

Arsenal have become possession-retention masters under the direction of Mikel Areta and despite their narrow first leg loss in Portugal last month, the Gunners controlled an impressive 64.8% of the ball. Their dominance of possession and of territory at the Estádio Do Dragão allowed them to run up a hefty corner haul (10-1) in the first leg and Arsenal are likely to lead from the front in that regard when they host Porto in London for the return fixture. Arsenal have lost the corner battle only once in their last 11 fixtures while their opponents have been restricted to winning one or fewer corners in three of their last four games. The Gunners should be expected to put the squeeze on Porto at the Emirates Stadium and that should open a couple of avenues worthy of exploration in the corners markets. Arsenal managed to win five or more corners in eight of their last nine tussles and backing them to beat the same target on Wednesday evening could be savvy, while a barrier of over 8.5 total corners should also be achievable. With a forward-thinking focus required from the first whistle, Arsenal will be primed to launch wave after wave of attack against Porto and their corner count should rise accordingly. Arsenal’s last 11 games saw an average of 9.72 corners awarded per 90 minutes.

Predictions:

⚽ Over 8.5 total corners @ 1.57

⚽ Over 4.5 Arsenal corners @ 1.29

🛑 Fouls stats: Battle between Kiwior and Conceição worth watching again

Arsenal players stuck their boot in with no shortage of enthusiasm in the first leg, though many of their challenges reeked of naivety and the Gunners committed a staggering 22 fouls in their loss, to Porto’s 14. Indeed, every single outfield Arsenal player committed at least one offence at the Estádio Do Dragão, though stand-in left back Jakub Kiwior looked particularly uncomfortable when he committed five fouls while marking livewire winger Francisco Conceição. 21-year-old Conceição responded in kind with three fouls of his own and the same head-to-head between the players could produce sparks again on Wednesday. We advise backing both players to draw the attention of the officials in London. Elsewhere, Porto full back Wendell, who committed two fouls in the first leg, could have his work cut out to keep the influential Bukayo Saka under wraps. The Arsenal wonderkid is being fouled at a rate of 1.9 and 2.3 times per game in the Premier League and Champions League respectively this term, making him the Gunners’ most hacked-at player in both competitions. Much of Arsenal’s play in the final third is geared towards getting Saka into one-on-one situations against his marker and if things go to plan for the hosts on Wednesday evening, Wendell’s foul count should be high again.

Predictions:

⚽ Jakub Kiwior to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.30

⚽ Francisco Conceição to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.91

⚽ Wendell to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.83

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