Arsenal looked unusually off-colour when they were edged out by Porto in dramatic fashion in the first leg and incredibly, the Gunners were unable to register a shot on target in a match for the first and only time this season when they failed to test Diogo Costa in last month’s reverse.

However, a repeat performance in the second leg in North London feels unlikely and an Arsenal side that have routinely been razor-sharp in attack since the turn of the year. Mikel Arteta’s troops have scored at least twice in eight of their last nine assignments in all competitions and more joy in the final third could be in the offing here.

Arsenal need to score twice again to turn their Last 16 tie on its head – a feat they managed to achieve in all but two of their 18 home fixtures in 2023/24 so far. The Gunners will have learned lessons from their first leg setback, so expect them to give a much better account of themselves this time around.

Backing the Londoners to score over 1.5 times is our favoured approach with match result markets priced beyond the reach of value, while siding with the hosts in the half time result stakes could also be an option to pursue.

Arsenal will need a quick start on Wednesday to get the home crowd involved and the Gunners have been scoring plenty of early goals of late, netting inside 20 minutes in five of their last seven games.
Mikel Arteta’s trophy-chasers have also had their noses in front at the interval in all three of their Champions League home matches this season, so back that trend to continue here.

Though they didn’t make the most of several promising positions, Arsenal wingers Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli did pose problems for Porto in the first leg, but while there is a temptation to look to the wide attackers in the shots markets on Wednesday, better value is found elsewhere.

Record signing Declan Rice has been marauding forward from midfield with more menace in recent weeks and his goal threat has been on the rise as a result. Alongside chipping in with six goal contributions (3G, 3A) in six appearances, the 25-year-old has been landing numerous efforts on target and Rice is available at a standoutprice to lodge at least one accurate attempt against Porto.

Rejuvenated German Kai Havertz has seen his stock rise following productive recent outings. The ex-Chelsea star has supplied some clutch moments for the Gunners and the 24-year-old has clocked at least one shot on target in six of his last seven appearances.

Havertz’s line-breaking runs and ability to find space in the box should make him a dangerous presence against Porto, while centre half Gabriel is worth tracking from set pieces.

The Brazilian knows how to muscle his way to first contact from dead balls and the 26-year-old has aimed at least one shot at goal in seven of his last nine starts. The South American looks like a smart pick-up to let fly at least once again here.

Arsenal have become possession-retention masters under the direction of Mikel Areta and despite their narrow first leg loss in Portugal last month, the Gunners controlled an impressive 64.8% of the ball.

Their dominance of possession and of territory at the Estádio Do Dragão allowed them to run up a hefty corner haul (10-1) in the first leg and Arsenal are likely to lead from the front in that regard when they host Porto in London for the return fixture.

Arsenal have lost the corner battle only once in their last 11 fixtures while their opponents have been restricted to winning one or fewer corners in three of their last four games. The Gunners should be expected to put the squeeze on Porto at the Emirates Stadium and that should open a couple of avenues worthy of exploration in the corners markets.

Arsenal managed to win five or more corners in eight of their last nine tussles and backing them to beat the same target on Wednesday evening could be savvy, while a barrier of over 8.5 total corners should also be achievable.

With a forward-thinking focus required from the first whistle, Arsenal will be primed to launch wave after wave of attack against Porto and their corner count should rise accordingly. Arsenal’s last 11 games saw an average of 9.72 corners awarded per 90 minutes.

Arsenal players stuck their boot in with no shortage of enthusiasm in the first leg, though many of their challenges reeked of naivety and the Gunners committed a staggering 22 fouls in their loss, to Porto’s 14.

Indeed, every single outfield Arsenal player committed at least one offence at the Estádio Do Dragão, though stand-in left back Jakub Kiwior looked particularly uncomfortable when he committed five fouls while marking livewire winger Francisco Conceição.

21-year-old Conceição responded in kind with three fouls of his own and the same head-to-head between the players could produce sparks again on Wednesday. We advise backing both players to draw the attention of the officials in London.

Elsewhere, Porto full back Wendell, who committed two fouls in the first leg, could have his work cut out to keep the influential Bukayo Saka under wraps. The Arsenal wonderkid is being fouled at a rate of 1.9 and 2.3 times per game in the Premier League and Champions League respectively this term, making him the Gunners’ most hacked-at player in both competitions.

Much of Arsenal’s play in the final third is geared towards getting Saka into one-on-one situations against his marker and if things go to plan for the hosts on Wednesday evening, Wendell’s foul count should be high again.