💎 Gem Bet: Eli Kroupi - Over 0.5 Fouls Committed @ 1.72 (Bet365)

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Eli Kroupi has only committed one foul across his 227 minutes of Premier League football for Bournemouth this season, but I expect this metric to rise significantly over the course of the season due to how Bournemouth play. 

The Cherries committed more fouls than any other side in the Premier League last season, and face off against the side that won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League last term.

Bournemouth boast the lowest PPDA in the Premier League (9.9) which tells us that they press more effectively than any other side in the top flight, Bournemouth also topped this category last season. 

It’s central to the way they play, Andoni encourages his side to win the ball as high up the pitch as possible and then turn that into a shooting opportunity - Bournemouth have seen 80 of their high turnovers in the Premier League result in shots, the second highest tally in the top flight behind Brighton (88).

If we look at the other Bournemouth players operating in the final third, they all boast foul records which reflect this aggressive pressing approach:

Antoine Semenyo - 2.40 fouls committed p/90
Marcus Tavernier - 1.05 fouls committed p/90
David Brooks - 1.16 fouls committed p/90

(25/26 PL Stats)

We can anticipate Kroupi’s numbers coming in line with the other Bournemouth forwards as he plays more games, and is embedded into the structure that Iraola wants to play. Evanilson led the line for Bournemouth last season and averaged 1.43 fouls committed per 90 across his 31 appearances in the Premier League.

Kroupi is expected to face off against Ezri Konsa here, who is one of the strongest centre backs in the Premier League when it comes to winning fouls - he’s priced at 1.25 to win a foul here and has won 11 fouls across his nine Premier League matches this term (1.26 per 90).

There is real value with this selection when backing with Bet365, the exact same pick is priced as low as 1.36 elsewhere, which is a more accurate pricing when considering the context around Kroupi’s low foul numbers so far this term.