Villa Park has been a hotbed for goals this season, with BTTS landing in 79% of league games. Aston Villa have conceded in all but 2 home league matches and their last 9 in all competitions have seen both teams score.

Chelsea’s away struggles continue, winless in their last 6 trips and conceding 11 goals in that span. However, their season-long scoring average on the road of 1.92 goals per game suggests they can still find the net. 3 of the last 4 Villa Park meetings between these sides have seen both teams score, reinforcing the trend.

Chelsea lead the Premier League in yellow cards and rank among the highest for fouls committed (11.84 per game). They have recorded 11 or more fouls in 9 of 13 away matches, and against a Villa side that draws 12.5 fouls per game at home, this looks highly likely. Prior to the midweek clash with Liverpool, the only team to commit fewer than 11 fouls at Villa Park this season were Manchester City – the league’s cleanest side.

Rogers’ aggressive playing style makes him a near certainty for at least 1 foul. He averages 1.4 fouls per game and has committed at least 1 in 10 of his last 12 matches, with multiple fouls in 8 of those. Chelsea’s midfield have drawn 16 fouls in their last 3 PL games, indicating a tricky afternoon ahead for the former Man City man.

McGinn is a magnet for fouls, drawing 1.73 per game overall, rising to 2.17 per 90 minutes. He has won at least 1 foul in his last 14 starts (excluding an injury-shortened cameo of 19 minutes against Leicester) and has drawn 2 or more in 12 of those. In the reverse fixture, he was fouled 5 times adding to the likelihood of this bet landing.

Chelsea lead the league in yellow cards (73, averaging 2.92 per game). While they’ve hit 3 or more in just 6 of 13 away matches, Villa’s ability to draw cards makes this more probable.

Villa’s opponents are averaging 3.54 yellow cards per game at home, with 5 of their last 7 visitors picking up at least 3 bookings. Referee Michael Oliver gave Chelsea 4 yellows in his only match officiating them this season and handed Villa’s opponents 3 in his sole Villa match.

Despite struggling with shot conversion (11.1%), Villa’s shot-on-target numbers surge at home. They average 5.21 per game at Villa Park, hitting 4 or more in all but 2 home league fixtures. Chelsea’s defensive frailties away from home further support this bet – they concede 4.92 shots on target per game, with 12 of 13 opponents hitting at least 4 against them (only Leicester failed to cover this bet in that sample).

Rogers has been in electric form, scoring 4 goals in his last 5 matches. But his fiery temperament is just as notable – he has 10 yellow cards this season, with 6 in his last 11 games.

In 9 matches where he has scored, he’s also been booked in 3 of them. As mentioned in the above Bet Builder, Rogers will be up against a dynamic Chelsea midfield that has drawn a combined 16 fouls in their last 3 PL games, proving the ultimate test of the young man’s discipline. Given the intensity of this clash too, Rogers is a prime candidate for either a goal, a booking, or both.

Palmer has been Chelsea’s most reliable attacking force, leading the team with 14 goals and 6 assists. Before the Brighton game, he registered at least 1 shot on target in 8 consecutive matches.

While he has only registered 2 or more in 3 of these fixtures, with Nicolas Jackson and Noni Madueke injured, Palmer will be Chelsea’s focal point in attack. His record against Villa reinforces this too, hitting the target 3, 1, 2, and 2 times in his last 4 starts against them.