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Everton v Aston Villa
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Kick Off: Wednesday 15th January at 19:30
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Competition: Premier League
David Moyes returns to the Goodison Park dugout after Sean Dyche was relieved from his duties with Everton sitting just 1 point above the drop zone with 18 games remaining. They welcome Unai Emery’s Aston Villa side who will be slightly disappointed with their league performances so far, currently sitting in 8th place but still only 4 points off the Champions League positions.
Neither side have found consistency over the busy festive period but the outlook for Villa looks a bit brighter. They’re unbeaten in their last 3 games in all competitions but Unai Emery will want to improve on their away record this campaign which has seen Villa win just 3 of their 9 away trips this season.
⭐ Everton v Aston Villa Best Bet
Everton have become frustrated in recent weeks as Sean Dyche’s tenure came to an end. This is reflected in their foul and card numbers over recent matches. Everton have been shown 3+ cards in 4 out of their last 5 games and have committed 9 or more fouls in each of these fixtures.
They’re averaging 2.0 cards per game and 11.5 fouls committed per 90 across the Premier League season as a whole but this increase in recent weeks is worth keeping an eye on, especially against a side like Aston Villa.
Aston Villa have drawn 11+ fouls in each of their last 3 games, they’re averaging 12.95 fouls drawn per game across the season making them one of the most consistently fouled sides in the league this season. Everton committed 12 fouls and received 4 yellow cards in the meeting between the sides at Villa Park earlier in the season.
The referee for this game is Samuel Barrott who is averaging 5.08 cards per game and 21.08 fouls per game in the Premier League this season.
🟢 Everton v Aston Villa #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
Aston Villa have scored 30 goals across their 20 Premier League games this season (1.5 per game). They’ve had few issues in finding the back of the net recently with 2+ goals scored in each of their last 3 games in all competitions. Aston Villa scored 3 goals with an xG of 2.12 in the meeting between these sides at Villa Park earlier in the season.
Villa are averaging 6.60 corners per game across their 20 Premier League games this season, it’s not a massive part of Unai Emery’s playbook but the introduction of a set-piece coach has made them value these situations more often. Their average drops slightly to 4.89 corners per game when looking at their away fixtures, but Everton are currently conceding 5.11 corners per game at Goodison Park this campaign, so there should be opportunities for Villa to match their seasonal average.
Everton are averaging 2.0 cards per game in the Premier League this season. Whilst we need this number to rise in this fixture, there is evidence over recent weeks that Everton are starting to rise up the ranks in their foul and card numbers. They’ve received 3+ cards in 4 out of their last 5 games and were shown 4 yellow cards in the initial meeting between these sides at Villa Park. With Moyes back in the dugout, the atmosphere could be electric, which could lead to fouls from the hosts.
👕 Everton v Aston Villa Predicted XI
🔍 Everton v Aston Villa Players to Watch
🟣 Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers has become crucial to this Aston Villa side, the attacking midfielder can play across the roles just behind the striker and has found the back of the net in each of his last 2 appearances in all competitions. He’s provided 9 goal contributions across his 19 Premier League appearances this season (6 goals, 3 assists), a record only bettered by Ollie Watkins in the Villa ranks this campaign.
Rogers is averaging 1.95 shots per 90 this season, he was bright in Villa’s 3-2 win over the Toffees earlier in the season where he had 3 attempts on goal with all 3 finding the target – Villa had 17 attempts overall. His physical frame should aid him against a combative Everton midfield of Gueye, Doucoure and Mangala.
🔵 James Tarkowski
Tarkowksi has committed 22 fouls across his 19 Premier League appearances this season (1.16 per 90). He’ll be up against Ollie Watkins who has had an eventful campaign so far this term with the striker currently averaging 1.58 fouls won per 90 and 1.31 fouls committed per 90 this season. He should have plenty of tussles with Tarkowski, the defender could struggle with Watkins’ speed and mobility.
Tarkowksi contested 8 duels and made the most tackles of any player (3) in the initial meeting between these sides at Villa Park earlier in the campaign. He should post similar underlying numbers in this contest which can translate into at least 1 foul for the 32-year-old.
🟣 Matty Cash
Matty Cash faces a tough task at Goodison Park up against Everton’s standout attacker in Iliman Ndiaye. Cash is averaging 1.45 fouls committed per 90 across his 13 Premier League appearances this season. Ndiaye has won 31 fouls across his 19 Premier League appearances this season (1.84 per 90) – more than any other Everton player by a considerable margin.
Whilst Everton are quite structured and rigid throughout, Ndiaye offers them something slightly different that can test Cash on a few occasions with both players’ foul numbers lining up nicely here. Cash didn’t feature in the initial meeting between the sides at Villa Park but his replacement in Bogarde committed 2 fouls and had to make 3 tackles against Ndiaye.
📂 Everton v Aston Villa Cheat Sheet
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💻 Everton v Aston Villa Form and Tactics
It’s difficult to assess what shape and direction David Moyes will go in with this Everton side as it’s his first game back in charge of the Toffees. Due to this, Everton will probably line up in a similar fashion to how they did under Sean Dyche, there is similarity in the play style of the two managers so this could suit Moyes. Everton rank 1st in the Premier League for long balls (26.2 per game) and 3rd for crosses (4.9 per game), so expect a continuation of this direct approach.
Everton could line up in a very rigid 4-2-3-1 shape with an emphasis on defensive solidity and getting their attacking joy from set pieces – 6 of Everton’s 15 goals this season have come from set pieces (40%). Don’t expect too much creativity from this Everton side, they rank bottom in the Premier League for xG (18.3) and 18th for shots on target per game (3.3).
Aston Villa will line up in a similar 4-2-3-1 shape on paper, but their style of play under Unai Emery is a lot more fluid, especially in attacking areas where the 3 behind Ollie Watkins are constantly rotating to move around the opposition. The main battle in this game will be in the midfield, Everton are effective in shutting down the space afforded to the opposition, especially at Goodison Park where they’ve managed to avoid defeat in 7/9 games this season – only conceding 10 goals.
It’s worth noting that Aston Villa’s performance levels do drop off away from home, they’ve only won 3 of their 9 away trips this season and have conceded 19 goals across these games – 6 more than they have at home despite playing 2 extra fixtures at Villa Park this term. If Villa can get the upper hand in midfield, they should be able to take something from this game, but it should be low scoring with Everton sticking to their defensive principles even under a new manager.
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🏁 Everton v Aston Villa Ref Watch
- Referee: Samuel Barrott
- Barrott is producing more yellow cards per game in the Premier League this season than the majority of Premier League referees who sit around the 3.0-4.0 mark for cards per game. This is likely due to the inexperience of Barrott who only started officiating games at the top level last season.
| Average Cards (Y/R) | 5.13/0.00 |
| Fouls Given | 21.80 |
| Penalties | 0.62 |
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