Leeds have struggled all year away from home. In the league they have only won once, away against Liverpool, and they have lost 5 of their 8. Even in the cups they have struggled away from home, they lost to Wolves in the Carabao Cup and their disappointing draw with Cardiff last week was no improvement. While a couple of new signings have come in for Leeds, they are not at the level where they could inspire a turnaround in Leeds’ form. Aston Villa will be desperate to bounce back after the Stevenage result but that game was affected by Leander Dendoncker’s red card. Since Emery’s arrival at the club, the only league game Aston Villa have lost on xG was against Liverpool, and against Spurs, Manchester United, Brighton and Wolves they were the better team. For Leeds to come to Villa Park and win will likely be too much for them, so I am backing Aston Villa or draw here.

Aston Villa’s recent form has lifted them up to 11th in the league, comfortably above the relegation zone. This means Emery can set up his Villa team to play the way he likes without worrying about the danger of relegation. While Villa’s last 2 league matches have seen 2 goals, these are the only matches with under 2.5 goals in Emery’s time in charge. In Emery’s 7 games in charge, both teams have scored in 6 of the matches, with their 2-0 win over Spurs the only exception.

Leeds are in a similar boat recently, both teams have scored in 7 of their last 9 matches. Leeds always create good chances for themselves but shipping goals has been a major issue for them this season. Leeds need points and will chase goals throughout the match and Villa know a win will put them level on points with Chelsea, both teams will push to win this game. With their recent records it seems very likely both teams score in this match.

Rodrigo has an unbelievable season for Leeds so far. He has scored 10 goals in the league so far this season, meaning he is currently the league’s 5th highest scorer. Rodrigo has averaged 1.36 shots on target per 90 (as per the Cheat Sheet above) so far this season and is in great form right now.

He scored against Cardiff as well as having a penalty saved, meaning he has now scored 5 goals in his last 7 matches for Leeds and in the last 5 matches where Leeds have scored, he has been on the scoresheet 4 of the times. He has 13 shots on target in his last 8 matches for Leeds, only failing to hit the target against Manchester City over this period of time. I expect this form to continue into this match and he should have at least 1 shot on target in this game.

Leeds aren’t renowned for their ability to retain possession, especially away from home, so I would expect a game here that is pretty equal in possession, with Aston Villa possibly having slightly more. Douglas Luiz is one of Aston Villa’s key players despite the fact that he often goes under the radar and has averaged 54.3 passes attempted per 90 so far this season.

Of course a lot of his matches were under former manager Steven Gerrard, but even recently under Unai Emery his passing numbers are impressive. Luiz has attempted over 50 passes in 2 of the 4 matches he has played at least 70 minutes in under Emery. Against Spurs, when Villa had just 41% possession and Douglas Luiz was subbed with around 10 minutes to play he still attempted 52 passes. The only time he didn’t even get close to the 50 mark was against Brighton when Villa had just 35% possession. In this match where Villa are likely to have more of the ball, Douglas Luiz should see enough of the ball to attempt at least 50 passes in this match.