Aston Villa have scored in all 19 games since Unai Emery took over at the club, amassing at least one expected goal in all but three of those matches (his first, Manchester United, away at Manchester City and away at Stamford Bridge). Whilst they have conceded just two goals in their last seven, they have been fortunate in some games to do so. They conceded 1.6 xG at Everton, 2.1 at West Ham, 1.3 here against Bournemouth and a massive 2.1 at Chelsea. They have also been fortunate with their fixtures, playing none of the top-half in their last seven. Of Emery’s 17 games in charge, six have been against teams currently in the top half, and in those games, 11 of the 12 teams have scored. They have also conceded plenty of chances in those games, with their opponents having exactly 11 expected goals – an average of 1.83 xG per game.

Newcastle have been in fine scoring form, scoring at least two in their last five games. Both Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson would be easily capable of starting for most sides in the Premier League and to have the two of them competing seems to have driven them to try and better each other. Wilson has scored 10 goals in 1358 minutes (135.8 minutes per goal) and Isak is even better with 8 in 815 (101.9 minutes per goal. They have combined for eight goals and one assist between them in their last five games alone, and whilst only one is normally on the pitch, Eddie Howe showed last time out that they can play with both. Newcastle also have the best defensive record in the league, conceding just 21 in 29 and 12 in 15 on the road, but have looked much more vulnerable in recent weeks. In their last 11 matches in all competitions, they have conceded at least one in ten of them and conceded a total of 13 goals. The data suggests that this is not unfair, having conceded at least one expected goal in all but two of those league games (seven of nine).

Ollie Watkins is in the form of his life. He has scored 12 Premier League goals this season from 66 shots and 37 on target, from an average of 2.46 shots per game (1.38 on target). He has scored nine times in his last 11 games, having a shot on target in all but one of them. In that time he has had 31 shots with 19 on target. He has only ever played once at home to the Toon and that was in January 2021, where he scored once having had two shots – both on target. Last time out, Newcastle conceded four shots to Brentford striker Ivan Toney with two of those on target and the English striker also scored, having another one ruled out.

Aston Villa home games have averaged 9.87 corners per game this season, seeing at least ten corners in 47% of them, including in six of their last ten. In their last six home matches, there have been at least ten corners in four and at least 13 in two. In that time, they get an average of 4.17 corners per game but even more impressively, concede 6.83 per match – with the other side having at least eight in three of the six.

Newcastle have taken 198 corners this season, the most of any team ahead of Manchester City (194) and Arsenal (181). The Northern side average exactly six corners per game away from home and this selection has landed in 87% of their games away from home, including in each of their last ten and in nine of their last ten (home and away). Given Newcastle’s high corner count and Villa’s high corner conceded count, alternative selections could be over 4.5 (4/11) or over 5.5 (8/11) Newcastle corners, or Newcastle corner match bet (1/2).

Aston Villa games have averaged 4.10 cards this season, rising to 4.83 across their last six. Four or more cards have been shown in four of their last six matches and in six of their last ten at Villa Park. They have received at least two cards in 60% of their home matches and have drawn at least two in seven of their last ten here.

Newcastle games have averaged 3.93 cards this season, rising to 4.07 away from home. As visitors, there have been four or more cards shown in 53% of their games and in eight of their last 12. They have been shown two or more cards in four of their last six away games, and have drawn at least two in five of those six.

The referee for this one is John Brooks, who averages 3.63 cards per game across his career, rising to 4.58 in his 12 Premier League games this season, with this market landing in two-thirds of those games and at least three cards in 92% of them. In his last eight matches in the top flight, he has shown 38 cards with at least three in all of them and four or more in five. This is a hugely important game in both teams’ quests for European football and both will be desperate to win, which should see more cards shown.