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Atalanta v Fiorentina
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Kick Off: Sunday 2nd June at 17:00
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Competition: Serie A
The final match of the Serie A season pits Atalanta and Fiorentina against each other on Sunday, this game has been carried over beyond the end of the campaign because of the European exploits of these clubs.
While Atalanta won the Europa League, Fiorentina fell agonisingly short in the Europa Conference League on Wednesday night and will need to pick themselves up for their final match of the campaign. La Dea have the incentive of equalling their best Serie A finish if they can register a home win on Sunday evening.
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Atalanta v Fiorentina Best Bets
With a small, but significant, incentive to win, and confidence and freshness in their legs, expect a much changed Atalanta to overcome the Viola in this encounter. Odds of 1.44 for Atalanta to win are not big but reflect where the two teams find themselves at this juncture of the season.
As there is little riding on the match, the pressure is off and it should be a relatively open affair, so Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 looks a fair price, too.
📂 Atalanta v Fiorentina Cheat Sheet
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You can find Atalanta v Fiorentina match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
⚔️ Atalanta v Fiorentina Head-to-Head
Atalanta and Fiorentina have already met three times this season and while the Viola have won both games that were played in Florence, a 4-1 win for Gian Piero Gasperini’s side in the Coppa Italia a little over a month ago is the most emphatic in terms of the scoreline.
All three games were meaningful. There was no question of either side taking the two-legged cup encounter easy given it was the semi-final, which is reflected by the fact that both teams were virtually full strength in both legs. Teun Koopmeiners has scored the opening goal in two of the previous three fixtures, which he is priced at 7.50 to do so again, while Ademola Lookman has also scored a couple of goals in the previous meetings this season.
Curiously, Lucas Martinez Quarta has scored twice against Atalanta, despite netting only eight all season. Atalanta go into this game without the injured Gianluca Scamacca and Marten de Roon, who managed seven shots between them in the previous game. For Fiorentina, midfielder Giacomo Bonaventura is the only player to have multiple shots in every game, while Rolando Mandragora has been booked twice in his three starts against Atalanta.
📊 Atalanta Form and Stats
Atalanta might have been beaten in the Coppa Italia final by Juventus, but their form is excellent otherwise and there was no sign of them easing up following their Europa League triumph. They swept Torino away with a comfortable 3-0 win at the weekend for their sixth victory in seven games. They have also kept three successive clean sheets now, despite having to juggle an intense run of fixtures that has forced Gasperini into regular rotation.
Even if a big chunk of their usual starters are left out of this encounter, they have plenty of players match fit. Lookman is in strong form, having bagged a hat-trick in the Europa League final before netting again at the weekend and because he will not be competing at Euro 2024, the 26-year-old forward could be granted some significant game-time here.
As a team, Atalanta have generated more than 1.5 xG in seven of their last nine matches (excluding Coppa Italia). In each of those games, they have boasted a higher xG figure than their opponents. This has been achieved despite a high foul count, Gasperini’s side have accrued 16 fouls or more seven times in their last 11 games, and there was no relent against Torino as they committed 18 fouls.
📊 Fiorentina Form and Stats
Fiorentina were frustrated by offensive inefficiency in midweek as they lost 1-0 to Olympiacos despite fashioning 1.1 xG while their rivals managed just 0.7 xG over the course of 120 minutes.
The Viola have been performing above expectations in recent weeks, while creating a high volume of chances. In seven of their last ten matches across league and continental play, they have fashioned above 2 xG, while they have not conceded that figure since a 2-1 loss to Milan in March.
Nicolas Gonzalez was poor in front of goal in midweek, but the Argentine posts 0.54 goals per 90 in Serie A and has also scored in two of his last three league outings. He is 4.20 to find the net in this one, although his minutes are likely to be managed after extensive midweek use. Bonaventura is the other pertinent attacking threat in the squad, having netted eight times. A somewhat surprising omission from the Italy squad for Euro 2024, he may feel he has a point to prove in this encounter.
Look for fringe players to get significant minutes in this game, Jonathan Ikone and M’Bala Nzola are two to keep an eye on. The former has 2.11 shots and 0.81 shots on target per 90, with his fellow fringe forward posting 1.80 and 0.70 respectively in these categories. Nzola is also one to watch in the fouls market. With 2.15 free kicks conceded per 90 this season, he is the Fiorentina player most prone to giving away fouls.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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