It doesn’t take an expert to recognise that England have struggled to break down their opposition so far, despite their embarrassment of riches upfront. For many of those who have watched England’s previous World Cup and Euros campaigns under Southgate, this may not have come as a surprise. In five of their last ten knockout matches, they’ve mustered at most two shots on target, despite a fair few of these matches being against considerably weaker sides (Colombia, Sweden, Croatia, Italy and Slovenia). That said, the Three Lions have netted in every knockout game (10) under Southgate, and it would be a surprise if they didn’t on Saturday. Across these matches, five of them have gone to extra time, interestingly each of them at a 1-1 scoreline. Although the win-to-nil could appeal, it’s worth noting that England will be without the inform Marc Guehi whose absence could lead to more openings for the Swiss. Looking at the more recent form, four of Switzerland’s last seven competitive fixtures have ended 1-1, as have four of England’s last eight. Alternatively, the draw on its own is priced at 2.62 at the time of writing.

A winner in every knockout match during the Southgate era, over 1.5 goals is a safe but nonetheless great value bet builder selection. As mentioned, England have never failed to score in one of these games, while they’ve conceded in six. An average of 2.7 goals per game is encouraging as are the underlying numbers. Upon closer inspection, all of England’s last seven knockout matches have exceeded 1.5 total xG. England’s forwards have a reputation for being clinical with Bellingham outperforming his xG by over 6 goals last season for Real Madrid. There are suggestions that England may play a back 3 against Switzerland, allowing offensive wing backs to supply extra service to Harry Kane. Switzerland’s last six games have all had over 1.5 goals, to an average of 2.7. In nine of their ten qualifiers, the selection won and it landed in all of England’s.

Many punters find themselves in a very difficult position when it comes to the England games. They know the players, they’ve seen their success, but unfortunately, they’ve also witnessed their performances at the Euros so far. Backing England to win either half rather than the entire game guards against a poor start and an early goal conceded like we saw against Slovakia, while also covering you for a late lapse in concentration or perhaps more probably, the inevitable succumbing to the pressure they’ve been up against (like against Italy and Croatia in years gone by). Of the five occasions England have gone to extra time in this time period, backing them to win either half would have won on three occasions. Overall, it’s won in seven of their ten knockout matches, and all bar one of their qualifiers.