While Khalil Shakir will get a bit of a tougher matchup against Trent McDuffie for parts of this game, he just showed an ability to overcome a tough matchup with Marlon Humphrey last week. Despite a game where Josh Allen threw the least in his playoff career, Shakir managed to bring down 6 catches for 67 yards last week. He has 6 receptions in both there playoff games, posting more than double the targets of any other receiver on the team. When looking at the splits on paper, it becomes alarming just how much more usage Shakir has than his fellow receivers: • Khalil Shakir: 41 routes run, 13 targets • Keon Coleman: 30 routes, 4 targets • Mack Hollins: 27 routes, 4 targets • Curtis Samuel: 26 routes, 5 targets • Amari Cooper: 23 routes, 4 targets While they were leading by double digits in both of those games, they will likely be forced into more of a pass-heavy game script in this game. When Shakir faced the Cheifs in the regular season he posted 8 catches for 70 yards on 12 targets, despite also leading for a majority of that game. With a more neutral game script, I expect Shakir to excel as the Bills' #1 target in what should be a great game.

While it has been an absolute mess at the WR position for the Bills, I think Curtis Samuel’s short-yardage skillset makes him stand out against this blitz-happy Chiefs defense. Shakir will also be involved there but he gets the tougher matchup against Trent McDuffie. They’ve used Samuel in some creative including routes out of the backfield in both games so far. From @NextGenStats: the Chiefs' defense sacked C.J. Stroud 8.0 times, with pressures on more than half of his dropbacks (21 of 41, 51.2%). Across Steve Spagnuolo's 17 blitzes, the Chiefs had 12 pressures, including 8 from unblocked pass rushers. While the Bills offensive line is better, Spags is going to have some creative blitz packages for this one. Allen will need to get the ball out quickly to counteract this, and we’ve seen the Bills effectively use the WR screen game in those situations this year. When these teams faced earlier, Samuel had his best regular season game of the year going 5-58-1 on 6 targets. I see why people would run away from a team spread so thin at the position, but I think there are a lot of reasons to believe that Samuels's skillset could be important in this game.

Xavier Worthy has been one of my favorite players to back in the second half of the season, the only problem is deciding what market to back him in. His rushing usage is extremely interesting for a receiver, and his role in the red zone has been exciting to follow in the second half of the season. That being said, I think his receptions is his best market. He is one of the fastest guys in the league, but instead of using him as a deep threat they have taken advantage of that short area quickness in the screen game. Since this receiver room got fully healthy in Week 15, Xavier Worthy has averaged over 2 screen passes per game with 13 during that span. Getting easy short-yardage completions is key to cashing these receptions props, and Worthy runs great routes to do just that. When you look at the Bills' defense, they are going to play a lot of zone and cover 2, forcing Mahomes to beat them with shorter throws. The Chiefs have a lot of great weapons to do that, and Worthy is always used in creative ways to create mismatches against linebackers and safeties. A lot of people speculated that Deandre Hopkins might eat into his role in the postseason but in reality, Worthy still led the team in routes last week. He’s looked fantastic in the second half of the season and I expect the breakout to continue on Sunday.