• It is all about promotion at St. Andrews on Monday night, with Middlesbrough only a point above 3rd and Birmingham needing a win to keep their play-off hopes alive

• Birmingham have lost only once at home this season, back in October, and they are now unbeaten in 11 at St. Andrews

• Middlesbrough are aiming for their first promotion since 2016.

• After 34 games of that season, Boro were second with 67 points; now they sit second on 63

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📈 Birmingham v Middlesbrough Form & Stats

Birmingham have flirted with the play-offs on a couple of occasions this season, but without truly convincing that they will end up there. They were beaten emphatically by Millwall last time out; this was a big blow in their ambitions, but their home form has been the reason that they remain in contention for promotion.

They have suffered only one defeat at St. Andrews in the league all season, although there have been too many draws of late, including the 0-0 stalemate against West Brom last time out. They do still retain a highly dominant xG ratio at home, 1.97 xG for vs 0.92 xG against for a ratio of over 1 xG per match at home.

Middlesbrough won't be intimidated by this record, but it would be true to say that Kim Hellberg’s momentum has stalled of late. Their 1-3 defeat at Coventry just after Boro had hit the top of the league has since been followed up by home draws against two teams in the relegation zone, so fans are understandably jittery as the gap to third place has diminished considerably.

However, there remain a lot of positives for Boro. They did comfortably win the xG battle in both home draws; it was a case of not being able to convert their chances. There was a run like this under Hellberg a couple of months ago as well, but performances were maintained and the goals returned. Hellberg has a +0.44 xG differential across his reign as a whole so far, and it is +0.42 away from home, so they go to St. Andrews with every chance of combating a strong home team.

📔 Birmingham v Middlesbrough Formation & Team News

Birmingham are without Jhon Solis, who is suspended. This is a blow because he has had a big impact since his January arrival. There are also doubts over Kai Wagner and Paik, with both likely to miss out here.

There is also debate in the wide positions of Davies’ usual 4-2-3-1 formation, with a straight battle between Carlos Vicente and Patrick Roberts on the right and Ibrahim Osman and Demarai Gray on the left. August Priske is likely to lead the line, but another decision will be made between Marvin Ducksch and Jay Stansfield as the partner.

Hellberg will likely match up Birmingham with a 4-2-3-1, but there is a possibility of them going 4-2-2-2 and bringing in David Strelec to play with Tommy Conway up front.

Dael Fry is now fully fit, and the club captain could oust Luke Ayling from central defence to play alongside the impressive Adilson Malanda. The other debates, similarly to Birmingham, come in the wide forward positions. Jeremy Sarmiento has been pushing for a start, and with Alan Browne and Morgan Whittaker being somewhat ineffective recently, there could be some adjustments made there.

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