On paper, 1.36 for 8+ shots on target looks a horrible proposition, but the data is particularly compelling and follows a near constant trend. Across Bodo Glimt’s four Champions League away games this season, they’ve conceded 8, 9, 11, and 11 shots on target. This produces a monumental average of 9.75 shots on target per game. 

These shots on target numbers come as no surprise; Bodo Glimt have been conceding an average of 24.5 shots across those four games. The visitors may have somehow found a way to beat Atletico away from home, but defending doesn’t look like their strong suit, and I’m apprehensive about their ability to stop Inter from creating high-quality shooting opportunities. 

Based on the bookies' pricing, they think it’s less than even money that Inter will have 26+ shots on Tuesday. If they get anywhere near these numbers, 8+ shots on target will have a plausible chance of landing. All the data points towards a siege for 90 minutes, and this is independent of the fact that Inter are trying to overturn a two-goal deficit. 

Bodo Glimt have been more efficient at limiting their opposition offensively on their artificial pitch, but away games have been a different story. This tie is certainly not over yet, expect chaos.

With Bodo Glimt carrying a two-goal advantage from the first leg, every sign points to an absolute siege here. While the visitors may get their occasional chances to relieve pressure on the counter attack, they are likely to be under the cosh for the duration of 90 minutes. 

Indeed, when Atletico Madrid needed a win against Bodo on home turf, they racked up 12 corners and 27 shots. The visitors have conceded 7+ corners in every single Champions League away match this season, working out at an average of 9.25 corners per game.

While Bodo are typically quite an aggressive side, and incredibly brave off the ball, there will probably be a slight change in their approach given their two-goal advantage. I can see them playing deeper and looking to soak up more pressure than usual. Inter will have the tools to keep them boxed in for extended spells of the match, and this should create the necessary ingredients for corners.

Thuram should be a major focal point in Inter Milan’s attack tomorrow; there will be an emphasis on providing him with ammunition in the final third. His shooting numbers across the season have been statistically significant; he is averaging 3.64 shots per 90 in Serie A, but 4.44 shots per 90 in the Champions League. 

If we understand the circumstances and ramifications behind the match on Tuesday evening, it’s plausible to think Thuram could easily take on 6+ shots, consequently increasing the likelihood of him finding the net. The Inter Milan frontman has scored nine goals across Serie A and the Champions League this season. 

However, he’s not just a goalscoring threat; playing in a front two often gives him the chance to take on a creative role as well. He’s also managed four assists across Serie A and the Champions League. It’s going to be a huge challenge for Bodo Glimt to keep the ball out of the net, and with 13 goal contributions this season, Thuram is a likely candidate to increase that tally.

Dimarco typically plays at left wing-back, and while he provides a real creative threat on that side of the pitch, he also generates a goal threat by arriving in the box late. His positioning on the pitch is often more reflective of a winger or attacking midfielder, and this is why he’s able to unleash such a high volume of shots.

Inter Milan are likely to be ultra-attacking on Tuesday evening, and this will give Dimarco license to be extremely aggressive and advanced with his positioning. Di Marco has been averaging 2.84 shots per game 90 in the Champions League this season, with an average of 1.14 of those shots hitting the target per 90. Four out of his last five Champions League matches have ended with him having at least a shot on target. 

There’s a very logical trail of reasoning to believe he’ll have a shot on target on Tuesday night, and I think this is handsomely priced as a bet builder addition.