This should be an entertaining contest between two nations who would have been hoping for such a tie a bit later on in the knockout stages.

I’ve been impressed with both, and I see this as a very even contest - the odds make Brazil favourites to qualify, but I wouldn’t be in a rush to back them to win this game; it could very well go the distance.

I do think we’ll see goals. Brazil’s backline is quite disorganised, and I think Morocco gave sides a blueprint when it comes to breaking them down. Brazil have seen 2+ goals in all three of their matches at the World Cup so far, and so have Japan - both sides are yet to lose in the tournament.

BTTS is another angle worth exploring, but for this bet builder, I think taking 2+ goals is a solid angle in what should be a competitive game in one of the more competitive Round of 32 clashes, as neither of these sides would look out of place in the quarter finals.

The one area that slightly concerns me with Japan is the lack of height in the side. They are technically a fantastic side and put together one of the best team goals I’ve seen in international football against Sweden last time out. 

That level of understanding and cohesion is rare in international football, but it doesn’t protect them from set pieces, which could be Brazil’s best avenue to goal here.

Japan are one of the smallest sides at the tournament, and sides have been trying to target this with Japan conceding 3+ corners in all three of their group games, including against Tunisia. 

Brazil have won 4+ corners in all three of their group games and do have aerial threats which can take advantage of the lack of height in this Japan side. Casemiro and Gabriel, in particular, stand out to me as players who could really pose a threat from corners, and I think Ancelotti will be factoring this into his game plan.

I’ve backed this angle regularly during the group stage of the World Cup, and it has landed in all three of Brazil’s games against Haiti, Scotland, and Morocco.

There is something not quite right about Brazil’s backline. Alisson was forced into making five saves against Scotland last time out, and a side with more quality in the final third than Steve Clarke’s side would have definitely punished Brazil’s casual nature at the back.

Alisson was required just as often for Brazil during qualifying, making 26 saves across just six starts (2.93 per 90) with a save percentage of 81.2%. Brazil clearly rely on the Liverpool goalkeeper, who is very experienced and, in my view, still world-class.

Matheus Cunha is improving with every game as Brazil’s striker, which is one of the most difficult roles to play in world football. 

There’s so much pressure on leading the line for a country like Brazil, where the expectations are so high, but Cunha has the personality to play this role and has performed well so far.

Cunha has scored three goals across his two starts at the World Cup, striking against Haiti and Scotland. Brazil obviously face a much tougher assignment here, but what really stands out for Cunha is just how many shots he’s able to get away. 

He’s had seven shots across these two starts (3.73 per 90), which may feel like an inflated figure given the small sample size, but this is actually an output that Cunha manages regularly.

Cunha managed 90 shots across his 29 starts for Manchester United during the 25/26 Premier League campaign (3.24 per 90), seeing 35 of these efforts find the target (1.26 per 90). He’s not very considerate with these efforts, which actually plays to our advantage as he’s willing to take on speculative efforts from a distance.

Bruno Guimaraes has always been really good when it comes to winning fouls, drawing 2+ fouls in all three of his World Cup games so far.

Guimaraes is really strong and difficult to knock off the ball. I’ve already mentioned the difference in physicality and height between these sides, which I think will allow Brazil to gain control of this game at times and put Guimaraes in a few situations to win fouls.

Guimaraes started 16 games for Brazil during qualifying and was fouled 36 times (2.45 per 90). This lines up well with how often he wins fouls for Newcastle (2.75 per 90) and makes him an obvious candidate to win at least two fouls in this clash.

Vinicius Jr has really stepped up to the pressure at the World Cup so far. It may look like Brazil’s opponents have been relatively easy on paper, but this is a nation that hasn’t won the World Cup since 2002 - so delivering under this pressure is worth applauding, especially as Neymar is waiting in the shadows behind him.

Vinicius Jr has scored in all three games for Brazil so far, netting two goals against Scotland last time out. I really like how Ancelotti is using Vinicius Jr at the moment.

The Italian boss is very good at managing players with big egos, and Vinicius seems to really be responding to his instructions, which mainly involve allowing him to stay high up the pitch at all times, with Douglas Santos willing to do all the defensive work behind him.

This is probably something that an elite nation could expose with a bit of tactical mastery, but it does allow Vinicius to be a constant threat. He registered 34 goal contributions across 59 starts for Real Madrid during the 25/26 campaign and enters this clash with a lot of confidence.

Ayase Ueda is a very clever striker. His movement is incredible and subtle, to the point where he’s very difficult to track, and after seeing how Ismael Saibari easily cut through the centre back duo of Gabriel and Marquinhos, I think the Feyenoord forward has success here.

Ueda scored more goals than any other player in the Eredivisie during the 25/26 campaign (25), which was eight more than the next top scorer in the league. He managed 102 shots across his 31 starts (3.62 per 90), with an average of 1.62 shots on target per 90.

He’s already opened his account at the World Cup with a brace over Tunisia and has taken seven shots across his three starts so far (1.15 per 90). I give Japan more of a chance than the odds suggest in this tie and think Ueda can get chances against a Brazil backline that can be exposed when put under the spotlight.

Following on from my point about the lack of height in this Japan side, I think this is an excellent price for Gabriel to have a shot on target, given how good he is when it comes to attacking set pieces.

I haven’t seen many centre-backs dominate the box as much as Gabriel does from corners and set pieces. He’s really strong, but his movement is what sets him apart from other defenders who may just rely on their strength. 

He hasn’t quite had the opportunity to show this side of his game at the World Cup yet, but did get a shot away from a corner against Scotland last time out. I expect Brazil to register at least four corners in this game, so there should be more chances for Gabriel to have an attempt on target.

Gabriel managed 27 shots across his 30 starts for Arsenal during the 25/26 season (0.88 per 90), scoring three goals across these games. He doesn’t quite have the same delivery he gets at Arsenal, but he’s still a real danger from these situations, and the physical mismatch could be what separates these sides.

Daichi Kamada is going to have a very important role here if Japan are to progress from this round of the World Cup, and I can see him struggling at times with Brazil’s midfield trio of Casemiro, Paqueta, and Guimaraes - all of whom are very strong when it comes to winning fouls.

I’ve already touched on how good Guimaraes has been at winning fouls, winning 2+ fouls in all three of his matches so far, but Paqueta has also been pretty effective in this department, with 2+ fouls won in two of his three games at the World Cup so far. 

Kamada is quite a dogged player. He does have decent technical ability, but I think he’ll be more valuable to Japan here through his work when out of possession. He averaged 1.42 fouls committed per 90 across his 22 starts for Crystal Palace during the 25/26 campaign and also maintained an average of 1.23 fouls committed per 90 during qualifying for Japan.