💎 Gem Bet: Noni Madueke - Over 1.5 Shots @ 1.80 (Bet365)

This gem is best priced with bet365. Sign up here and get £30 in free bets when you back this gem with £10.

This price instantly stood out to me, it’s been priced quite generously due to Madueke’s inconsistent shot record of late - but I’m willing to take that on given what I know about Madueke having followed him closely at Chelsea and now Arsenal. 

Madueke has had to play as a deputy to Bukayo Saka this season, but now has an opportunity to get a run of games as Saka is set to be out injured until at least the end of February. It’s worth noting that Madueke is battling for a spot in the England squad, and probably has some work still to do to impress Tuchel given his inconsistent role in the Arsenal side this term. 

Madueke has had 13 shots across his nine starts in the Premier League this term, working out to an average of 1.67 shots per 90. This average is the guide for the price we’ve been offered here, but it isn’t totally reflective of Madueke’s true shot output. Madueke was one of Chelsea’s most dangerous attackers last season, only Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson generated a higher personal xG + xA than the winger - and most of that was due to how often Madueke took aim at goal. 

Madueke had 80 shots across his 27 starts in the Premier League last season (3.52 per 90) - only Cole Palmer had a higher shot average per 90 than Madueke for Chelsea last season. This shot volume shows that Madueke usually operates at a much higher shot output, which could come to the fore here with Brentford likely to sit quite deep in a game that Arsenal must win to keep their lead in the title race. 

Madueke started in Arsenal’s 2-0 win over Brentford earlier in the season, managing two shots in his 60 minutes on the pitch. One of those attempts managed to find the target as well, but given how erratic Madueke can be with his efforts - taking him for 2+ shots in this clash seems like a solid angle. 

There is excellent value with this angle when backing with Bet365, the exact same angle is priced as low as 1.17 with other major bookmakers.