Brentford are favourites for this one and rightly so. Their recent league form has been excellent and they are scoring plenty of goals. Last time out they beat Liverpool 3-1 and before that they beat West Ham by a 2-0 scoreline. At home this season they have only lost once (to league leaders Arsenal) and have scored 18 goals in their nine games. This is their best run of form in the top-flight in 85 years as they have gone six games unbeaten and they will be expected to extend that run here. The data shows that it is not undeserved as well. They have had at least one expected goal in their last 11 games and have failed to have one expected goal on just two occasions this season. In their three games against Liverpool, Spurs and Manchester City they had a massive 8.20 expected goals and will be looking to keep that up here. Ivan Toney should be back and available before a potential ban for betting breaches and so Thomas Frank will be looking to utilise him as much as possible at this stage.

Bournemouth are on a downwards spiral and look to be heading one way – back to the Championship. They have conceded 11 times in their last four away league games and have kept one away clean sheet in their last 23 Premier League games. No Premier League side has ever conceded more than Bournemouth’s 29 away goals at this stage of a season. This season, they have conceded at least two in eight of their nine games on the road and this selection has landed in five of their games. Goals have dried up and if that pattern continues, this price seems very generous at almost 2/1. What will concern Gary O’Neil is that these results have been deserved. In each of their last three since the break they have not had one expected goal but have conceded at least 1.63xG in all of them. Confidence and morale is low at the moment and Brentford are flying high suggesting that this should only go one way.

There were many raised eyebrows at Dominic Solanke’s price tag when he moved from Liverpool to Bournemouth and whilst they perhaps overpaid for him, he’s been a key part of their progress from the Championship to the Premier League. He has three goals (third top scorer) and three assists (second most assists) in the league so far here and is a key part of their attack. He averages the highest number of shots per 90 for Bournemouth with 2.08 per 90 and in the league this season he has had 31 shots in 15 starts, 14 of which have been on target. This selection has landed nine times in those games, including in each of his three starts in the Premier League since Christmas. Last week, at home to Burnley, he scored and had two shots – both of which were on target.

Brentford should dominate this game. They have fairly high home corner stats, averaging 4.67 corners per game here and have had at least four in 56% of their games – including in three of their last five. Bournemouth’s corners against stats are even higher. They concede an average of 7.33 corners per game and have conceded at least four in each of their games on the road this season, and eight or more in four of those nine games. Brentford will come out and attack Bournemouth, trying to put them under pressure early and this should see them get plenty of corners.