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Brentford v Liverpool
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Kick Off: Saturday 17th February at 12:30
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Competition: Premier League
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Watch Live: TNT Sports 1
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The early kick off this weekend sees Liverpool visit Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium, a fixture that has historically proved difficult for The Reds. Brentford have hosted Liverpool twice in the Premier League, winning 3-1 last January and snatching a draw in a spectacular 3-3 tie. However, given the recent strong form of Liverpool, they are likely to break this streak.
Liverpool are currently top of the table, although second place Manchester City are just two points behind and have a game in hand. Arsenal are also just two points away from Liverpool. This season looks to be one of the most closely-contested title races in history, meaning Liverpool cannot afford to drop points in this one.
Brentford have had a disappointing run recently, only winning four of their last 15 matches (4W 1D 10L). However, it is not all doom and gloom since the return of Ivan Toney, who has scored in three of his four matches for The Bees. Three points here would mean that Brentford jump to nine points clear of the relegation zone, easing some pressure for Thomas Frank’s side. Brentford will certainly not make this easy for Liverpool.
This article aims to break down the key stats and match-ups behind this clash, using data from the Brentford v Liverpool Cheat Sheet. If you like any of the selections, why not add them into your Brentford v Liverpool Bet Builder?
Brentford v Liverpool Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
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You can find Brentford v Liverpool match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match stats: Klopp to leave on a high
Liverpool are currently second favourites to win the league on Paddy Power, with title rivals Man City clear favourites in the eyes of the bookies. This season marks Klopp’s last at Liverpool; he will want to do all he can to add to his legacy.
Three points from this game is vital for Liverpool. Man City have a double gameweek coming up, playing both Chelsea and Brentford at home. With both these teams being out of form recently, it is likely City will take six points from these fixtures, which would put them four points above Liverpool if The Reds lose to Brentford, something Klopp cannot afford.
The Reds are on fine form, only losing once in their last 15 Premier League fixtures: an away defeat to Arsenal. As in previous seasons, Liverpool have capitalised on their world-class attack. They have the highest expected goals in the league (52.6) and average the second most goals per game (2.3). The Reds, despite missing Salah who was away on international duty, have scored the second most goals of any Premier League side in their last five matches (16).
On the other hand, Brentford are averaging a high number of goals conceded per game this season (1.70). Further, in three of their last five outings they have conceded three or more goals. Not only can Liverpool be expected to win this one, but are likely to do so in style as they average 2.29 goals per game.
Predictions:
⚽ Liverpool to win @ 1.57
⚽ Liverpool (-1 handicap) @ 2.40
⚽ Liverpool (-2 handicap) @ 4.50
🥅 Goal stats: Nunez’s impressive stats
Darwin Nunez ranks second in the Premier League for expected goals, accumulating 13.18 xG. This places him above fellow teammate Mohamed Salah, as well as in-form strikers Ollie Watkins and Dominic Solanke. A large chunk of this xG came against Chelsea a few weeks ago, where Nunez racked up 11 shots with five shots on target.
This game saw Nunez set an unfortunate record for the most times hitting the woodwork in a single match, being denied by the frame of the goal four times. Additionally, in four of his last five appearances he has taken at least two shots on target, and boasts a season average of 2.15 shots on target per 90 (the highest in the league). It is only a matter of time before the Uruguayan striker begins converting more of these chances into goals.
Predictions:
⚽ Darwin Nunez to score anytime @ 2.30
⚽ Darwin Nunez to have 2+ shots on target @ 1.91
🎯 Shooting stats: Wind-up merchant with a strong shooting record
Neal Maupay has been all over everyone’s Twitter timeline recently, especially after his spat with James Maddison after copying the Englishman’s darts celebration after scoring against Tottenham.
Nevertheless, the Brentford forward has found his shooting boots recently, managing at least one shot on target in each of his last six games (all competitions). Further, five of these six saw him find the back of the net, the one exception being last weekend against Wolves yet this game still saw him take three shots on target.
So far in the Premier League this season, Maupay has seen an average of 2.82 shots per match with 1.06 hitting the target, ranking him first and second on the Brentford v Liverpool Cheat Sheet respectively. What’s also worth mentioning is that Maupay thrives at the Gtech Community Stadium. Since signing for Brentford, he has been involved in a goal involvement in all bar one of his starts, and has managed at least one shot on target in each.
Predictions:
⚽ Neal Maupay to have 1+ shots on target @ 2.0
⚽ Neal Maupay to have 2+ shots @ 1.44
🛑 Fouls stats: Two Liverpool forwards on a red-hot fouling streak
Diogo Jota has an average of 2.01 fouls committed per match in the Premier League, and has now committed at least one foul in all of his last five matches. In fact, three of these five games saw him commit three fouls. Nunez has also committed at least one foul in each of his last five appearances, with three of these five games seeing him foul at least twice. His average this campaign is lower than Jota’s but still high at 1.23.
Nunez has also picked up a yellow card in each of his last four appearances in the league, and has a total of eight yellow cards so far, more than any other Liverpool player and the second highest in the Premier League. Despite his hot fouling streak Jota only has one yellow card, however also received a red card against Spurs back in September.
Last time Nunez played away against Brentford he picked up a yellow card, and last time Jota played at Brentford he committed a foul. Given these stats, you should not overlook Jota and Nunez in the foul markets.
Predictions:
⚽ Diogo Jota to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.17
⚽ Diogo Jota to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.91
⚽ Darwin Nunez to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.33
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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