Zian Flemming has had the near impossible job of leading the line for Burnley for most of the season, and it’s no surprise that he’s been left frustrated as a result. 

I always like backing strikers for foul involvements when I know that they’ll be at the head of a low block, it often means that the forward will be outnumbered and vulnerable to frustration as a result of repeatedly having to chase down lost causes.

Burnley committed 17 fouls when these sides met earlier in the season, with Brighton’s backline being on the end of three of these fouls. Flemming didn’t feature in that match, but this selection would have landed through Sub On Play On, as Broja committed a foul before his replacement covered the line. 

Flemming has committed 31 fouls across his 14 starts in the Premier League this season (2.34 per 90), showing how his underlying numbers match up with the context I mentioned earlier. Flemming also maintained an average of 2.11 fouls committed per 90 for Burnley in the Championship last season, suggesting that it is a core part of his game when combined with being the man to chase down lost causes.

There is good value with this angle when backing with bet365, the exact same angle is priced as low as 1.40 with other major bookmakers - Flemming is the shortest player in the market to commit a foul with most major bookmakers for this game.