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🟣 Championship Mid-Season Outright – NAP
🆙 Burnley to be Promoted @ 2.10
The Clarets have taken some time to hit their stride under Scott Parker, and there were rumours of discontent in the summer, but they have proven to be a ridiculously solid team.
They have conceded only 9 goals in 25 matches, and the data shows that the teams who get promoted in 2nd are often very defensively astute.
They recently went to their fellow newly-relegated side, Sheffield United, and came away with a good 2-0 victory, they have beaten Leeds away 1-0 as well, and they have also played Sunderland away. This means that Burnley have home advantage over all of their promotion rivals in the second half of the season.
Given their refusal to give anything away, it is difficult to see them falling away, even if they are cheating the xG gods a little bit.
🔵 Championship Mid-Season Outright – Next Best
⬇️ Cardiff to be Relegated @ 3.0
It did look as though the removal of Erol Bulut had rid Cardiff of their relegation concerns, but the Bluebirds have eventually slid back into the relegation places, and there isn’t a great deal of evidence supporting them to escape.
They are currently 23rd for goals scored and 20th for goals conceded. Performance-wise it is not much better, Cardiff are 22nd for xGF across the 23 matches, and 18th for xGA. So Cardiff deserve to be in the relegation fight, and so it is then a case of looking at their rivals.
Plymouth look poor, and are deserving favourites to finish bottom. Oxford have a lower budget, but comfortably defeated Cardiff on Boxing Day, and have a new manager to solidify them defensively. Portsmouth have shown improved performances, especially at home, Hull have appointed a new manager who looks competent, while Stoke look poor and in disarray, but always have a certain level of spending power that Cardiff can’t match.
For Cardiff to be a big slice of odds against in this market looks a generous price.
🔵 Championship Mid-Season Outright – Value Outsider
6️⃣ Coventry Top 6 Finish @ 11.0
This might be an overreaction on a small sample size, but Frank Lampard has seemed to unlock something in Coventry’s attack.
Whilst there are still some defensive concerns, if they can keep creating as many chances as they have under Lampard so far, they won’t be far off the play-off picture.
From a price perspective, Middlesbrough at 1.13, and West Brom (1.73) are currently odds-on, and only sit inside the play-offs by 1 point, for Boro, and goal difference, for Baggies. With Boro’s excellent performance data, but ability to throw away points, and with no guarantee that West Brom can get back into the top 6 under a new manager, there are at least 2 spots available.
Coventry are a long way off right now, but they are already joint-2nd in the league for xGF, as per Fotmob.
Their xGA is actually 5th in the league as well, so their performance data would have them well in the play-off picture (2nd on expected points), so if they continue in this vein and get the results that they deserve then the 11.0 could prove a good price later down the line.
⬇️ Below you can have a flick through our Championship outright predictions from pre-season, odds accurate from the time they were tipped, 1 top 2 pick and a relegation tip have aged particularly well.
🏆 To Finish in the Top 2 – Burnley
There is no real tip for the potential league winners, this is because the market has it just about right at this stage.
Leeds United are the correct favourites in the market. While it is our belief that they are the most likely team to go on and win the title, there are still enough doubts about them to make the price not worth taking.
They have a manager who, despite some flaws exposed last season, has a very strong record of winning this very title, along with a group of players who, at the time of writing, have resisted moves in order to remain at Elland Road. These decisions were, perhaps, influenced by the influx of cash and ambition with Red Bull joining the Yorkshire outfit as a minority shareholder, something that has certainly provided impetus, if not wings, to the off-season.
The reason that the majority of the key players returning is important is because this Championship doesn’t look as strong as last season. Where Daniel Farke’s Leeds were competing with Leicester, Kieran McKenna’s excellent Ipswich, and Southampton, they are now facing Scott Parker’s Burnley, Luton Town, and a couple of 2023/24’s non-play-off contending rivals in Middlesbrough and Coventry, at the top of the market for 2024/25.
In other words, a repeat of last year’s performance and points return could be sufficient to take the title this season. As 4.50 for a Leeds title looks skinny, getting a price for Burnley to finish in either 1st or 2nd looks better value.
The Clarets, should they succeed in this wager, would be confinrmed as very much a yo-yo club, but it would suit them just fine if Scott Parker is able to guide his new troops back into the Premier League.
In truth, Parker is one of the bigger question marks around the possibilities of promotion for the Turf Moor club. Off the back of a disappointing experiment with Club Brugge in Belgium, this could be Parker’s last chance to prove that he has the ability to manage with success at the highest level. In truth, he has been solid enough with good squads at Fulham and Bournemouth to get both promoted, and he could do a similar job here with an outstanding squad at Burnley.
They have retained many of the players who walked this league two seasons ago, with upgrades in many areas. Lyle Foster and Zeki Amdouni are joined by new man Andreas Hountondji, so they already have more options upfront than their title season, plus a ridiculous amount of talent out wide to support them.
Josh Cullen ran the show last time in the Championship but has Sander Berge, Josh Brownhill, and Han-Noah Massengo for company. The central defenders are also plentiful, Dara O’Shea has proven his class at this level, Jordan Beyer, Ameen Al-Dakhil, Hjalmar Ekdal, and Maxime Ésteve, are all names that would probably start for almost any other Championship club.
This squad of players should be shorter for automatic promotion. There is probably a concern in keeping this number of players happy, but Parker has managed big squads before at this level and has found the answers. We like his chances of doing so again.
🥈 Burnley to Finish in the Top 2 @ 4.20
🎩 To Finish in the Top 6 – Luton
The Hatters achieved a play-off position in both the 21/22 and 22/23 seasons, so these odds are suggesting that it is more likely that Luton can’t achieve something they last failed to do four seasons ago.
Approaching the 2024/25 season they have a proven manager who guided them out of the Championship through the play-offs last time and holds a high amount of caché with both his playing staff and the Kenilworth Road faithful.
Of course, Rob Edwards’ goodwill wouldn’t stretch too far if Luton were to start poorly, expectations have risen over time, but this should be fair. The recruitment tactics that Luton employed upon their promotion to the Premier League was to buy a lot of players who would be high-quality Championship performers, with half an eye on this potential situation.
Players such as Chiedozie Ogbene, Thomas Kaminski, Mads Andersen, Marvelous Nakamba, and Tahith Chong fit this bill precisely. Yes, they have lost Ross Barkley, but their bravery in taking Barkley on last summer has resulted in a nice fee at least.
Nine out of the last 12 (75%) relegated teams have gone on to finish inside the top six in the season afterwards in the Championship.
📈 Luton Town to Finish in the Top 6 @ 2.25
📈 To Finish in the Top 6 – Coventry
Coventry to finish in the Top 6 is a bet based upon faith in the Sky Blues under Mark Robins.
While a slow start put paid to Coventry’s top six chances last season, this was also a bit of a transition season having lost key players last summer, and reinvested that cash. Most fans would agree that they did okay with the money received for Gus Hamer and Viktor Gyokeres, but it can still take time to gel a bunch of new arrivals.
There have been more new arrivals this pre-season, and with Jack Rudoni and Oliver Dovin, they have targeted their recruitment well so far. Ephron Mason-Clark will add directness and more goals to their options in the wide forward areas as well.
There will likely be more to come from a recruitment perspective as well, but even with the squad as it is now, there is real quality in the spine, with Ben Sheaf likely to stay and be named club captain, and Ellis Simms and Haji Wright showing improvement through their debut seasons at Coventry.
If they can get off to a better start than they have in the last two campaigns then top six is very much on for Coventry.
📈 Coventry to Finish in the Top 6 @ 2.63
⬇️ To be Relegated – Cardiff
It is not a straightforward relegation picture this season with the promoted sides looking like they are doing some good positive business in the transfer market, and competent managers in charge as well. There are also a number of established Championship clubs who could struggle, Cardiff are one of those clubs.
Erol Bulut has agreed to stay on for this season, but it feels like an uneasy marriage at this stage. Bulut seems to be fairly demanding of his bosses, which is fine to an extent, but there is concern that if the club don’t deliver for him in the transfer market that he could walk.
There is no way of knowing if this would be a positive or a negative long term, but it would suggest, at the very least, that things were unsettled at the club, and, just as likely, that results aren’t going very well.
Looking at last season as a whole, Cardiff did really well in getting points on the board. Their performance data had them as a relegation candidate, their expected points ranked them 23rd, but they were never in realistic relegation danger.
This is probably not sustainable though, and a poor start could trigger a lot of things to happen which would make this price look very big indeed.
⬇️ Cardiff to be Relegated @ 4.50
⬇️ To Finish Bottom – Blackburn
Blackburn to finish 24th is a fairly speculative shout, but one that could represent a lot of value given the context.
On the face of it, Rovers could be a competent enough outfit at the level. They have decent players such as Dom Hyam, Hayden Carter, Sondre Tronstad, Lewis Travis, and Joe Rankin-Costello, in key areas of the pitch. However, they are losing Sammie Szmodics, who scored a vast number of their goals last season, and have already lost Sam Gallagher, who can be a very useful foil.
Forward reinforcements look to be on their way, with Mukhtar Gueye from Belgium, and Yuki Ohashi from Japan having completed medicals, but they represent unknown quantities. They could be transformative, but, equally, it may not work out for Rovers.
The squad is thin, as John Eustace himself has mentioned in press, and the support of the academy will be required. This has worked for Blackburn in the recent past, but is a risky strategy in itself.
The reason that Blackburn are strong contenders in this market, is because of their potential for implosion. The always icy relationship between fans and ownership is hanging by a thread at the moment, there is a court case in India that is due to come to a conclusion in the next month or so which may clarify matters, but if results start poorly then there will likely be protests and unrest in the fanbase.
There has been mass upheaval behind the scenes as well. Gregg Broughton is gone, there has been a change at head of recruitment, and head of academy, with a new structure employed in the decision-making processes. There is always a bedding-in period for this to work too.
Moreover, if results are hard to come by for Rovers, there is no clear path to improve that. John Eustace is a net positive to Rovers’ situation. He kept the club up last season by tightening them up defensively, and his record at Birmingham suggests he is a fairly safe pair of hands in the dugout.
If he leaves or is forced out, there is doubt that the decision makers at Ewood could improve their options in the head coach position to dig themselves out of trouble, a lá QPR and Sheffield Wednesday last season.
⬇️ Blackburn to Finish Bottom
You can back Blackburn to finish bottom at 10.0 on bet365.
The Championship is the crown jewel of the English Football League system and with the prize of promotion into the Premier League, it is a really tough league for many clubs to get out of.
Plenty of research has been undertaken to find the best value outright positions for the EFL Championship, so let’s dig into our EFL Championship predictions.
We’ll be all over the EFL this season, including our usual selection of EFL accumulator tips for every round of fixtures. It’s not just English football we cover on Andy’s Bet Club either, with a range of football betting tips & predictions on the site every day.
We have a litany of the top UK bookmakers on offer for you to join and build up your free bet credits, as well including our best accumulator bookmakers article.
There does seem to be a long term pattern emerging of recent Premier League teams being the dominant forces in the second tier.
Leicester City joined Burnley (22/23), Fulham (21/22), and Norwich (20/21) as teams to win the Championship having been relegated the season before.
Two of the three promotion places available have been taken by newly relegated teams in the past five seasons now, so it is definitely worthwhile looking at those teams.
At the other end, no teams that were promoted from League One were relegated from the Championship last season. That is not to say it cannot happen this season, of course, it is still a fact that far more promoted teams into the Championship finish in the bottom half than the top, despite Ipswich Town’s magnificent double promotion last time out.
Our League One outright predictions and League Two outright betting tips may also pique your interest ahead of the big kick-off, as well as our Golden Boot predictions.
You can see our experts’ Championship Golden Boot tips here, along with our League One top goalscorer tips and League Two Golden Boot predictions.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
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