Coventry v Blackburn Rovers

Blackburn are the outsiders for this match and whilst their away form hasn’t been spectacular there is no doubt that they are in confident mood at the moment. There has been plenty of doubt though about the venue for this match. As things stand it looks as though the match will indeed go ahead at Coventry’s Ricoh Arena, but the disruption and uncertainty could not have been good for preparation. 

Whilst Coventry probably are in a false position in the table by way of their games in hand, the Sky Blues haven’t been hitting their high standards so far this season. Callum O’Hare is steadily gaining fitness and may play a part here and Viktor Gyokeres is always a major threat, but the strength in depth behind their key talents has been shown to be slightly lacking in quality.

Interestingly, one of Blackburn’s improvements in the summer was to entice Dom Hyam to Ewood Park from Coventry. Hyam has since played almost every minute, as he did at Coventry, and has made a highly favourable impression on the Blackburn supporters. Hyam forms part of a back line that kept a fairly safe clean sheet away at Hull and although the xG data supports the theory that Blackburn are very much over performing, the matches are playing out that when Rovers take the lead, as they have in all of their wins, then they are being very difficult to penetrate. 

Jon Dahl Tomasson’s tactical flexibility is also coming to the fore as the season progresses. It is quite difficult to predict how Blackburn will lineup and how they will play. Various formations, with 3/4/5 man back lines, inverted wingbacks, and a narrow four man attack have all been used at various stages of the season. Quite the puzzle for opposition coaches to work out. 

There are human, tactical, and form reasons to like Blackburn at the prices as the outsiders. The best way to take advantage of this is to take the draw out as a void and take a chance on Blackburn to win it that way. 

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Luton Town v Reading

The price disparity here has tempted me in for another look to see if Reading can break their difficult away form luck. 

The Royals were definitely unfortunate not to get a penalty away at Burnley in stoppage time just before The Clarets themselves went on to get a winner. Obviously, without that turn of events Reading would’ve left Turf Moor with a share of the spoils and that would’ve been a very good point. 

Luton are probably a similar, if not slightly less high quality, opponent to face away from home but Reading should be able to take lots of positives from their recent showings if not the actual results. Narrow defeats at QPR and Burnley, as well as a resounding victory at home to Bristol City does not scream no hopers to me and I think Paul Ince’s side have it in them to hold pretty firm and give themselves a chance to get something out of the game. 

Luton were at home on the weekend and let a lead slip to Sunderland. In reality it was no less than the Black Cats deserved for a well balanced match with similar shots, chances, and xG data. Again, this match supports the theory that there is probably a greater chance of Reading being able to go to Kenilworth Road and have a good chance.

In terms of how I would expect the match to play out, if Reading can withstand likely early pressure from the hosts then that’s their chance. Luton tend to start quickly and on Saturday they generated over 1xG in the first half but managed only 0.2xG in the second half. 

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Hull v Middlesbrough 

The Flamingo Land Derby is a pretty big game for both sides at this moment in time. Both have had disappointing starts to the season and both have taken the step to remove the manager than began the season. Michael Carrick did not manage to make the perfect start with Boro at the weekend with a late Preston goal denying them anything at Deepdale. 

The Boro performance did have its encouraging moments though and Carrick would have been pleased to note that eight of his team’s nine shots were from inside the box, albeit half were blocked. This shows that Boro are able to get into decent positions, but the problem has been the same all season now that they have lacked a genuine marksman in the box. Chuba Akpom has been a revelation coming in from the cold and Duncan Watmore always gives it everything, but neither would have been described as prolific. Investments in Marcus Forss, Rodrigo Muniz, and Matthew Hoppe, have come to not very much at the moment either. 

Hull managed to put four goals past Rotherham and three past Blackpool recently but against a more organised defence at home to Blackburn they failed to lay much of a glove on them. Middlesbrough have remained fairly solid despite their problems and creating chances against them has been a problem for most teams. The onus is now on the front four of Pelkas, Slater, Doherty, and Longman, to create and score the goals for Hull. This worked away from home but pre-season no-one would’ve expected that it would be this quartet to be the key forward players. 

With the importance on staying out of trouble for both sides I expect this one to be a tight, cagey affair. Under 2.5 goals is a bigger price than I had anticipated and I’m happy to back that knowing that a 1-1 draw is a likely potential outcome as well as a narrow win either way. 

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Bristol City v Sheffield United

Saturday’s 1-1 draw with Swansea City saw the Robins score their 26^th goal of the season and concede their 27^th. The total of 53 goals across their 18 games so far averages out to 2.9 a game, with only their 0-0 draw against Coventry City featuring less than two goals. The front pairing of Nakhi Wells and Tommy Conway have scored seven and six league goals respectively, with promising attacking midfielder Antoine Semenyo scoring three and Rob Atkinson also providing three goals from the heart of defence. Jay Dasilva and Ross Sykes mostly recently featured as Bristol City’s dynamic wing-backs in a 3-4-1-2 formation, with Matthew James and Alex Scott looking to control midfield behind the frontline. The Robins can certainly find the back of the net, but are vulnerable out of possession as well.

Saturday’s 2-0 win at West Bromwich Albion was Sheffield United’s first victory in seven games, and their first clean sheet in the same period. With forwards Iliman Ndiaye and Oli McBurnie catching the eye with their goal scoring output, Paul Heckingbottom’s line-up utilised Ben Osborn and George Baldock in wing-back roles, with John Fleck, Oliver Norwood and Tommy Doyle forming the midfield trio. Bosnian defender Anel Ahmedhodžić has drawn plenty of praise since arriving in the summer from Malmö FF. His brace in a 4-0 win over Reading is still fondly remembered even two months on. Four points off the automatic promotion places and six points behind league leaders Burnley, Blades games have seen an average of 2.6 goals per game so far this season.

A chaotic Bristol City against a strong Sheffield United side certainly carries the potential for goals. The Blades could be fancied to take the points come full-time, but they will do well to keep their free-scoring opponents quiet. Bristol City are the league’s third top scorers, with Sheffield United the second. Plenty of attacking talent will be on display at Ashton Gate.

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Burnley v Rotherham 

Though a short price it is difficult to see how Burnley slip up here with the evidence to hand. 

Though this column has spoken recently about Burnley’s slightly hot goalscoring numbers, which were slightly better at 1.25xG this weekend against Reading, it is also about the opposition that you face anda visiting Rotherham are fairly ideal when you are the home side. 

In their away match at Cardiff on Saturday Rotherham registered only three shots, none of which were in the box. Cardiff have history this season of being able to do that to teams, but then so do Burnley themselves. Reading became the tenth consecutive side to register less than 1xG in a Championship match against Burnley so the data does not favour Rotherham getting many chances at Turf Moor. 

Meanwhile, Burnley rolled on to make it a clean sweep of home matches in which they have scored. Anass Zaroury is beginning to demonstrate why Vincent Kompany was so keen to bring him over from Belgium too, he has plenty of quality on the ball and is now showing that he knows where the net is too. It is a pretty reliable Burnley set of forwards who, yes may be over performing their chance data, but are generally doing so through quality rather than luck. 

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Birmingham City v Millwall

Issues off the field may still leave Birmingham City with half of their stadium open on a matchday, but that hasn’t prevented Blues from showcasing their strength under John Eustace. An impressive 2-0 win over high-flying Queens Park Rangers on Friday night featured an audacious goal from American centre-back Auston Trusty. It is the Arsenal loanee’s third goal in five league games. Emmanuel Longelo, the wing-back on loan from West Ham United, provided an excellent second goal, with John Ruddy stepping into the spotlight with an excellent save from a second-half penalty. Dion Sanderson and Harlee Dean complement Trusty in a three-man defence, with a midfield trio of Krystian Bielik, Hannibal Mejbri and Tahith Chong providing an excellent blend of technique, solidity and aggression. Scott Hogan scored 10 league goals for Birmingham City last season, and 17 games into 2022-23 sits on seven. Strike partner Troy Deeney is in the twilight of his career but still always likely to be the man stepping up to the penalty spot when needed.

Under John Eustace, there is a positivity around Birmingham City that hasn’t been seen since Gary Rowett was at the helm, and it is the 48-year-old’s Millwall who are the visitors to St. Andrew’s on Wednesday. A 1-0 defeat away at struggling Huddersfield knocked Millwall out of play-off places that they had done well to climb into. Tom Bradshaw, who recently netted a first-half hat-trick in a 3-0 win over Watford, leads the line in a 4-2-3-1. Andreas Voglsammer and Barnsley loanee Callum Styles have caught the eye in advanced midfield positions. 24-year-old Zian Flemming, signed in the summer from Fortuna Sittard, has showcased his ability to strike the ball from range and will need to be handled well by Birmingham’s central trio. Scott Malone and Dan McNamara can operate as dynamic full-backs, and Charlie Cresswell completed his first full 90 since returning at the weekend, partnering the giant Jake Cooper in the centre of defence.

Millwall may currently sit higher in the table, but the trip to St. Andrew’s provides a huge test. Birmingham City have taken four points from their last two home fixtures, firstly against current league leaders Burnley and then against Queens Park Rangers who currently sit third. With a lively midfield, impressive defence and buoyant if reduced crowd, this is a Blues team better than any we have seen for years. At home especially, they are one to watch.

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