A match between two teams who have fallen out of form at this particular time, and in a division such as this one, that can really hurt your league position and perhaps make things look worse than they truly are.

Preston were in the play-off places after their spectacular and convincing derby win over Blackburn in the first match after the World Cup break. However, despite that display there has been a marked drop-off in their performance levels and only one goal in three matches. Even more concerningly for The Lilywhites is that there is actually evidence of a decline in chance creation over the last few matches. From the 2.3xG generated against Blackburn, the drop-off reads 1.2xG vs QPR, 0.9xG vs Huddersfield and 0.6xG against West Brom.

However, they are a playing a side who rival them for difficulty in creating chances, Both teams tend to use one physical striker, with others playing off them, but neither Ched Evans nor Liam Delap are totally convincing in providing a good goal threat alongside that. Stoke have only created over 1xG in one match of the last five, and that was against a poor Huddersfield side.

Over the course of the season Stoke have averaged a 1.27xG per 90 at home, conceding 1.11xG per 90. Preston are generating just under 1xG per away match, conceding 1.12xG so both sides tend to keep it quite tight in this scenario. Stoke did well to match Burnley man-for-man in their last home game, but still struggled to generate attacking play despite winning turnovers in the opponents’ half.

There is not a lot of evidence for a goal laden start to the new year at the Bet365 Stadium so siding with the unders here is the recommended play.

Going with form Middlesbrough are deserving favourites at St. Andrews. The impact that Michael Carrick has had on the Teessiders has been remarkable in terms of the change of results that are powering Boro up the table.

The underlying numbers for Boro have never been bad though. Even when it appeared that Chris Wilder’s team had lost it and the reign was petering out, the data suggested that the performances weren’t that bad. The players in the squad are of a good quality, the make-up of the team made a lot of sense, but the results weren’t falling in their favour or there were poor decisions made on the pitch that led to too many points being dropped. This run is righting those wrongs.

They were slightly fortunate to be on the side of a refereeing decision that changed the match against Blackburn but the quality of Riley McGree’s winner was deserving of winning any game. Carrick is showing good adaptability to change tactics for specific situations, but at the same time he has been consistent in his selections. The team are showing flexibility and good tactical understanding within games as well. There is enough depth on the bench to make meaningful changes in most areas of the pitch so they may be less affected by the chaos of the Christmas schedule.

This does not apply to Birmingham. The Blues have a very small squad that John Eustace has done very well to utilise as well as he has done this season so far. There are signs though in recent matches that opponents have slightly figured them out and found a way to keep them at arm’s length. Burnley can do that to anyone of course, especially at Turf Moor, but to have Hull City come to St. Andrews and do similar would’ve cast doubts in minds.

Middlesbrough have been great entertainers both attacking and defensively of late. I can definitely see them scoring at least once here but I don’t think that Birmingham have the options at the moment to pose as much threat. The price is such that we can cover the draw by placing Middlesbrough to win Draw No Bet to offset the possibility that Birmingham are able to keep it tight or score a goal themselves.