Birmingham City v Wigan Athletic

 The way that this match most likely plays out in my opinion is slightly attritional. Both teams are usually set up to cede possession and play on transition but it goes without saying that someone will have to take the initiative.

That team is more likely to be Birmingham just as a result of the home crowd as much as anything, but there are a definite lack of attacking weapons available for John Eustae to use. The Blues have generated just 2.9xG over their four matches in the league so far, so creatively they are a bit stale and unable to provide Scott Hogan with the chances he needs to thrive.

With their 3 goals it is not as if Birmingham are massively overperforming their xG either so we cannot point to some extraordinary finishing or a striker in red hot form to compensate for the lack of chances. More bad news for Blues comes in the fact that Leam Richardson is a pretty switched on coach and will have dived into Birmingham’s structure for a strong plan to shut Blues down. Previously, WIgan have kept a clean sheet against Preston but also limited Norwich and Bristol City, two of the best attacking teams in the league, to one goal each and with around 1 xG conceded to match.

So, with Blues not expected to score many goals, the gates must be open for Wigan to exploit? Not necessarily. Similar problems beset The Latics too. Only 2 goals in 3 matches, but there is slightly more to be optimistic about in the xG data. 4.6xG generated from the 3 matches obviously works out at over a goal’s worth of chances created per match so far but a strikeforce of Josh Magennis, Will Keane, Callum Lang and Stephen Humphreys has struggled with the step up. This is the reason that Nathan Broadhead and Ashley Fletcher have been brought in this week, but it is unclear how much of a part either will play in this match.

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Burnley v Blackpool

Burnley have been one of the most statistically dominant teams in the Championship in its early stages. Kompany has installed a possession-hungry style that has enabled the Clarets to control games, but as is so often the way, this hasn’t resulted in goals and wins. 

Having watched them live last week against Watford the problem appears to be getting themselves really clear cut chances. However, there have been many examples of teams dominating possession and achieving promotion. Fulham the most recent example, Bournemouth also tended to control matches, especially at home. 

With Jay Rodriguez back fit and leading the line there should be some more sharpness and goalscoring ability in that position. Burnley do need to organise what they want to do in the wider, supporting attacking positions but there is plenty of talent there to provide and score. Josh Brownhill is also a potential bet as a goalscorer as he is the midfielder getting himself into the box most often. 

Blackpool have problems in midfield in the lead up to this match. The midfield pairing that were impressive in their win last week, Lewis Fiorini and Charlie Patino, look to be out for a few weeks at least. Whilst Kenny Dougall has proven himself as a good, industrious Championship midfielder he probably won’t be able to prevent Burnley taking control of this area. 

Blackpool are going to be slightly uncertain about the way they want to attack as well without their chief ball progressors in midfield. One option may now be to go a bit longer because Gary Madine is back available but how does that fit with the way they have been playing recently? 

The numbers need to align with Burnley sooner or later and taking advantage of an injury ravaged Blackpool seems to be a good chance for this to occur. 

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Preston v Watford

It has been something of a tumultuous week for Watford. A relatively disappointing draw in midweek has been followed by continuing speculation as to exactly how many of their star forwards they will be left with after the window closes. 

Ismaila Sarr and Joao Pedro have both been the subject of bids and it seems as though the Watford fan base will be up in arms if both are allowed to leave. As it stands though Joao Pedro is in the squad and the team is likely to be similar to the one that fought out that draw at Birmingham. 

The concern that I have for that Watford XI is that there are a few players still finding their feet at the club and in the league. Vakoun Bayo, Yaser Asprilla and Rey Manaj are undoubtedly talented and may well be the next off the production line in terms of earning the club big fees, but it may leave them vulnerable in the short term, especially against a team like Preston. 

It would be fair to say that Ryan Lowe’s men have been pretty unfortunate so far this season. xPts would have The Lilywhites top of the league after four games and they have generated 5.6xG for their solitary goal. To be on six points despite only scoring once is testament to their incredible defensive performance. 

Surely though it is only a matter of time until the numbers begin to align for Preston. However, the beauty of this bet is that they don’t need to score for the double chance to land, as in all of their previous fixtures. 

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Sheffield United vs Blackburn

This isn’t solely a reaction to this midweek but those performances, against Sunderland and Reading respectively, do illustrate the reason to be with Sheffield United in this fixture. 

The Blades may have been slightly fortunate to see Sunderland go down to ten men in the first half, but they displayed ever more signs that their football is coming together this season. Anel Ahmedhodzic was absolutely superb. From heading in the opening goal, to assisting the second from the byline, the former Malmo man was everywhere and behind so much good work for United. 

That Rovers tried so hard to get Ahmedhodzic themselves might be a bit of a sore point. Rovers are right on the bare bones in defence at the moment with Daniel Ayala having to play every minute and 17-year-old Ash Phillips taking his first steps in the pro game. Callum Brittain is still getting up to speed in terms of the intensity required. Meanwhile, on the left of the defence I can see Harry Pickering getting picked on by the Sheffield United rotation of Ahmedhodzic, George Baldock & Sander Berge. That inside-left channel will be key in this match. 

In truth, Wednesday’s reversal against Reading was deserved for Rovers. Still sitting top of the embryonic league table despite the 3-0 loss, Jon Dahl Tomasson’s men have only created 2xG across their 4 games and have lost the xG battle in every match so far. Partially this is due to game state, but it does serve to illustrate how few chances Rovers are creating and that needs to change soon, but I struggle to see it happening at Brammall Lane where United’s defence is so strong.

The Blades are getting their depth back slowly but surely with Oli McBurnie now nearing a return as well. Billy Sharp is back in the XI and James McAtee made an impressive debut in midweek helping the transition of the ball through the centre of the team. Having a threat there then makes the wide channels and half-spaces that they love to build in even more dangerous. 

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