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Chelsea v Crystal Palace 4/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Chelsea v Crystal Palace 4/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Saturday 16 August, 20254 min read
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Ramis Ibrahim

Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.

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Chelsea take on Crystal Palace at Stamford Bridge with the Blues boasting the 2nd-best record in Premier League history on the opening day, only behind Manchester United.

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Chelsea v Crystal Palace Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Chelsea v Crystal Palace
  • Premier League
  • 14:00
5 Selections @ 4.84

Jean-Philippe Mateta to be Fouled 1+ Times

Mateta won 28 fouls across his 33 starts in the Premier League last season (0.95 per 90) which is already a pretty steady fouls won record, but there is reason to believe that this could increase here.

Mateta was fouled at least once in both meetings with Chelsea last season. We’ve just seen him harass Ibrahima Konate and Virgil van Dijk in the Community Shield, which was a game in which Mateta was fouled twice, more than any other player on the pitch. He won those fouls despite having the fewest touches of any player in the game (16), which shows that Mateta doesn’t need to constantly be involved in the game to be a handful.

Mateta was fouled three times in this fixture last season, up against a centre back pairing of Wesley Fofana and Levi Colwill - neither of whom are expected to start here. Colwill is out for the season following an ACL injury, which means Chelsea are likely to line up with Benoit Badiashille and Trevoh Chalobah at the back, who are players that could struggle with the physicality of Mateta.

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Jean-Philippe Mateta to have 1+ Shots on Target

Mateta scored from the penalty spot against Liverpool in the Community Shield and had three shots in the game. We’ve already mentioned how effective Mateta can be without seeing the ball for large sections of the game, a trait of a top striker.

Mateta scored three goals in pre-season for Crystal Palace so he comes into the game with momentum. He also scored against Chelsea in the 1-1 draw between the sides back in January. His role on penalties in the Community Shield would also suggest that he’s on spot kicks this season which could be notable seeing as Chelsea conceded six penalties in the Premier League last season.

Mateta had 70 shots in the Premier League last season (2.37 per 90) with 33 of those attempts finding the target (1.12 per 90). Palace’s direct approach should unsettle a Chelsea backline which is without its best defender.

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Cole Palmer to have 1+ Shots on Target

Cole Palmer wasn’t at his sparkling best in the second half of last season, but reminded everyone of his quality in the Conference League final and then the Club World Cup final as he carried Chelsea to both trophies - the first trophies won under Enzo Maresca and the new ownership.

The signings of Estevao and Jamie Gittens mean that we can expect to see Palmer in a central role for the majority of the season, which should aid his already promising shot numbers from last campaign. Palmer had 126 shots across his 37 Premier League appearances last term (3.55 per 90) with 51 of those attempts finding the target (1.44 per 90).

Palmer scored against Palace in the most recent head-to-head clash between the sides at Selhurst Park back in January and also found the target against the Eagles when they visited Stamford Bridge.

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Moises Caicedo to Commit 2+ Fouls

I still don’t think Caicedo gets the credit he deserves, I think he’s the best defensive midfielder in the world, but I will concede that he can be reckless. Caicedo contests so many duels and charges into so many tackles that giving away fouls is a natural byproduct of his position and role in this Chelsea side.

Enzo Maresca experimented with a midfield three at the Club World Cup to great success, the structure is a 3-1-3-3 when Chelsea have the ball, with Caicedo acting as the player shielding the three defenders. This allows Chelsea to flood the opposition's half with their attacking talent, but it does leave them a little vulnerable on the break against a direct side like Palace.

Caicedo committed 2+ fouls in both meetings between the sides last season, which further highlights how often the Ecuadorian ends up with a few fouls to his name. He averaged 1.88 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League last season, which was the highest average of any Chelsea player. Chelsea should also still be a little petulant this season with their young squad; the Blues picked up more yellow cards than any other side last season (99).

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Chelsea Goalkeeper to Make 2+ Saves

I’m still not 100% on Robert Sanchez as a keeper that can help you challenge for league titles, but his performances towards the end of last season helped me to see why Enzo Maresca is so adamant to stick with him. Sanchez is error-prone, but that isn’t all his fault - Chelsea take so many risks in build-up, only Southampton (51) made more errors leading to shots last season than Chelsea (45), so it is an issue with the build-up and backline as a whole, not just Sanchez on his own.

In the final 10 games of the Premier League season, Sanchez only conceded five goals. He was particularly impressive against Everton at Stamford Bridge, which was a key game for Chelsea in their pursuit of Champions League football - Sanchez wasn’t needed for most of the game but made three crucial saves right at the death to ensure Chelsea picked up all three points.

Sanchez was forced into making 95 saves in the Premier League last season (2.97 per 90) with a strong save percentage of 73.6%. Palace drew five saves from Sanchez at Selhurst Park and two at Stamford Bridge. I’m not saying that Sanchez is an elite keeper, but he has been written off a bit too early by many, especially when looking at his performances at the business end of last season and his save percentage from the previous campaign.

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Chelsea v Crystal Palace Best Longshot Bets
  • Chelsea v Crystal Palace
  • Premier League
  • 14:00
4 Selections @ 57.22

Joao Pedro to have 2+ Shots on Target

This is a selection that I will regularly be coming back to throughout the season, mainly because of Super Sub. Joao Pedro and Liam Delap are going to take turns leading the line for Chelsea this season, it looks like Pedro will be the main striker to start, but Delap offers a different profile which could prove invaluable in the latter stages of games, or if Pedro is nullified by the opposition.

Pedro has made a superb start to life at Chelsea, scoring a few goals at the Club World Cup to help Chelsea win the trophy and then following this up with some really promising performances in Chelsea’s friendly games against AC Milan and Bayer Leverkusen. Joao Pedro averaged 0.92 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League for Brighton last season but we can expect this metric to rise this year with the quality that Pedro is surrounded by which should improve service to the striker - Chelsea averaged 5.74 shots on target per game in the Premier League last season, only Liverpool had more attempts on target than the Blues.

Should Pedro just fall short of this mark, Chelsea have the perfect replacement in Liam Delap, who is always ultra-eager when he comes off the bench. He averaged 1.10 shots on target per 90 for Ipswich last season, which is an impressive record when playing for a newly-promoted side.

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Enzo Fernandez to Score or Assist

I make no apologies for my admiration of Enzo Fernandez. I still think people associate him a little with the player that first came into the club under Graham Potter and then Mauricio Pochettino, but Maresca has settled Fernandez into a consistent role and he has also emerged as a leader in this young Chelsea side.

Fernandez registered 26 goal contributions last season across his 53 appearances in all competitions, with 17 of those being assists. For context, Fernandez only registered 10 goal contributions across his 40 appearances in the 23/24 season and just two in 22 appearances in the 22/23 season. It is clear to see that Fernandez has developed, and he is now one of Chelsea’s attacking threats. We can look at backing him at a more appealing price than the likes of Palmer, Pedro and Gittens.

Chelsea are expected to play with a midfield three this season when the Blues are in possession. This was the approach they went with in the Club World Cup. Fernandez registered four goal contributions across his six starts in that competition, so this slight change shouldn’t impact his goal contribution numbers too much this term.

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Daniel Munoz to be Shown a Card

Oliver Glasner described Daniel Munoz as ‘the perfect Premier League player’ last season, and it’s easy to see why. He was an instant fit as soon as he arrived at the club, both in terms of Glasner’s system and the demands of the Premier League, which not every player can always match.

Munoz picked up 10 yellow cards in the Premier League last season, only Will Hughes (11) picked up more cautions for the Eagles last campaign. The Colombian wingback’s potential clash against Jamie Gittens really stands out to me here.

Should Enzo Maresca hand a Premier League debut to Jamie Gittens, it would raise the chances of Munoz picking up a caution. Gittens looked frighteningly quick in Chelsea’s two warm-up games against AC Milan and Bayer Leverkusen and can bring his promising fouls won record from the Bundesliga to the Premier League. Gittens won 44 fouls across his 21 starts for Dortmund in the Bundesliga last season (2.22 per 90) which is a record that suggests he can test Munoz on a few occasions here.

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Marc Guehi to have 1+ Shots

When I was looking through all the sides in the build-up to the season, the number of goals that Crystal Palace scored from set pieces last season really stood out to me. Everyone thinks of Arsenal when looking at sides that may be a threat from set pieces, but Crystal Palace scored 16 of their 51 goals from set pieces last season (31%) - the highest share of any side in the Premier League.

With that in mind, I’m looking at Marc Guehi to have a shot against his former club, seeing as he was the most threatening of Palace’s centre-backs last season. Guehi ended the season with five goal contributions (three goals, two assists) across his 34 appearances in the Premier League. He had 15 shots across those games (0.44 per 90), which is a solid average for a centre back.

I still think Chelsea are a bit vulnerable from set pieces. There isn’t a lot of height across the backline, and there may also be organisational issues now that Colwill has picked up an ACL injury and will be out all season. He’s easily Chelsea’s best centre back, so this is bound to have a knock-on effect.

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📂 Chelsea v Crystal Palace Cheat Sheet

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📈 Chelsea v Crystal Palace Form & Tactics

There are a lot of positive signs for Chelsea heading into the 25/26 season. Not only was Maresca able to comfortably secure the Conference League, which everyone expected, the Blues also became World Champions over the summer with their performance in the final, in particular, moving the bar for what is possible for Chelsea this season.

I think they’ll be in a title race alongside Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool, but there are a few concerns. The latest one being an ACL injury to Levi Colwill, which has ruled him out for the majority of the upcoming season. Colwill is Chelsea’s best defender, and it isn’t totally obvious who will step into his role with the ability of the new signing Jorrel Hato unknown at this point.

I also think the lack of pre-season will have an effect on Chelsea at some point. Their friendly wins against AC Milan and Bayer Leverkusen suggest that fatigue isn’t an issue at this point, but when the games start to stack up at Christmas, the number of games that Chelsea played last season (almost 70) could start to catch up with them.

I’d also say the picture looks pretty promising for Crystal Palace ahead of the new season. Their FA Cup win will have given the club real momentum, though they haven’t really followed that up as of yet in the transfer window and with Eberechi Eze and Marc Guehi still linked with moves away, it could very quickly become a concerning end of the window for the Eagles.

The main headlines concerning Palace over the summer were to do with the spat between Nottingham Forest, Lyon and John Textor over Palace’s involvement in the Europa League next season. As it is, Palace will play in the Conference League next season, having had their appeal to CAS rejected recently.


🏁 Ref Watch

Darren England

  • Darren England averaged 4.10 yellow cards per game in the Premier League last season.


📊 Chelsea v Crystal Palace Key Stats

  • Chelsea picked up the most yellow cards in the Premier League last season (99).

  • Only Liverpool (6.1) had more shots on target per game than Chelsea in the Premier League last season (5.7).

  • Stamford Bridge became a fortress again for Chelsea last season with the Blues losing just two of their 19 games at home last term. 

  • 31.3% of Palace’s goals in the Premier League came from set pieces last season. 

  • Palace have a torrid head-to-head record against Chelsea, failing to win against the Blues in their last 19 clashes - though they did draw both meetings between the sides last season. 

  • Palace scored more goals away from home than they did at Selhurst Park last season (27-24). 


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Andy's Bet Club is packed full of Expert Football Tips. We also have an easy-to-use Bet Builder Stats tool to help you conduct your own research. Look out for our Premier League Predictions this season.

These Chelsea v Crystal Palace Betting Stats provide further insight. Sunday’s packed - Ipswich v Southampton Bet Builder Tips, and Leeds v Everton Bet Builder Tips are ready. We’ve also got Quick Previews for Nottingham Forest v Brentford, Metz v Strasbourg Betting Tips, and Celta Vigo v Getafe Betting Tips. Sunday’s main event? Man United v Arsenal Betting Tips & Bet Builder Tips.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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