Chelsea really should have won the previous match between the teams, they won 2.1-1 on xG but lost 2-1. Chelsea are definitely improving, they got a deserved win at home to Crystal Palace and gave a good showing in their 0-0 draw with Liverpool. Potter has overseen 9 home matches as manager, while Chelsea have only won 5 of these, they have only dropped points in Potter’s first match in charge against Red Bull Salzburg, a draw with Manchester United and 1 goal losses to Manchester City and Arsenal. So since Potter’s first game, only the top 3 have stopped Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and they will want revenge against Fulham.

While Fulham have performed well this year, they have struggled away from home against the top teams. So far this season they have lost away matches to Arsenal, Spurs, Manchester City and Newcastle. Chelsea should be moving towards the standards of these teams with the huge number of new signings and gradual progression expected under Potter as a manager. Chelsea will want to take back the bragging rights in West London and I expect them to be good enough to win this match.

Fulham are one of the most attacking teams in the league but this means they leave a lot of gaps open defensively. Fulham concede 5.24 shots on target per 90, the second highest in the league and Chelsea had 10 shots on target in the previous match between the two teams a couple of weeks ago. In this match Kai Havertz had 2 shots on target as well as a third shot which was only stopped from a last-ditch block. Havertz has the most shots on target per 90 of any Chelsea player to play at least 5 matches at an average of 1.08.

Since Graham Potter has come into the club, Havertz has been one of the only players to have started almost every game. In matches where he has played at least 45 minutes under Potter, Havertz has had a shot on target in 7 out of 12 matches. Havertz is one of the only players where it is almost guaranteed that he will start and the Chelsea man will be a key threat in this match. Fulham give away plenty of shots on target and Havertz has more shots on target than any other Chelsea players so he looks good value for a shot on target in this match.

Youngster Benoit Badiashile arrived from Monaco in the January transfer window and has started brightly in the left centre back role. Back to back clean sheets against Liverpool and Palace, you couldn’t realistically ask for too much more.

Badiashile has shown his capabilities defensively, but he has been excellent on the ball which has caught my eye. His most impressive performance came at Anfield in the 0-0 draw where he attempted 82 passes, just shy of what the Leicester centre backs combined for at Anfield in Liverpool’s last home game before Chelsea. Fulham hold their own on their travels but struggle against the bigger sides in the league, allowing Newcastle 64% possession and 10 men Man City 73%. Badiashile averages the highest passes per 90 with 79.5 and I like him to have 70+ here.

If anyone is likely to be up for a London Derby, then it’s going to be Aleksander Mitrovic and I’m backing the Fulham number 9 to commit at least 1 foul. Per my cheat sheet Mitrovic averages 1.54 fouls committed and the last time he didn’t commit a foul in a Premier League game was the 15th of October against Bournemouth. In this stretch of 8 games, Mitrovic has committed 19 fouls.

Against Chelsea, I expect Mitrovic to be frustrated out of possession, particularly with Chelsea’s patient style with 57.9% possession. Furthermore, Badiashile and Thiago Silva average the most passes per 90 and see the majority of the ball which should see the Serbian in good position to be in the game and attempting to win the ball back. The last time Mitro started against Chelsea he had 1 foul and 2 committed in the game before that.