💎 Gem Bet: Bernardo Silva - 1+ Shots @ 1.80 (Bet365)

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Bernardo Silva scored against West Ham in his most recent Premier League appearance, having two shots in total in that clash as City drew 1-1 with West Ham. This has probably been priced alongside Silva’s shot average across the season (0.68 per 90), but City are expected to have around 15 shots in that clash - so taking Silva for just one effort at this price is an easy sell.

Silva has a pretty good record against Chelsea too, he’s had a shot in three of his last four appearances against the Blues - including scoring against Chelsea in an FA Cup semi final a few seasons ago. Silva is widely expected to leave the club at the end of the season, so you’d expect him to give his all in the final few games of the campaign as City look to secure another Premier League title.

City managed 14 shots when they played Chelsea at the Etihad earlier in the season, with Silva getting one effort away on that occasion. I think the pricing for City players to have a shot is a bit all over the place, Silva is more generously priced for a shot than Guehi (1.53), Nunes (1.61) and Ait-Nouri (1.61) - which I don’t think is accurate pricing.

There is clear value with this angle when backing with Bet365, the exact same selection is priced as low as 1.25 with other major bookmakers - indicating clear value for Silva to have just one shot in this clash at 1.80.