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Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Racing Previews & Betting Tips

Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Racing Previews & Betting Tips

Wednesday 15 March, 20231 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...
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Day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival takes place on Thursday 16th March
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Live on ITV/STV from 1:00PM

1:30PM Golden Miller Novices' Chase

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Scout's Pick

MIGHTY POTTER has been a revelation over fences, winning all three starts, including a brace of Grade 1 prizes, notably an eight-and-a-half-length romp at Leopardstown last time. The Gordon Elliott-trained six-year-old continues to improve with his jumping technique and has already established a professional attitude to fencing.   His main danger ought to be Banbridge, who ran on strongly to take second behind El Fabiolo over an inadequate trip last time out, with that form subsequently boosted here on Tuesday, with the latter’s superb win in the Grade 1 Arkle Novice’s Chase. The pair appear some way ahead of the remainder and are expected to fight out the finish. 
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Trader's Pick

The Festival Banker and The Irish Banker for many, MIGHTY POTTER absolutely oozes class, and his form is far superior of this field. His best form by far comes with an ease in the ground and a stiff 2 and a half miles will suit him perfectly. He was sensational when winning this year's Drinmore at Fairyhouse and beat National Hunt Chase winner Gaillard Du Mesnil in the process. Banbridge was 18 lengths behind him this day and it's hard to see him bridging the gap on soft ground here on Thursday. He backed up his Drinmore win with a hugely impressive run at Leopardstown over 2m5F and comes into this race in unstoppable form.   The one slight concern is his run in last year’s supreme, however, I’m willing to forgive it. On form it is his only blip and I’m willing to file it away as a once-off. One at a price that could run into the places in James Du Berlais. I think the key to him is soft ground and he will get that here. He was off for nearly 2 years after running in Punchestown on Yielding and I put down his poor performance at Leopardstown to the ground. I think he can outrun his price in these conditions and is a good Each Way bet at 16/1-20/1. 

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Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 1 👇🏼

2:10PM Pertemps Final

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Scout's Pick

As ever, this is a fiendishly difficult handicap hurdle to decipher. There are numerous contenders, with plenty holding strong chances, boasting upwardly mobile profiles. One such runner is likely favourite, Thanksforthehelp, who bolted up by a wide margin at Chepstow last month after wind surgery. There could be a bundle of improvement within reach, despite a rise on 11lb for that success. He must go close with a clear run.   Captain Morgs is a course-and-distance winner who scored by seven lengths in December. A rise of 7lb was justified and he is certainly one to look out for, as an unexposed performer over this distance. First-time cheekpieces clearly helped last time and if they have the desirable effect again, he cannot be overlooked. Stablemate Walking On Air is the selected ride by Nico De Boinville after a last-time-out success at Exeter. He is another who has a solid chance.  Good Time Jonny looks to have been delivered in fine form for this assignment by trainer Tony Martin. The pick of his winning hurdle efforts would see him be involved in the places at the business end, with the steep climb to the finish anticipated to suit.  From a price perspective, COLTOR appeals as too big in the market at huge double-figure odds. The flat-bred has finished in the top three on both runs for his new trainer, including an excellent keeping-on second in a valuable Musselburgh handicap hurdle. On a line through the third that day, The Bosses Oscar, who is considerably shorter in the betting for this contest, Coltor rates good value - he is now 8lb better off with that rival. He performed with credit on sole attempt at this venue, running fifth in a Cheltenham Festival juvenile handicap hurdle in 2021. 
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Trader's Pick

I was heartbroken when the news came out of Antepost favourite Shoot First suffering a setback ahead of this race during the week, so it was back to the drawing board, and the one I’ve landed is HECTOR JAVILEX at a big price of around 20/1. There’s plenty of extra place offerings for this race and the selection has good course form.   He absolutely bolted up at Cheltenham on New Years Day over 3miles on soft ground and he faces the same task here, albeit on a stiffer course, which I think will suit him better. He crept into 4th place last time out at Huntingdon and looked a bit outpaced turning in. Cheltenham will suit him a lot better as he is a strong stayer. There is scope to improve from his mark of 134 as he is unexposed. I think he is a cracking Each Way bet at 20/1. 

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

Our Trader and Scout have picked out the following bets for Race 2 👇🏼

2:50PM Festival Trophy Chase

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Scout's Pick

All eyes will be on SHISHKIN, the highest rated in this Grade 1 event. He is officially 6lb better than any of his rivals and has a clear class edge. The Nicky-Henderson trained runner is undoubtedly the star attraction on Thursday; a short-priced favourite in the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase. He deserves that favourite tag as a three-time Grade 1-winning chaser, who improved markedly for a rise in trip at Ascot last time. If he brings his A-game to the table, he'll be hard to peg back.   Blue Lord is the obvious danger for the Willie Mullins stable. Despite being turned over at prohibitive odds last time, his previous Grade 1-winning efforts read well and is completely unexposed over this trip.  
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Trader's Pick

There is no doubt Shishkin improved for the step up in trip last time after looking gone at the game the last twice. Even with the performance last time he is not the profile of horse that I would like to get stuck in to at a short price even though I do think he is the most likely winner. 3 places on offering and only 9 runners with an odd-on favourite makes a very good set up for punters to take a swing at one Each Way. JANIDIL is the one I’m going to play and at about 7/1-8/1 he is a decent Each Way price.   He was second in this race last year and before that he was placed in an Irish Gold Cup. He's had a quiet season this year with only the one run at Gowran 4 weeks ago where he beat a decent rival in Haut En Couleurs. That run leaves him in a good place for the Ryanair Chase and he is certain to handle the conditions and the track. If the favourite Shishkin underperforms there is no question Janidil has a great chance of winning and I think he will run into a place if the favourite performs. 

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 3 👇🏼

3:30PM Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle

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Scout's Pick

The Grade 1 Stayer’s Hurdle is a fascinating affair, with many chances. The Charles Byrnes-trained Blazing Khal is the obvious starting point, having scored in all four hurdle runs, including when defying a lengthy absence in the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan. He’s a huge player with any amount of improvement likely. Flooring Porter bids to complete a famous hat-trick in this event after a brace of exquisite front-running rides. He does have to improve on two modest efforts this campaign but will undoubtedly be primed for this mission.   On Tuesday we were treated to an emotional farewell victory by Honeysuckle, in the Mares’ Hurdle. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility of history repeating itself, with veteran PAISLEY PARK returning to the scene of his greatest triumph. The fans’ favourite landed this prize in 2019 and appeals at a big double-figure price, especially for the each-way positions. He'll be advantaged by a strong pace anticipated and could be finishing best of all up Cheltenham's famous climb to the line.
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Trader's Pick

HOME BY THE LEE has been a revelation this season, he has improved massively by winning Lismullen Hurdle at Navan in November and the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. He has already beaten the likes of Bob Olinger, Ashdale Bob, Flooring Porter and Sire Du Berlais, some of whom he reopposes here. He doesn’t have the sexiest profile or running style and I think that’s why the market has overlooked him a bit. He is now an 8-year-old and should be at his peak and he is certainly showing that on the track. He will get the trip and manage the course and he is one that is guaranteed to keep going when off the bridle and stay strongly.   There are plenty in here with questions to answer including the likes of Blazing Khal, Flooring Porter and others. Home By The Lee is in form and overlooked in my view and is a strong fancy in the feature of Day 3. 

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 4 👇🏼

4:10PM Plate Handicap Chase

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Scout's Pick

FRERO BANBOU has snuck into this race off a featherweight of 10 stone 6lb. Venetia Williams notched a festival winner at big odds in the 2013 renewal with Carrickboy. She could go close with this individual, who appears feasibly treated from a mark of 135, raised to this distance for the first time. The eight-year-old ran an incredible third in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase over two miles last season, finishing from a mile back on deep ground. He’s shown distinct promise in four starts this term, including a fair fourth at Sandown in his prep run last month.  Il Ridoto gained a much-deserved victory when successful at this track in January and appears to have more to give for trainer Paul Nicholls. With his confidence high, it would be folly to write off his claims. 
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Trader's Pick

A horse I’ve been following this season closely as I think there is a big race in him and this could be the one. WAR LORD is a horse that needs the ground soft or heavy and that is what he’s going to get here. He is one that will be held up off a strong pace and is a good stayer at the trip. He was 4th in last year’s Arkle and was sent off 15/8 on seasonal appearance for the Haldon Gold Cup and ran poorly on what was good ground.   He ran very well with a first time Tongue Tie last time out and that remains on. He is slipping down the weights slightly and although it is a competitive race I'm convinced he is a borderline graded horse and I think he can show plenty of class here. At 20/1 Each Way and I think he is one that can run a huge race.  HAUT EN COULEURS was going to win at Thurles and fell, no shame in being beaten to Janidil last time out and has plenty of weight to carry albeit down in grade but is a 6yo and can improve. Graded horse in handicap cliché comes to mind. Michael O Sullivan is a very positive booking and takes 3lbs off his back as he has top weight.

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

Our Scout and Trader picked out the following bets for Race 5 👇🏼

4:50PM Dawn Run Novices' Hurdle

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Scout's Pick

LUCCIA will be many punters' idea of a festival 'banker' in the Grade 2 Jack De Bromhead Mares' Novices' Hurdle at 4.50. A daughter of classy flat operator, The Gurkha, she has won both Listed Novice Hurdle starts in effortless fashion. Her latest triumph came in an Exeter event, which has an illustrious history - Native River, Politologue and Finian's Rainbow were all previous winners.   She has a high cruising speed and has yet to be out of second gear. The only blemish on her card thus far has been a couple of sketchy leaps. The new course at Cheltenham is likely to help on that front, with a long run down to the final flight, Luccia would have plenty of time to organise herself if making a mistake two from home. 
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Trader's Pick

There is no doubt that there is a high possibility that the favourite Luccia could be seriously high class. However, I think she is extremely short considering what she has done, and I’d be quite keen to take her on at 6/4 with her carrying a penalty. For me, she’s the lay of the day and one the bookies will be keen to take on.   This year’s renewal is named in memory of Henry De Bromheads son, jack and the Waterford based trainer has thrown plenty of darts at this to try and win it. I’m siding with the mount of Rachael Blackmore FOXY GIRL Each Way at 16/1. She was second in a listed mare's hurdle in Auteuil before being snapped up by powerful connections and was second in a Thurles Mares’ maiden hurdle and followed that up with a win at Limerick at Christmas. Limerick gets fierce testing so there's no concerns about the ground and she has already shown her class in France. I think she is a big price at 16/1 and one I'm willing to take a chance on.   Mares can improve loads from first to second run and from second to third etc., especially at a young age and theirs is many in here that look to have that profile. Luccia has been very impressive, but I wouldn’t be shocked if something improved massively to beat her here especially with her giving weight away. 

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 6 👇🏼

5:30PM Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir 

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Scout's Pick

It’s no surprise that STUMPTOWN has been all the rage in the ante post market for the Kim Muir Handicap Chase. Gavin Cromwell’s impressive jumper relished the three-mile journey when leaping with aplomb at Sandown last time – deservedly given a 10lb rise in the weights subsequently. His trainer is no stranger to festival success, having won four Cheltenham Festival races. Stumptown is unlikely to have reached the ceiling on his ability and can be relied on to be strong at the finish under top amateur jockey Barry O’Neill.  
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Trader's Pick

A big field head to post so I’m inclined to have 2 selections running for me both Each Way.  Gavin Cromwell is a very shrewd operator and STUMPTOWN is one that stands off the page here. He bolted up at Thurles off a mark of 112 beating Charlie Stout by 12 Lengths and followed up at Sandown off 125 winning by 7 lengths. He’s running here off a mark of 133 and leading amateur Barry O Neil is booked for the ride which is eye catching. Connections are certain there is more improvement to come from this 6-year-old and gets in with a lovely weight for this race.   WESTERN ZARA is a gutsy mare who stays very well and handles soft and heavy ground. She gets in here off a nice weight with a rating of 132 and a claimer taking a further 7lbs off her. Looking at her form there is no doubt that soft/heavy ground is key to her and I think she will get that here. Stiff finish over 3 miles 2 furlongs will be right up her ally and she’s one I cannot see out of the frame. She is a massive price at 33/1 – 40/1. 

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Our Scout and Trader picked out the following bets for the final Race 👇🏼

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