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Copenhagen v Man United
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Kick Off: Wednesday 8th November at 20:00
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Competition: Champions League
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Watch Live: TNT Sports 1
In a repeat of their clash at Old Trafford two weeks ago, Man United once again face FC Copenhagen. The Danes surprised some with their stubborn defensive showing in Manchester. In fact, Jacob Neestrup’s men were somewhat unlucky to fall to a 1-0 defeat, posting a higher xG than their illustrious hosts, and only being denied a famous draw by a penalty save from Andre Onana.
Thanks to Bayern Munich dispatching Galatasaray and not mathematically, but realistically, securing qualification, it is now a three-horse race for second. All three remaining sides in Group A are separated by just three points, with the Turkish side on four, United on three and Copenhagen on one.
The Danish champions will be right up for this one, with a win here likely to put them second in the group, assuming Bayern again beat Galatasaray. United will also be looking to reclaim the initiative, knowing that another three points would put them in the driving seat heading into their final Champions League fixtures.
It looks set to be a great game at the famous Parken Stadium in the Danish capital, and after their narrow loss last time out against United, the Copenhagen faithful will be with their side every step of the way. Copenhagen picked up a 1-0 win the last time the Red Devils visited, in 2006, and they will be desperate to do so again here.
This should also be an excellent game for a bet builder, so without further ado, let’s break down the stats and provide you with all the research you need to help you pick out a winner on Wednesday evening.
Copenhagen v Man United Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
You can find FC Copenhagen v Man United stats on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official lineups one hour before kick-off.
Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…
🚩 Copenhagen stats: Racking up the corners in Copenhagen
Copenhagen racked up nine corners at Old Trafford, and thanks to some showings with low corner totals in their opening games, the value on some of their corner lines may be a smart angle here.
In the Superliga, the Danish side have averaged 6.25 corners across their last 12 games and have hit the over 2.5 corner line in 11 of those 12 games. They have also hit the over 4.5 line in eight of these 12 fixtures and in all of their last four games in all competitions.
The higher line is one to be cautious with, especially as Copenhagen managed just one and two corners in their games against Galatasaray and Bayern, but for those seeking some higher odds options, this could be a nice value play.
United’s opponents have averaged 6.33 corners in the Champions League, and 6.55 in the Premier League. Copenhagen were able to exploit this to good effect in their first meeting and roared on by their own fans, we see little reason why they cannot match those heights again.
The bravest amongst you may even decide to nudge the line one higher, to 5.5, which sits at 3.30, but we recommend sticking to 4.5 here, as corners are one of the more unpredictable elements of any bet builder.
Prediction: Over 2.5 FC Copenhagen corners @ 1.20
Prediction: Over 4.5 FC Copenhagen corners @ 2.10
🟨 Man United stats: Red mist descends on the Red Devils
United’s discipline, or lack thereof, has been a consistent problem throughout this season, and has already cost them in the Champions League, when Casemiro’s sending-off against Galatasaray opened the door for the Turkish side to snatch a famous victory.
Across their three Champions League games, Erik ten Hag’s side have committed 9.66 fouls per game, and they are averaging 11.13 in all competitions.
They have hit the over 8.5 fouls line in 11 of their 16 games this season, but even more impressively, they have had nine or more fouls in nine of their last ten games in all competitions.
The foul numbers have unsurprisingly led to plenty of cards, averaging two per game in the Champions League, and hitting this line in both of their last two games in Europe, including against Copenhagen last time out.
They have also been getting worse of late, having more cards than their opposition in three of their last four games, which includes the reverse fixture. Backing United to have the most cards looks appealing, especially at odds of 2.50.
Copenhagen look capable of getting a result if things go their way, and if they have something to protect, time-wasting cards could come into play.
Prediction: Over 8.5 Man United fouls @ 1.30
Prediction: Over 1.5 Man United cards @ 1.44
Prediction: Man United to receive the most cards @ 2.50
🎯 Copenhagen offensive stats: Achouri to find his shooting boots?
Elias Achouri looked a real threat against United two weeks ago, racking up three shots at goal, although not managing one on target.
The left winger beat his man to the open the space for one and was played in by Mohamed Elyounoussi for his other two, their combination play being too much for Diogo Dalot at right back.
He will be up against Aaron Wan-Bissaka this time, but as shown against Fulham, ten Hag has clearly attempted to get the English full back to move out of his comfort zone to get more involved in play upfield, which allowed Willian acres of space to run into.
Should this pattern repeat itself here, Achouri could well repeat his shooting numbers from their last meeting, and he will know he is capable of greater accuracy. The Tunisian winger has had at least one shot on target in eight of his last nine domestic games, and if he is afforded as many opportunities here as last time, surely one will be on target.
Achouri to have 2+ shots (1.80), and 1+ shot on target (2.25) both look to be appealing selections; but those looking to really push the boat out may even have a look at him to repeat his three-shot haul from a fortnight ago, which is sitting at 3.60. We would recommend watering it down to just one or two shots, but the option is there if you want to really boost your odds.
Prediction: Elias Achouri to have 2+ shots @ 1.80
Prediction: Elias Achouri to have 1+ shot on target @ 2.25
🎯 Man United offensive stats: United to keep Grabara busy
Man United have scored six goals already in this Champions League campaign, albeit with only three points to show for it.
They have been racking up the shots and their accuracy has been impressive so far, converting nine shots against Bayern into four shots on target, and then 16 and 15 shots into five shots on target in their games against Galatasaray and Copenhagen.
United have averaged 4.55 shots on target in the Premier League, and have hit this line in three of their last four domestic matches, with their shot on target percentage sitting at 36% or more in all four of those games.
If they can have a similar number of shots to their last game against Copenhagen, and keep up that accuracy, this selection should land comfortably.
This should give Kamil Grabara plenty of opportunities to make three saves or more. Grabara has made at least three saves in all three Champions League group stage games so far. The Polish stopper, and ex-Liverpool youth player, has been a key part of their success in the competition so far, and we expect him to continue his fine form again here.
Prediction: Man United to have 5+ shots on target @ 1.50
🛑 Copenhagen defensive stats: Central midfield stoppers more than happy to stick a boot in
There is a standout candidate for fouls in this game, and his name is Viktor Claesson.
The Swedish midfielder has played a number of positions for Copenhagen this season, but one thing has remained the same. He will foul no matter where he has been positioned. In his nine starts for his club side, he has committed at least one foul in all of them.
Across these nine starts, the Swede has committed two or more fouls in six, including two against United in 75 minutes at Old Trafford. Remarkably, he has been carded only once, so steer clear of him there, but at 2.50 to commit two or more fouls, he looks to be a ridiculously solid value option. Anyone looking to construct a high odds bet builder will not find a better selection than this.
Another solid option is Lukas Lerager. This is a nice odds boosting option, with the 30-year-old Dane having committed a foul in seven of the last eight games in which he played the full 90 minutes and committed two or more in five of those eight.
This includes three fouls against Galatasaray and two against Bayern Munich in this competition. Lerager committed none in the reverse fixture, but he was shunted out wide, and should return to a central role for this one, which will allow more opportunities for fouls.
Prediction: Viktor Claesson to commit 1+ foul @ 1.33
Prediction: Viktor Claesson to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.50
Prediction: Lukas Lerager to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.25
🛑 Man United defensive stats: United’s forwards the place to look for fouls
As stated above, United have been incredibly foul-happy this season, so we should explore the fouls markets in more depth, there are plenty of solid options for individual fouls as well as the team fouls pick mentioned above.
The picks of the bunch both come from the forward line, the pair we like the look of most being Rasmus Hojlund and Bruno Fernandes.
Hojlund is only fifth-highest in terms of total fouls amongst likely starters, but the Danish striker has extra reason to get stuck in at the club where he started his career, and at which his brothers still play.
He has committed two fouls in both of his last two Champions League games, has committed at least one foul in all three of his last three starts for United, and across his last six starts has racked up two or more fouls in three of those games, including last time out against Copenhagen.
Bruno meanwhile has had his foul numbers depressed by time spent on the wing, but in games in which he has played more centrally, he is extremely prone to fouling, committing at least one in nine of the 12 games in which he was predominantly played through the middle.
He has committed one or more fouls in each of his last four United starts and is very generously priced considering this. Bruno Fernandes also looks a great addition to any bet builder here.
Prediction: Rasmus Hojlund to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.50
Prediction: Rasmus Hojlund to commit 2+ fouls @ 3.30
Prediction: Bruno Fernandes to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.44
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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