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Coventry City v Luton Town
This game needs hardly any building up and introduction. It is well known as the richest game of football in the world, with the victor estimated to earn at least £160m by playing a season of Premier League football.
It is the Holy Grail for clubs like Luton and Coventry, teams that haven’t been in the Premier League for some time. Luton last graced the top division in the year before the Premier League came into existence, and Coventry were relegated from the PL in 2001 and never really threatened to return until this season.
Indeed, it has been well reported that both teams have recently been League Two teams, Luton dropped into non-league for multiple seasons. It really is a play-off final for the romantics with a strong narrative whoever is successful. However, there is still value to be found in the betting markets. The Luton vs Coventry Bet Builder tips come to an enticing bet of just under 3/1.
You can back the Coventry City v Luton Town bet builder tips below if you fancy having a bet on this clash. We have backed it on Paddy Power, and you can do so too by signing up via the offer below. Not only will you get access to the bet builder, but you’ll also get your stake refunded in full even if it loses.
Can Morris and Adebayo fire Luton into the Premier League?
Luton are very well-established at playing two big centre-forwards. It is a key trait of the team, and it works because every part of the team functions to provide the solidity and then the type of chances that serve the forward players.
Luton averaged eight shots per match over their last 30 games, and Morris and Adebayo averaged half of those shots. The other shots come mainly from set pieces with direct free kicks often taken by Alfie Doughty and then defenders contribute from set pieces.
In terms of Luton Town tips, this has made both Morris and Adebayo prohibitively short in the shots markets, with Adebayo providing slightly more value. Mark Robins will be fully aware of the way that Luton play, but so have many opposition managers and they have still found it very hard to stop. Despite finishing a clear 3rd in the final table, Luton only finished 9th in the expected goals table.
This suggests that there was an overperformance in both boxes from the Hatters, something that can help them in one-off games like this. The gap narrows when considering just the part of the season since February 1st, Luton are 6th in the expected points table there, only just behind Coventry in that measure.
The lads have really risen in those big games and big occasions, it’s brought the best out of them “Luton boss Rob Edwards on the play-off final
Luton Town team news
Rob Edwards is likely to name the same XI that he used in the second leg of the semi-finals against Sunderland.
Ethan Horvath will look for successive play-off final triumphs after his work with Nottingham Forest last season. The three central defenders will be Gabriel Osho, Tom Lockyer, and Amari’i Bell.
The key men for Luton could be wing-backs Alfie Doughty and Cody Drameh if they can provide the firepower for centre-forwards Carlton Morris and Elijah Adebayo. The midfield will see loanee Marvellous Nakamba holding and Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu and Jordan Clark playing as number eights.
Robins to complete the EFL?
Mark Robins has finally been getting the recognition he deserves in the build-up to this final. To have led the team through the divisions is a rare and impressive achievement, and his quality cannot be underestimated for this match.
Coventry have been exceptionally well prepared in the run-in, and again in the semi-finals. The tactics worked against Middlesbrough over the two legs, though they perhaps rode their luck a little more than has been generally reported. Middlesbrough created four chances over 0.3xG, and over 2xG in total over the two legs, but didn’t manage to score.
The Sky Blues always carried a threat themselves though and what may encourage Robins to go with the same team as the second leg is the way that Viktor Gyokeres was able to occupy the entire Middlesbrough defence on his own, allowing Gus Hamer and Jamie Allen to attack the spaces left behind.
Over the course of the whole season, Coventry finished 5th in the league table, but also 5th in the expected points table. Taking the period from 1st February only, the Sky Blues were 4th in the expected points table, so they have been consistently putting in good performances ahead of this and they will feel confident in their roles and responsibilities here.
We’re all excited and we need to make sure everyone keeps their feet on the floor. It’s a special occasion and we’re all looking forward to it “Mark Robins on Coventry’s preparation for the clash
Coventry City team news
There is no new injury news for Coventry ahead of the final. Mark Robins will have the same group of players to choose from, but has probably one key decision to make. The goalkeeper and defence are pretty set. Ben Wilson will start behind Luke McNally, Kyle McFadzean and Callum Doyle. Jake Bidwell and Brooke Norton-Cuffy will be the wing-back, with Norton-Cuffy being a key attacking outlet and Bidwell more of a solid custodian on the left.
Ben Sheaf proved his fitness in the second leg and is an important player in central midfield, Liam Kelly will partner him in probably his last match for the Sky Blues. Gus Hamer will definitely play in support of Viktor Gyokeres. The decision then is whether to play Jamie Allen as a second #10 or use Matt Godden as another forward. I suspect that Allen will get the nod initially, this allows Hamer to have a bit more of a free role.
Coventry City v Luton Town Cheat Sheet
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Coventry City v Luton Town bet builder tips
Coventry City v Luton Town
The goal expectancy for this match could be a bit too high from the bookmakers. When analysing how this match could look on the pitch, it is very difficult to see how there will be an abundance of chances from open play. Both teams are going to play three-man central defences, and are likely to use three central midfielders, possibly four in Coventry’s case, leaving a wingback vs wingback battle for supremacy.
Typically, matches that are set up like this can be very tight, low xG affairs. Set pieces may be the most important aspect of each team’s attacking play. It is not that there isn’t goalscoring talent on the pitch, there is with Carlton Morris and Viktor Gyokeres being two of the top marksmen in the league all season, but it is the chance-creation aspect of the match that is hard to envisage.
Finally, and also importantly, the Championship Play-Off final is usually very low scoring, The last ten have seen a goal average of 1.1, with only one match (Aston Villa 2-1 Derby in 2019) going over 2.5 goals. That is also the only match in which both teams scored in the last ten.
The Luton forwards are physical specimens. Elijah Adebayo, in particular, likes to use his physicality in duels and by running the channels. Adebayo often plays on the right of the two-up top with Carlton Morris and so, if Coventry plays as expected, this will be around Callum Doyle’s area.
The Manchester City loanee is on a real run of matches in which he has committed at least one foul. His last five games have all seen at least one foul from him, and over a ten-game period his fouls total 13, a better than one-a-game ratio. This also makes Doyle the player who makes the second-most fouls for Coventry in that period, behind Gus Hamer.
Just to add the icing on the cake, Adebayo is Luton’s second-most fouled player this season, behind Amari’i Bell. The big frontman has been fouled at least once in his last four matches, with 1.26 fouls drawn per 90.
As mentioned in the Coventry team news section, it is by no means certain how Mark Robins will set his team up. However, Gus Hamer is going to play a key role in the Coventry attack regardless. With my opinion being that Hamer will provide the second biggest goal threat behind Gyokeres, he is a good enough price here for 2+ shots.
When we bear in mind that Hamer will undoubtedly be on free-kicks, and the fact that he will be given until the very end of the game to exert his considerable influence as well. The stats tell us that Hamer takes a lot of shots recently as his position has changed from a place in the double-pivot to a key support of Gyokeres. The Dutchman is taking responsibility for his team and dragging them forward.
Indeed, Hamer has been taking at least two shots a match, ten times in their last thirteen. He continued this into the playoffs as he let fly 5 shots across the two legs, including a goal in the second leg.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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