💎 Gem Bet: Moises Caicedo - Over 0.5 Shots @ 1.80 (Bet365)

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Moises Caicedo has been more involved for Chelsea in the final third this season, with the Blues increasingly coming up against stubborn low blocks which allow Caicedo to step into forward areas. Chelsea will be faced with this defensive structure here as Palace have built their identity around a strong mid block which they used effectively to hold Chelsea to a 0-0 draw when the sides met earlier in the season.

Chelsea had 19 shots in that game, with Caicedo managing to get one attempt away. Caicedo has already tripled his goal tally from last season in the Premier League to score three goals and has also pitched in with a couple in the Champions League - the latest of which came against Pafos during the week. Caicedo had four shots in that game with all four efforts finding the target, two of those attempts also came from outside of the box.

Caicedo has taken 14 shots across his 16 starts in the Premier League this season (0.88 per 90) with 10 of these efforts coming from outside of the box. This is notable because Chelsea won’t get many chances in Palace’s penalty box as the Eagles tend to shut down that space very well. 10 of Chelsea’s 21 shots came from outside of the box against Pafos during the week, as well as eight of their 19 shots in their last game against Palace. 

Caicedo only needs to take six more shots to equal his shot tally from last season in the Premier League (20 - 0.54 per game), adding to the bank of evidence to suggest that he’s more involved in the final third for Chelsea this season.

There is decent value with this selection when backing with Bet365, the exact same angle is priced as low as 1.4 with other major bookmakers.