It’s always a massive plus when you get to play a must-win game in front of your home crowd, and Signal Iduna Park has proved to be an absolute fortress in the Champions League over recent years.

Dortmund have lost only a single game in the Champions League in 17 home matches and are unbeaten here since 2021 in European competitions – they certainly thrive on home soil when it’s needed most. Their unbeaten home record remains intact even after being drawn in this season’s ‘Group of Death’ which is certainly a testament to their strength at home.

In recent weeks, Dortmund have won four of their last six at home, losing 1-0 to Stuttgart last time out despite registering 2.5xG, which spoiled a streak of five consecutive wins – including a dominant victory over Bayern Munich.

Diogo Simeone’s boys have struggled playing away from home this season, picking up only five wins from 15 league outings on the road this season and just one win from four in Europe.

This extends to only six victories from their last 14 matches across competitions, which includes a penalty shootout victory over Inter Milan in the RO16, so it seems Atletico certainly struggle away from the Spanish capital.
And for those that love superstitions, Dortmund have lost just two of their last 13 Champions League games against Spanish opponents and are unbeaten in five knockout games against such opponents (W3 D2).

A draw will be enough to send Atletico through to the semifinals so taking the draw no bet selection will ensure us from the inevitable low block of the Spanish side which they can execute so well on big occasions. This means that only an Atletico Madrid win would let down this selection and it will be voided if it ends in a draw. You could also take the double chance angle if you want the odds on your bet builder to remain unchanged by a draw result.

Both sides showed their strong attacking capabilities in the last leg, a game that was perhaps unlucky to only witness three goals with so many clear-cut chances being squandered at both ends.

This goal-scoring form has continued outside of their European endeavours, with Dortmund and Atletico witnessing both teams score in six of their last 10 games across all competitions. This includes three consecutive matches for the visitors.

Dortmund have scored in all but two of their nine Champions League matches this season, drawing a blank against PSG and AC Milan in their first two group stage matches, and average 1.57 goals scored per game in the competition across the remaining games.

Atletico have one-upped their German hosts, scoring in all but one of their European outings this season, blanking only in the first leg of their RO16 clash with Inter. They have scored an impressive 21 goals across this campaign, averaging 2.33 goals scored per 90.

Dortmund have kept only three clean sheets across their last eleven matches and the Spanish giants may be forced to find a goal to secure their semifinal spot if they find themselves trailing first.

After an impressive 16 set pieces were taken in the return leg evenly distributed amongst each side, Dortmund’s corner markets hold good value considering their need for a victory on Tuesday night.

Dortmund have picked up 4+ corners in all but one of their Champions League outings this season, totalling 47 corners taken across their nine games – 5.22 corners per 90.

This form has transitioned into their domestic outings too, with the German side registering 5+ corners in 10 of their last 16 in the Bundesliga – four of the exceptions saw 4 Dortmund corners taken.

Once again these figures are often exacerbated when Dortmund play at home as they have taken 26 corners across their last 3 home league games. It’s been nearly six months since Dortmund took less than five corners at home in the Bundesliga and considering their need to get a win in this second leg, it looks like a strong market to target.

With everything still left to play for in this tie, we should expect plenty of feisty tackles and a fascinating battle in the midfield between some key characters. One individual who looks well-priced on Tuesday to make only a single foul is the Atletico skipper, Koke.

Koke is a pivotal part of the Atletico midfield structure and is exemplary in Simeone’s defensive masterclass performances and he could certainly be forced into a late tackle or two on Tuesday.

Koke is averaging only 0.72 fouls per 90 in La Liga this season but is a seasoned master of the dark arts on the big stages. He picked up one foul in the return leg last week and clocked up a total of five fouls across Atletico’s two clashes with Inter in the last round.

The captain has picked up 2 fouls in three of his last five league games and has committed at least one foul in 8 of his last 11 across all competitions, we expect him to be heavily involved in this contest.

Sticking with fouls for the visitors, Atletico are certainly not ashamed of their prowess in playing low-block football and absorbing continuous pressure, and often with that playstyle comes fouls, a prominent part of their game over the last few weeks.

Atletico are averaging 11.70 fouls per 90 in La Liga this season, a strong representation of recent form. Simeone’s boys have committed 15+ fouls in five of their last six matches across all competitions. The only exception to this was the first leg last week where they picked up 10 fouls.

They also managed 37 fouls across the two legs against Inter, including 21 fouls over their 120 minutes of football in the second leg. Dortmund are drawing in an average of 11.6 fouls per 90 this season, including 13 fouls at the weekend.

Considering Atletico’s expertise in getting over the line when it matters most, no matter the consequences, their team’s total foul markets show strong value. Expect the visitors to get down and dirty to suck the tempo out of Dortmund’s game.

With the fouling selections in mind, the bookings markets for Atletico Madrid look a valuable selection.

Atletico have picked up at least 3 bookings in three of their four Champions League away games this season, racking up a total of 12 bookings across those outings.

They have picked up 23 bookings across their nine games in Europe and they haven’t been confined to getting bookings away from home, evident from their 3 bookings in the last leg.

Outside of their Champions League antics, Atletico have picked up 3+ bookings in four consecutive games in La Liga, including five in their defeat to Cadiz, and they’ll certainly stop at nothing to get past Dortmund in this leg.