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⚽ Who will win the Golden Boot? – Euro 2024 Top Goalscorer Tips

⚽ Who will win the Golden Boot? – Euro 2024 Top Goalscorer Tips

Thursday 27 June, 20244 min read
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Grant Heaney

Grant is a Glasgow-based sports betting analyst and keeps a close eye on all the goings-on in the fascinating world of Scottish football. While he has a strong passion for the SPFL, Grant is equally adept at crafting content on all of Europe’s major leagues, whether it be the Premier League or further afield. When not crunching the numbers and analysing the stats, Grant can often be found following his beloved Falkirk up and down the country.

In this article...

Introduction

The Golden Boot market is always a popular one for bettors at international tournaments and with the path to final (kinda) mapped out for each nation hoping to seal European glory, there's always great value in the top goalscorer markets entering this stage of the tournament.

The Golden Boot market remains composed of very familiar names, and with good reason. However, most of the heavyweight nations haven't hit the ground running quite yet meaning this market remains a wide-open race. The current top goalscorer sits on three total goals, followed by five players on two goals, including many underdog candidates and many more awaiting in the wings.

Browse our Euro 2024 predictions hub where you'll find more insights around pre-competition betting. Such as our Euro 2024 dark horse predictions and set piece takers for Euro 2024 and much more.

We've also curated a selection of Euro 2024 free bets from the bookmakers we think are offering the best value.

Our experts have prepared their favourite selections in the Golden Boot race for Euro 2024 now that the group stages have finished and we've seen what each nation possess in their attacking artillery, including two new selections from our pre-tournament tips, which are also featured in this article.

Let's have a look at our selections for the Euro 2024 Golden Boot winner as the competition enters the knockout stages ...

Euro 2024 Top Goalscorer Tips (Knockout Stages Update)

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Harry Kane

📈 Pre-Tournament Tipped Odds: 6.0

Despite England’s underwhelming group stage showing, Harry Kane remains the bookmakers’ second favourite to claim the Golden Boot award. The England captain has scored one of his countries two goals at Euro 2024 to date, delivering the opening strike during the Three Lions’ 1-1 draw with Denmark. Cast your mind back to this stage at Euro 2020 and England had reached the knockout round in similarly unconvincing fashion, with Kane still to open his account. The England sharpshooter then went on to rack up four goals across his subsequent three appearances, and there could be scope for a repeat this time around given how the draw has panned out for Gareth Southgate’s side. There is surely better to come from both England and their record goalscorer, and a round of 16 clash with Slovakia represents a good opportunity for Kane to add to his Euro 2024 tally. Thereafter, England, in spite of their shortcomings, would be expected to see off either Switzerland or Italy before taking on inferior opposition at the semi-final stage. A further three or four goals from Kane isn't beyond the realms of possibility, and achieving that total may be enough to take home the Golden Boot.
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🇪🇸 Alvaro Morata

In his newfound role as captain of the national team, Alvaro Morata has gone from a maligned figure to the first name on the team sheet for Spain. After being handed the armband ahead of Spain’s Euro 2024 qualifying campaign, Morata paid dividends with a hat-trick against Georgia before scoring a crucial goal against Scotland to secure qualification. While Morata has endured scoring droughts and confidence issues during his career at club level, he has proven very reliable for his country when it comes to scoring goals. Morata’s international record of 36 goals in 76 appearances speaks for itself. He warmed-up for the tournament by netting in Spain’s 5-1 win over Northern Ireland and has since gone on to score against Croatia, so Morata is very much a man in form. That matchday one strike against the Croatians also means Morata now sits joint-third in the all-time European Championship top scorers standings. Spain’s path to the quarter-finals looks relatively straightforward so there should be ample opportunity for Morata to to maintain his goal-scoring momentum, and there is no reason to suggest the goals would dry up thereafter. Thus, the Spanish skipper merits strong consideration as an each-way selection.
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🇦🇹 Marcel Sabitzer

Austria’s excellent showing in Group D confirmed their status as dark horses of Euro 2024. On top of this, Ralf Rangnick’s side have presented themselves with a plausible path to the latter stages of the competition, making midfielder Marcel Sabitzer a lively outsider to bag the Golden Boot award. After firing a blank against France in their Group D opener, Austria have since racked up six strikes across their subsequent two fixtures, with the aforementioned Sabitzer grabbing one of those. Under the guidance of wily tactician Ralf Rangnick, Sabitzer continues to thrive in a more advanced midfield role for Das Team - the Austrian maestro has notched in four of his last eight outings on the international stage. What’s more, six of Sabitzer’s overall tally of 17 international goals have arrived across his last 13 appearances for his country, highlighting just how potent a weapon he is for Austria. Given that Austria now have a realistic chance of playing at least three more matches at Euro 2024, Sabitzer could have the opportunity to outperform his lofty top goalscorer odds.
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Pre-tournament Top Goalscorer Tips

🇫🇷 Kylian Mbappe

📈 Pre-Tournament Tipped Odds: 5.50

The Frenchman is deserving of top billing in this market. He befits all of the key criteria required for a Golden Boot winner, and he has won a Golden Boot already, so has course form. Mbappe has had another strong season with PSG, indeed, this is actually Mbappe’s second-best season in terms of goals scored per 90 minutes in Ligue 1. He is scoring at 1.13 goals per 90 in the French domestic league and he has equalled his highest Champions League goal tally. He could yet lead PSG to their maiden Champions League crown before departing for Real Madrid in the summer. His data for France makes for compelling evidence as well. He has scored 1.23 goals per 90 in the 2024 qualifiers, and he bagged at 1.2 goals per 90 in the 2022 World Cup. These are numbers unmatched by anyone else in the field, and while his numbers dropped in the 22/23 season to 0.53 goals per 90, that is still a healthy data point. Ultimately, he is playing for one of the big favourites for the overall crown, and if France play seven matches it is very difficult to imagine Mbappe not getting at least five goals in that run.
Load bet on Betfair @ 7.0
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🇵🇹 Cristiano Ronaldo

📈 Pre-Tournament Tipped Odds: 11.0

It is surprising to be previewing Cristiano Ronaldo as a realistic Golden Boot contender in 2024, but he is a player who should be taken seriously for this crown. Ronaldo is a player who needs no invitation to look for extra motivation, but to be able to win a Golden Boot at the age of 38, while playing in a non-elite (for the moment) league would be an achievement that major international tournaments have never seen before. When Portugal exited the 2022 World Cup it was assumed by many that it would be the farewell of Ronaldo from the major international scene, but Roberto Martinez has kept Ronaldo in the fold and the decision has definitely paid off. Ronaldo scored 1.25 goals per 90 in qualifying, which was straightforward for the Portuguese. However, most importantly for Ronaldo, he played 721 minutes in the qualifying campaign, the third-highest number in the squad. He has held off the threat of Goncalo Ramos for the immediate future and will start as Portugal’s #9. Portugal are a squad full of goals at the moment. Surrounding Ronaldo with players at the peak of their powers such as Bruno Fernandes, Rafael Leao, Bernardo Silva, and Joao Felix, means that they can be a real threat for the title, and a real threat for banging in some goals in the group as well, which was the route that Ronaldo took for his 2020 Golden Boot. He could do it again.
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🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Jude Bellingham

📈 Pre-Tournament Tipped Odds: 21.0

The 20-year-old has had an incredible season at Real Madrid, practically leading the biggest club in the world to a La Liga title, and potentially a double with the Champions League. Bellingham scored 19 domestic goals, and was Real’s top scorer, at a rate of 0.78 per 90 minutes. Ultimately though, he isn’t as prolific as the other players in the betting, and certainly not for England. He has only three goals in England colours at this stage, at 0.14 per 90. His position has generally been much deeper than for Los Blancos, but even having been pushed forward by Gareth Southgate, he still has to compete with Kane, Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka for goals.
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🇧🇪 Romelu Lukaku

📈 Pre-Tournament Tipped Odds: 13.0

Lukaku led the goalscoring charts in Euro qualifying, but perhaps there is some waning in the belief that the talented Belgian side of the last decade or so will ever win an international tournament. There is, potentially, also a belief that Lukaku has had a poor season at Roma, which may impact his price. The former Man Utd forward has performed above his xG rate in every season of his career so far. His goalscoring rate in Euro qualifying was a ridiculous 2.13 per 90. He has been to five major tournaments now with Belgium and scored 11 times, at a rate of 0.64 per 90. He will have to better this rate if he is to win the Golden Boot, and Belgium will need a deep run, but he is priced accordingly.
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✅ Best Bet for the Golden Boot

Harry Kane is second-favourite in the market for the Golden Boot and presents solid value at his price considering England's favourable knockout road to the final.

Alvaro Morata is also a great value proposition considering Spain's raw strength and fluid football in the groups stages and they certainly look like one of the best sides in the competition so far. However, their (potential) meeting with Germany in the quarter-finals may prove a hefty burden in his journey to top goalscorer.

Marcel Sabitzer is also a tempting bet at massive odds. Austria's strength in the groups suggests it will take quite the force to stop them from achieving European glory, especially on their side of the bracket.

📊 The Data

When gathering data for the question of who might win the Golden Boot at Euro 2024, some people may look into all European Championships for the trends. In this case, we thought it best to instead look into seven-match tournaments i.e. ones in which there are three group games and four knockout rounds to achieve victory.

The expansion to 24 nations in the European Championships finals began in 2016, so we include two Euros tournaments, but the 32-nation World Cup finals have the same structure when it comes to the number of matches played. 

Although the quality and standard of the tournaments may differ, there are enough similarities to make the trends more relevant.

The main thing to observe in this data is that while the top goalscorer doesn’t necessarily have to play for a nation that has a deep run into the tournament.

48% of the winners or full-placed goalscorers played for a nation that made the final of the tournament. 74% made the semi-finals, which in World Cups entitles the nation to at least seven matches, but there is no 3rd/4th place play-off in the European Championships at this stage.

92% of the top scorers played for a nation that at least reached the quarter-finals. This should be the realistic limit for looking for players who could be the top scorer in the tournament. The exceptions that break this rule in these tournaments are Oleg Salenko from World Cup USA 94, where he scored five goals in a group match, and Cristiano Ronaldo in the last Euros when all six of his goals came in the group stage.

In terms of the number of goals required for a player to at least place, we should be looking at five goals. Five has been enough for a full-place return, at least, in all ten tournaments in which this format has been followed. The winner has gone beyond five goals in seven of the ten tournaments though.

However, obsessing over the number of goals expected in the group stage may be a misnomer. Only 56% of the number of goals scored by the scorers in the table were scored at the group stage. Then again, all of the top scorers did score at least once in the opening three matches of the tournament.

📋 The Method

As well as the qualitative data, the other thing to take from this list is the profile of the players that become top scorers.

The vast majority of the players are either the main centre forward for their team i.e. Miroslav Klose, Gabriel Batistuta, Olivier Giroud, or Harry Kane, or they are the bonafide star of their team i.e. Hristo Stoichkov or Lionel Messi.

The winner of the 2024 Golden Boot is likely to be the main centre forward for a nation that reaches the latter stages of the tournament. No surprises here, but the data backs up the this strong trend.

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