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It happens at every European Championship. There is always one unexpected force that threatens to go all the way.
Who could forget grinding Greece’s run to take out Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal in Euro 2024 as they went all the way to the title or Denmark’s dynamite in 1992 to pick up the trophy after they had not even managed to qualify for the tournament on merit?
The Danes were at it four years ago, too. Only a controversial penalty saw them dumped out by England after extra time in the semi-final at Wembley. This was achieved despite suffering a major health scare for captain Christian Eriksen in their first match of the competition.
Which teams outside the big favourites could potentially enjoy a similar run this time around?
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🇩🇰 Denmark to reach the Quarter-Finals
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Odds: 2.80
When Euro 2020 rolled around, Denmark went into the competition after an impressive undefeated run, so it was not such a surprise that they went deep in the competition.
Qualification this time around was complicated by an early loss in Kazakhstan but was ultimately achieved in a comfortable but unspectacular fashion. Narrow victories were the order of the day – even against San Marino away – but this is a strong-functioning team that deserves to be respected.
They are unlikely to be easily brushed off by England in the group stages, while they will fancy their chances of accruing enough points against Slovenia and Serbia to progress to the knockout stages.
Rasmus Hojlund’s form for Manchester United may have come under some scrutiny following his return from injury, but he spearheads his nation’s attack capably and struck seven goals in qualifying. He has also shown in the Premier League that if he gets on a roll, he can be a tough man to stop.
Supporting him are Jonas Wind, who is capable of both scoring and creating, and Christian Eriksen, who similarly remains a talisman for his nation.
There is a stream of quality throughout the squad. Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg is all-action in the middle of the park, Joakim Maehle is capable of attacking effectively from deep and the central defensive trio of Simon Kjaer, Andreas Christensen and Joachim Andersen are all strong and experienced..
Denmark went close in 2021, and they are capable of reaching the latter stages again. We’re looking at them to make the quarters at 2.80, but if you’re feeling more adventurous they’re 9/1 to make the semis again and 50/1 to win the competition.
🇦🇹 Austria to reach the Quarter-Finals
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Odds: 3.50
Ralf Rangnick’s Austria are a team to watch at Euro 2024, having suffered only one defeat since finishing bottom of their League A Nations League group in September 2022.
They have taken out some impressive teams since then, including defending European champions Italy. A very capable Sweden team was twice beaten in qualifying, while their sole defeat in their last 14 was a narrow defeat to Belgium at home.
Already in 2024, they have flexed their muscles impressively in friendly matches to beat Slovakia and a Turkey side that are being rated highly ahead of this tournament. Both wins were achieved comfortably, but the 6-1 destruction of the Turks was a particularly eye-catching performance by Rangnick’s side, who are only gaining in power.
Austria, meanwhile, will be boosted by the news that their coach, who has been at the helm since June 2022, elected to reject the Bayern Munich job to stay where he is. That should act as a positive shot in the arm to his players and indicates his confidence that this is a group that is going places.
Again, the lack of an obvious goalscorer could be an issue. Michael Gregoritsch did bag a hat-trick against Turkey but only struck three times in six qualifying appearances against weaker opposition than he’s set to face in the event, with midfielder Marcel Sabitzer on target on four occasions. It may be that the Borussia Dortmund star, who has been in good touch in front of goal with his club, has to reprise that role with Austria.
David Alaba’s absence due to serious injury will, naturally, be of concern but in the form of Lens defender Kevin Danso, they have a centre back who is being courted by many of Europe’s top clubs to call upon in his place.
In a tough group with the Netherlands, France and Poland, look for Austria to cause an upset or two in Germany.
🇭🇷 Croatia to win Euro 2024
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Odds: 41.0
It’s remarkable that Croatia are priced as long as 41.0 to go all the way at the European Championship, despite their remarkable ability to perform at World Cups.
There are reasons for their lengthy price. They have been drawn in a group with Spain and defending champions Italy, but with Albania also in their pool, they stand a strong chance of progressing at least as one of the best third-placed teams.
Croatia’s form remains good, though. It was only a year ago that they were edged by La Roja to miss out on winning the Nations League by the finest of margins. Given they went to extra time in both of those fixtures, it showed that this ageing squad still has staying power and the ability to play gruelling matches in succession.
This would certainly be a concern given that their chief general, Luka Modric, is now 38. He has been sparingly used at Real Madrid this season, though, so should benefit from being comparatively fresh.
If there’s an Achilles heel in this team, it will be their relative lack of offensive power. They have lost cutting edge in the final third with Ivan Perisic’s long term injury and are without a player of similar quality.
Meanwhile, it will be Andrej Kramaric upon whom so much depends. After scoring 15 goals in the Bundesliga with Hoffenheim, he is a capable finisher but the question is: will he get enough chances?
On tournament knowhow alone, they are capable of a deep run at Euro 2024. They’re 8.50 to reach the semi-finals if you fancy them to replicate their last four appearance at the 2022 World Cup. That said, they’re our dark horse pick for the Euros. Feel free to take them E/W for a greater chance of a payout.
* All odds displayed correctly at the time of publishing *
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