Silkeborg v HJK (Europa League)

HJK come into the second leg of this play-off tie in a very good position – in strong form domestically and on the continent, they just need to avoid defeat to progress to the Europa League group stage with the associated riches and glamour opposition. The club have already been open around the financial merits of both of their European routes, confirming that no home tie will move to the larger capacity Olympiastadion, no matter who they draw.

The first leg against Silkeborg was a tense affair, not many clear chances and the decisive goal was a wonderful strike from distance by David Browne, continuing his stellar form from right wing back. Lucas Lingman was instrumental, pulling the strings and providing the assist although not many would have expected the finish that came from his pass.

HJK were very comfortable in winning 0-3 away to Haka on Sunday, a stronger test was anticipated but they found great reward from the right side. Returning defender Aapo Halme, whose time in the English Championship was bitty, scored on his second debut and looked solid before his withdrawal. Paulus Arajuuri is still suffering from the injury suffered against Plzen and is unlikely to feature here.

Silkeborg went top of the Danish League with a 0-2 win away to Nordsjaelland, an early brace from Tonni Adamsen who didn’t get off the bench in Helsinki, he’ll be pushing for a start on Thursday evening.

With so much at stake for both teams, a repeat of the cagey first meeting is likely and it may take a mistake or moment of inspiration to change the outcome.

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Fenerbahçe v Austria Vienna (Europa League)

Austria Vienna may finally be hitting their stride in the Austrian Bundesliga but their hopes of qualifying for the Europa League group stages are hanging by a thread after their 2-0 home defeat at the hands of Istanbul giants Fenerbahçe. But football took a back seat on an evening overshadowed by violence, with the Fenerbahçe goalkeeper hit by a missile, scraps breaking out in and around the stadium, and 253 arrests made by the Austrian police.

While the first leg was a tough task for the Violets, the return fixture at the Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium is likely to be much more challenging. Known for its hostile atmosphere, the venue on Istanbul’s Asian side is home to the current Turkish Süper Lig leaders. Fenerbahçe, who have not won the league since 2013/14, lead the way with seven points from three games and are the only club in the division with a double figure in the goals scored column.

To make matters worse, the Violets will be without defender Lucas Galvão following his red card in Vienna last Thursday. We think all these factors combined make Fenerbahçe the strong favourites to run out comfortable victors, and are backing them to win and score over 1.5 goals in the process. But even if that does come to pass, Austria Vienna can be assured of Conference League football at the very least this season.

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FC Basel v CSKA Sofia (Conference League)

FC Basel’s road to a second consecutive season in the Group Stage of the UEFA Europa Conference League is almost complete. They are ninety minutes away from confirming their place in the competition but will have to overcome one final hurdle against Bulgarian side CSKA Sofia at St. Jakob-Park.

The opposition is a name that still is likely to send shivers down the spine of FCB fans after they eliminated Basel from the Europa League in October 2020. Thankfully, Basel are a much different side from back then, but they have to deliver a strong performance to turn the tie around at the Joggeli after suffering a narrow defeat in Sofia last Thursday. This isn’t unfamiliar territory for Alex Frei’s team, they lost out away to Brondby in the last round before winning on the night in Basel in the second leg and eventually advancing on penalties.

Despite that setback in the first leg, an even game of few chances that was ultimately decided by an own goal, FCB will be confident of securing the result they need to advance, especially with another strong crowd on home soil. They head into this game off the back of a 5-0 win over Allschwil in the cup that brought a hat-trick from Darian Males and a debut goal for youth prodigy Bradley Fink who was signed from Dortmund last week.

FCB were unfortunate to lose out in the Bulgarian capital, and they are more than capable of turning this tie around against a side that just isn’t on the level of the Brondby side that was beaten just two weeks ago. I expect Basel to have too much quality, securing the win and a place in the UECL in the process.

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Viborg v West Ham (Conference League)

West Ham United expectedly won the first game last week, but only 3-1. The Danish minors are still alive, and backed by a packed stadium and a city in a state of euphoria, they will do whatever they can to chase the miracle.

The fact that Viborg came away from London with a two-goal defeat was more than satisfactory for the Danish side. However, the sheer number European games are also taking their toll on their relatively small squad. Viborg lost to Randers in their previous Superliga game, and they have now lost two of their last three Superliga matches. However, the Greens are overall still over-performing, and confidence levels should remain high. The Danes will receive historic support from the stands, and this will push them forward.

Luckily for the Danes, West Ham aren’t in the best shape either. The victory in the first match remains their only one this season. In the weekend, they lost 2-0 at home to Brighton & Hove Albion, and they are now dead last in the Premier League with zero points for the first three matches. David Moyes and his troops are under pressure, and a failure against Viborg could easily be the nail in the coffin.

Even though West Ham are struggling domestically, they should still be comfortably the better side in this match-up. There was a significant level difference in the first match, and with West Ham only up with two goals, the Hammers cannot allow themselves to relax. West Ham need to get some confidence and close this match early, so we are going with an away victory at odds 1.73 at Betfair Sportsbook.

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Wolfsberger v Molde (Conference League)

The first leg resulted in a surprise Wolfsberger win 1-0. Most people expected Molde to fully dominate and take a lead with them to Austria, but it was one of those games where nothing went their way. They fired in over 30 shots, of which 18 were on target but could not hit the back of the net. The xG numbers for that match 1.86 vs 0.89 were not as dominant as I expected but it still shows Molde really shouldn’t have lost that fixture. They need to take their chances much better here and must win inside 90 mins to take the tie to at least extra time. There is an injury doubt to key Molde playmaker Magnus Wolff Eikrem who missed the Eliteserien match at the weekend vs Haugesund. They won that match 1-0 and it was probably a good sign they weren’t at their best because I suspect most of their attention was on the second leg here in Austria. Wolfsberger warmed up for this game by losing 1-2 at home to Austria Vienna. They sit bottom of the Austrian Bundesliga table on just 2 points and are the only team yet to win a match this season. Their European exploits have probably been a distraction.

In the previous round of Europa League qualifying Wolfsberger could only draw 0-0 at home to Maltese club Gzira United. That was an embarrassing result although they went on to progress 4-0 on aggregate. This is an entirely different type of fixture because once again they are underdogs, a scenario they probably enjoy more. Wolfsberger will likely sit back, try to defend and then Molde on the counter-attack. They did that well in Norway and managed to grab a goal on the break. They surely can’t afford to sustain as much pressure or concede as many shots on target though because Molde will likely find a way through their defences this time. 

It would be very disappointing for either club not to qualify for the group stage now. Molde because they were seen as the clear favourite to progress before this round and Wolfsberger because they hold a 1-0 advantage. We saw in the first leg the reason Molde were such heavy favourites though. They are definitely the better team but just couldn’t convert their chances. I think the Norwegian outfit can show their quality and class by ultimately progressing. For them to do that then they must at least win inside 90 mins to take the tie to extra time. I think they can do it and they are a decent 2.0 price to prevail. Molde are unlikely to misfire again and I’m backing them get the job done in Austria.

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Anderlecht v Young Boys (Conference League)

Young Boys were left frustrated by their 1-0 home defeat to Belgian side Anderlecht in the first leg of their UEFA Europa Conference League play-off in Bern. It was a good contest between two evenly-matched teams but it is Anderlecht that takes the advantage in the tie back to Brussels.

While some may suggest YB had to avoid defeat at home to have any chance of turning this one around, they showed enough in the first leg to hint that they aren’t quite out of contention just yet. Raphael Wicky’s side created plenty of chances but, uncharacteristically, lacked the clinical finishing that their visitors were able to produce.

YB were able to rest many of their starters in their 10-1 victory away to FC Shoenberg in the Swiss Cup at the weekend. Jean Pierre-Nsame did start, netting a hat-trick to continue his fine start to the season. He wasn’t a starter in the first leg but his goalscoring ability was sorely missed and could be unleashed in Belgium.

When this tie was drawn, it represented a very tough assignment for YB. With the first leg complete, it became even tougher given the defeat. While they may find it difficult to advance, they have enough to score against Anderlecht, something they should’ve done last week and can put right in the second leg.

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Antwerp v Istanbul Basaksehir (Conference League)

These two teams are both still unbeaten this season but that will change for one side or the other next Thursday.

In a heated Istanbul, Antwerp went in search of a good starting position in the last preliminary round of the Conference League. Mark van Bommel opted for some extra defensive stability with Dinis Almeida, and Jurgen Ekkelenkamp also made his starting debut. In the end, Antwerp got what it came for, a loss was avoided in the final minutes by Almeida’s header. Despite the slow tempo of the game, Antwerp seemed to be the better footballing team, showing itself to be the most dangerous at the few changes of tempo in the game. In both an attractive and a tactical return game, the Belgian team will have the best chance.

Basaksehir will have to win on the road to qualify for the Conference League. They can count on a recovered Nacer Chadli, who made his reappearance in the league last weekend and scored immediately (2-0 against Kayserispor). Both Istanbul and Antwerp are top of their home league. Antwerp had no game this weekend, so will be well rested. We expect a tactical game, as in the first game, but the game may explode after the first goal.

Offensively, Antwerp seems to have the best weapons with strikers Frey and Janssen who can play together if necessary when a goal is urgently needed. The extra weekend of rest could also be the deciding factor in the margin, as it has already been a busy start to the season for both teams. I expect the Belgian outfit to get the job done and qualify for the Conference League on Thursday evening.

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Hearts v FC Zurich (Europa League)

Hearts face an uphill struggle if they are to become the first Scottish club aside from Rangers and Celtic to qualify for the Europa League group stages. Although they gave a good account of themselves in Switzerland, they ultimately suffered a 2-1 loss due to a lapse in the first half, during which they twice conceded. In the second half, meanwhile, their opponents were clearly the stronger side in terms of their fitness levels.

The return leg in Edinburgh promises to be a high-octane affair played out in front of a boisterous crowd. Hearts have won both their Tynecastle fixtures this season, but they came against weak opponents in the form of Ross County and Dundee United. This is a step up, even if Zurich are struggling domestically at present.

Both clubs made wholesale changes to their teams at the weekend. Hearts showed good depth as they were competitive against Celtic in Glasgow, while Zurich snatched a draw against Winterthur but remain bottom domestically after only managing their first goal of the season at the weekend.

Nevertheless, when they got going in the first leg, they showed they are a better and more physical team than their Scottish opponents, whose squad is limited in its European experience and will be relying on the energy from the crowd to get them through this match. The quality of Zurich, though, is likely to be a telling factor, in what promises to be an intriguing tie.

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Gil Vicente v AZ Alkmaar

“And now…the end is near, and so I face the final curtain.”

The opening words from Frank Sinatra’s 1969 ballad “My Way” could also be interpreted as the prevailing mood in Barcelos right now. Three years after plying their trade in Portugal’s third division, Gil Vicente finished fifth to secure European football for the first time in the club’s 98-year history, an incredible feat that was all too predictably followed by a summer exodus. Diminutive midfield maestro Pedrinho packed his bags for newly promoted Turkish side MKE Ankaragücü, effervescent Brazilian winger Samuel Lino joined Atlético Madrid before heading to Valencia on loan, whilst star right back Zé Carlos returned to parent club Braga before being sent on loan to second-tier side Ibiza. The result? After opening the season with a 1-0 home win against Paços de Ferreira, Ali Alipour capitalizing on an error from goalkeeper Jordi and scoring a late winner, Gil conceded within a minute to Spanish striker Rafa Mújica whose goal saw Arouca prevail at home with a 1-0 win. Gil closed out the Primeira Liga’s third matchday with a 0-0 draw at home against Famalicão on Monday – a Fama side that lost their past two games with a combined scoreline of 0-5.

Four Portuguese teams have participated in the UEFA Europa Conference League – Paços de Ferreira and Santa Clara in 2021/22, and Gil Vicente and Vitória de Guimarães this year. Of those four, three of them entered the tournament with a new manager. Jorge Simão’s Paços defeated Larne before losing to Tottenham Hotspur in the play-off round – Simão later being sacked midway through the season – whilst Pepa, who left Paços for Vitória in 2021 after leading them to a fifth-place finish, would part ways with Vitória just nine days before the 2022/23 season began, being replaced by Moreno, who led them past Puskás Akadémia before falling to Hadjuk Split in the third qualifying round. Ricardo Soares left Gil Vicente for Egyptian giants Al Ahly, with Ivo Vieira taking the reins. The only exception is Santa Clara’s Daniel Ramos – despite leading the club to a first-ever European qualification and signing a one-year extension shortly after, Ramos would rescind his contract on October 5, nearly a month after the Azorean side fell to Partizan Belgrade in the play-off round.

No Portuguese side has managed to advance to the Europa Conference League group stage, and it doesn’t seem as though Gil Vicente will be the one to break the trend. After taking a 1-1 draw in Latvia, Gil thrashed Riga 4-0 in Barcelos thanks to an early own goal from Ngonda Muzinga, a goal from summer recruit Kevin Villodres, and a late brace from Spanish striker Fran Navarro. Having joined from Valencia in 2021, Navarro led the squad with 16 goals – only Ricardo Horta, Mehdi Taremi and Darwin Núñez had more in Portugal – before scoring six goals in preseason. However, after a muscular injury saw Navarro drop to the bench for the first leg of their Europa Conference League play-off against AZ Alkmaar, with AZ prevailing 4-0 in the Netherlands – Dani de Wit opening the scoring within 24 minutes and the Cheeseheads grabbing three goals in the final 20 minutes.

AZ are clicking on all cylinders under Pascal Jensen, beating Tuzla City 5-0 and Dundee United 7-1 on aggregate, as well as beating Go Ahead Eagles 2-0 and Sparta Rotterdam 3-2 in the league. And whilst Gil will enter the second leg on two days’ rest after Monday’s draw to Famalicão, AZ did not play in the weekend and will enter the game with a week’s rest; don’t be surprised if Ivo Vieira waves the white flag from the start and goes with a heavily rotated line-up in light of the 4-0 defeat and their upcoming trip to Vizela on Monday. Gil Vicente’s magic carriage has turned into a pumpkin, and I’m expecting AZ to give them their third loss of the season.

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Rapid Vienna v FC Vaduz

A club from microstate Liechtenstein has never previously made it into the group stages of a European competition and Rapid Vienna will be hoping it stays that way this season. But Vaduz, whose population could fit into Rapid’s stadium almost five times over, pulled off a shock by drawing 1-1 with the Green & Whites on home turf last week – a result described as a disgrace and a humiliation by the Austrian media.

Such is their focus on making amends for the return leg that Rapid took advantage of a regulation allowing Austrian clubs participating in the final qualifying rounds of a European competition to postpone their league match between the two legs. That means that Ferdinand Feldhofer’s troops will be well-rested for Thursday. Their injury list, which was in the double digits at the start of the campaign, is also now down to just three names, with midfielders Lion Schuster, Dejan Petrovic and Dragoljub Savic the only absentees.

The minnows from neighboring Liechtenstein’s capital, who play in the Swiss second division, will certainly be no pushover. But with a raucous home crowd backing them in Hütteldorf – where they have lost only one competitive game since February – and an almost fully fit squad finally at their disposal, we believe Rapid Vienna are the strong favourites to win this match and reach the UEFA Conference League groups.

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