KuPS v Haka

In 2021 this would have been one of the most straightforward games to call, with an unbeatable KuPS and a resolute but limited Haka side. Fast forward twelve months and it’s a far more interesting affair. The home teams won each of the two regular season matches 2-1.

After stuttering and faltering since the summer, KuPS finally beat a rival with an exciting 3-2 victory against Honka on Sunday although it wasn’t plain sailing. Janis Ikaunieks returned to the starting XI after being rested against SJK and was irresistible with two goals and an assist, a return to a form not seen for months. KuPS have extended the contract of defender Paulo Ricardo for next season and will need him on top form as conceding five goals in two games is poor for them. Winning this game in hand is vital if KuPS are to take the title race to the decider against HJK on the final day, their five point deficit looms over them and anything less than a showdown will be regression on last year.

With a very comfortable 2-0 win against SJK on Sunday, Haka come into this match with a serious momentum and an improving chance of automatic European qualification for the first time in over a decade. Lee Erwin’s sixteenth and seventeenth goals of the season were the difference and he played at a level rarely seen in Finland and is dominating defences everywhere he goes. Despite being out of contract at the end of the year, he has suggested he might stay if they make the  Conference League so that alone is a huge incentive for the club to push on without the need for the laborious play-offs. Winning their last five games suggests that might be the case.

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Honka v Inter

Any thoughts of a late Honka revival were dashed on Sunday as they followed their win over HJK with defeat in Kuopio. Fortunately, their swagger throughout the season will be remembered fondly after years of mismanagement and poor planning, but they must regroup if they’re to win a bronze medal for their exploits. With Haka breathing down their necks, this match will make or break the season. Two penalties against KuPS made the scoreline close but they were undone by the guile and clinical finishing of their opponents – something Inter have barely shown this year. Agon Sadiku has reached a dozen goals in his debut season in the top flight, a huge achievement. Their firepower should be sufficient to get past Inter and keep the race for bronze alive.

Inter’s mediocre season suffered another blow this week with the news that key midfielder Matias Ojala will miss the rest of the season after suffering a recurrence of a previous injury. They lost 3-0 away to HJK at the weekend without putting up a huge fight. Young defender Jussi Niska was sent off at the end of the game and will miss the Honka match, putting extra pressure on a thinning squad. They are coasting to the end of the year with an interim coach and will then enter the European play-offs without any momentum against one of the more upwardly mobile teams from the bottom six. 

Momentum and firepower should see Honka through this match comfortably.

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