Gem Bet: Luke Ayling - Over 0.5 Shots
Andy Robson
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💎 Gem Bet: Luke Ayling - Over 0.5 Player Shots @ 1.90 (bet365)
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After a huge slip up against Millwall, Boro are coming into this desperately needing a win to get back into the automatic promotion spots. In their last game they managed 32 shots, and only league leaders Coventry have taken more shots than them this season (659 to 630).
Boro are averaging 15.80 shots per game, and I think there's value when you look specifically at Luke Ayling. He had three shots in his last game against Millwall and has taken a shot in each of his last five games, stretching back to a shot in eight of his last nine. He's had multiple shots in four of his last five.
That angle is strengthened by the opposition. Swansea are a midtable side with no real threat of relegation but no realistic chance of the play-offs either. Boro, on the other hand, are challenging for automatic promotion and know they need to start strong.
You're getting 1.91 for this on bet365, compared to as short as 1.40 elsewhere, so it definitely feels like value. I think the price is based off his season record rather than his recent uptick in form and the context of this game.
Written by Andy Robson
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