Jamal Musiala turned in a devastating performance against Scotland in the opening match of the tournament – arguably the best he has managed in a Germany shirt.

He has four direct goal contributions (two goals and two assists) in his last seven outings for the national team, marking a dramatic improvement as he only had four goal contributions (one goal and three assists) in his first 23 caps. The youngster is thriving with greater responsibility.

Musiala is a player that the coach trusts in tight situations. He typically gets at least 80 minutes, and though he was withdrawn before that against Scotland, that was because the victory was already secured and he was being preserved for the games to come. Super Sub is applicable to this market even if he is withdrawn early.

Both of these teams saw more than this number of cards in their opening game. Germany picked up a couple of yellows while Hungary also picked up two. In total, there were nine cards shown across the pair’s Group A fixtures at an average of 4.5 across the pair.

Referee Danny Makkelie is not someone who has favoured German teams in the past. Nagelsmann has previously called him a “joke”.

Makkelie averages 3.49 cards per match across the 41 games he has overseen this season, with 32 of those fixtures producing at least three cards. In the Champions League and Europa League proper, he showed at least four cards in six of his seven matches, including seven yellows as Bayer Leverkusen drew 2-2 with Roma.

Germany are no strangers to playing Hungary. This will be the third time they have played in three years. Remarkably, the Germans have failed to win any of these matches but what has been a constant has been their domination of both ball and possession. In two of the three previous games, they have won six corners or more.

Although Nagelsmann’s side only recorded five corners against Scotland, it was clear that much of the potency went out of their game in the second half, which became about managing their players and energy levels rather than trying to exert pressure. This may well have been different had they been playing 11 men.

Hungary gave up six corners against a Switzerland team that is far less potent offensively than the Germany outfit they are going to come up against. They can expect to be under more pressure, both in terms of seeing less of the ball (they had 49% of possession against Switzerland).

Germany might have played weak opponents in matchday one, but they equally looked the most impressive side in the tournament to date. Nagelsmann’s outfit posted 2.1 xG, barely elevating their game for long periods, while they were also impressive defensively as they did not give up a shot (despite conceding an own goal).

The hosts have a squad bristling with offensive talent, so if someone in the starting XI is having an off day, they have a powerful replacement on the bench. Leroy Sane and in-form Borussia Dortmund striker Niclas Fullkrug were substitutes on Friday, and both looked determined to make an impact as they seek more regular game-time. The level of competition seems to be spurring them on.

They scored at least two goals in four of five internationals in 2024.
Hungary might have been defensively solid in qualifying, but against a higher class of opponent, they struggled. They conceded 2.3 xG against Switzerland, who exploited similar defensive weaknesses as Germany did when they played Scotland.

Attila Fiola is going to have his work cut out policing Jamal Musiala on the wing, assuming that both teams set up in the way they did in the opening match of the competition. Fiola was Hungary’s right wing back and he picked up a yellow card against Switzerland in the closing stages of the game.

The defender is no stranger to finding himself in trouble with a referee, having picked up 0.52 yellow cards per 90 with Vidi in the Hungarian top-flight this season and has been accumulating bookings at a rate of over 0.4 cards per 90 in five of the last seven seasons.

Musiala is a foul magnet, meanwhile. The winger picked up two free kicks against Scotland and also averaged drawing exactly 2.0 fouls per 90 when playing in the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich this season. He will naturally draw challenges from Fiola, and it may only take one mistake from the full back to see him cautioned once more, despite the risk of suspension.

Musiala’s direct opponent against Scotland, Anthony Ralston, was also booked in their opening game.

Florian Wirtz might not have had the fanfare of Musiala against Scotland, but he was almost equally as impressive as the Bayern Munich winger. He scored the opening goal of the tournament with a precise shot from the edge of the box.

Wirtz was arguably Germany’s greatest direct threat on goal throughout the game as he offered 0.2 xG from three shots. One of them hit the target. His average for the Bundesliga season was that he would hit the target with 47.1% of his efforts, and he had 1.25 shots on target per 90 for Leverkusen in the Bundesliga this season.

Expect Wirtz to be given a prominent role once again after being replaced around the hour mark on Friday to preserve his energy.

Switzerland’s two no. 10s combined for five shots against Hungary, hitting the target twice. Wirtz will expect to exploit these same gaps.