Gem Bet: Germany v Portugal
Harry Nye
Harry is a Christchurch-based football enthusiast whose love for sport and numbers naturally led him into the world of sports betting. While studying Mathematics at university, Harry began combining his analytical mindset with his passion for football. Harry focuses predominantly on football, with a particular emphasis on the Bundesliga this season, though as a Liverpool supporter (with a soft spot for QPR thanks to his dad), English football remains close to his heart. Whether it's late-night research or diving into stat models, Harry thrives on spotting the bets others might miss.
💎 Gem Bet: Leon Goretzka to have 2+ Shots @ 2.20 (bet365)
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Leon Goretzka to register two or more shots in this Nations League semi-final presents standout value at 2.10 with bet365, especially when compared to prices as short as 1.40 elsewhere. The disparity in pricing highlights a clear misjudgment of Goretzka’s offensive involvement, particularly when considering player-specific trends, tactical context, and his recent performances.
Despite being classified as a deeper-lying midfielder, Goretzka continues to be an influential offensive contributor. His recent recall to the national squad for the quarter-final ties against Italy (his first appearance since November 2023) underscores the impact of his club form and attacking threat from midfield.
Goretzka averaged 1.95 shots per 90 for Bayern Munich this season
He registered 2 or more shots in 13 of his last 16 games, playing more than 46 minutes
He amassed 6 shots across the two legs in the Nations League QF against Italy at an average of 3.53 shots per 90 (also scoring in the first leg)
Throughout his national career, Goretzka is averaging 2.82 shots per 90 in competitive fixtures
His underlying shot metrics place him among the top 8% of all central defensive midfielders in Europe this season, which is a remarkable figure that often goes unnoticed due to his more nominal starting position.
Julian Nagelsmann’s preferred systems (typically 4-2-3-1 or 4-2-2-2) grant licence for Goretzka to break forward, particularly when paired with a more conservative pivot. His late box entries, willingness to strike from range, and physicality make him a unique dual threat. Notably, Germany averages 17.0 shots per game across the tournament, rising to 20.25 at home. Equally, Portugal’s defence (especially away from home) has shown cracks.
They’ve allowed 13.5 shots per game on the road in the Nations League and were carved open repeatedly in their quarter-final leg away to Denmark, conceding 23 total shots. Given Germany’s high-possession style and home dominance, volume opportunities should favour Goretzka again.
For more insight, there is a Germany v Portugal Final Betting Preview also available on site.
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