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⚡ Back our Euro 2024 Group D Outright on Paddy Power @ 13.0
🇫🇷 France to win Group D
🇫🇷 Kylian Mbappe to score 4+ goals in Group D
🇦🇹 Austria to score 4+ goals in Group D
Group D is one of massive interest, with former European champions France and Netherlands tussling for top spot, but a Poland and Austria side are ready and waiting to spring a Euro 2024 shock.
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Check out our deep dives on Group A, Group B, Group C, Group E and Group F to make sure you’re up to scratch ahead of the big kick-off.
France and Netherlands are expected to stroll into the knockouts, but with the third-place route active and the high-profile duo facing off on matchday two, this group could be one of the most intriguing quartets of the competition.
📊 Group D odds
🇫🇷 France
📈
Group Winner Odds: 1.50
Cast your mind back to December 2022, the last major international tournament that ended in heartbreak for the French – denied back-to-back World Cup titles via a penalty shootout at the hands of Argentina.
Didier Deschamps comes into his third UEFA European Championship as France manager, having been eliminated in the round of 16 by Switzerland in 2021, and achieving a runners-up medal in 2016.
Led by superstar Kylian Mbappe, the French are priced at 4.75 to win the Euros, and as short as 1.50 to win Group D, but don’t be too quick to discount their opposition.
Despite a depth of quality across almost every position that is the envy of the rest of the field, Deschamps plays a risk-averse system that sees Les Bleus content to sit in at times to hit teams in transition. The Netherlands fixture on matchday two will be a good barometer for what kind of shape they are in, with many surprised to see England come into the competition as favourites ahead of them.
How they performed in qualifying
🇳🇱 Netherlands
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Group Winner Odds: 3.75
Behind France, Netherlands are favoured to qualify from Group D despite blowing hot and cold under Ronald Koeman. The Dutch have some headliner names in their XI, although are seemingly yet to nail down a preferred shape, constantly alternating between three and four defenders.
If Nations League results are anything to go off, it doesn’t bode well for the Netherlands, who were handed 2-1 and 4-0 defeats by the French. Recent history compounds concerns surrounding the Dutch. Having failed to qualify for the competition in 2016, they were then eliminated by the Czech Republic in the first knockout round in 2020. Ronald Koeman will be looking to reverse the poor campaigns of his predecessors.
Jeremie Frimpong, Micky van de Ven, and Xavi Simons all offer explosive options to Koeman that were not available to Louis van Gaal in Qatar. The underdog tag, with France in the group, could work in the favour of the former Southampton boss with the Dutch arriving in Germany as an 18/1 shot to win the competition.
How they performed in qualifying
🇦🇹 Austria
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Group Winner Odds: 8.0
Austria have been mightily impressive under former Manchester United manager Ralf Rangnick. Since the beginning of 2023, Austria have played 12 games (including friendlies), and have been defeated just once – beating Germany and Italy in that time.
The main concern for Rangnick will be how to replace David Alaba. The skipper tore his ACL in December for Real Madrid and is targeting a return to action in September. It seems likely Kevin Danso of Lens is the player to come in, but it’s still a massive blow for Austria.
Sweden reached the quarter-finals of the 2016 World Cup without Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Denmark kicked on to make the last four of Euro 2020 without talisman Christian Eriksen from matchday one. It is within the realms of possibility that Austria shake things up in this group even without Alaba. They still have quality all over the pitch and boast one of the best managers in the competition in terms of their reputation at club level. Rangnick will be looking to the likes of Konrad Laimer and Marcel Sabitzer to step up, and with Poland’s unconvincing route to the finals, qualification in third place is a very realistic goal.
How they performed in qualifying
🇵🇱 Poland
📈
Group Winner Odds: 15.0
To complete the group, it’s Poland, who qualified for the Euros via the play-offs by beating Wales on penalties. Spearheaded by Robert Lewandowski, the Poles rank as outsiders in the competition, priced at 15.0 to win the group, and odds-against (2.50) to qualify.
Piotr Zielinski is the standout player in the team aside from Lewandowski, he played a key role in Napoli’s Serie A title win in 2022/23. Matty Cash will miss out through injury, increasing concerns over the supply line to Lewandowski after the 35-year-old’s lowest goalscoring season since 2014/15, albeit against his very high standards.
It feels like Wojciech Szczesny is going to have to be bang at it if Poland are to progress to the last 16 stage, as they did at the last World Cup after getting out of a group containing Argentina, Mexico and Saudi Arabia.
How they performed in qualifying
👑 Who will win Group D?
Group D is packed with competitive sides, and it can really go either way. Group B and D are rivals this year for the ‘Group of Death’.
France come in as undisputed favourites, and it’s clear to see why. Not only do they have the highest calibre names, but they also seem to have what most European international teams lack – togetherness and chemistry in their play.
Kylian Mbappe is a key player under Deschamps and has typically featured off the left wing. We could witness an all-PSG frontline for the French, as Randal Kolo Muani and Ousmane Dembele could be set to start, with Antoine Griezmann operating behind the frontline. Deschamps has a plethora of talent at his fingertips – not to mention defensive options in William Saliba, Ibrahima Konate, Dayot Upamecano, and Benjamin Pavard at centre half alone. It’s a selection nightmare – but a good problem to have.
Mbappe won the Golden Boot at the World Cup in 2022, with eight goals in seven games – he also lit up the final, clawing his country back from 2-0 down with two goals within two minutes. He’s shown his capabilities on the big stage and seems to be playing at the peak of his powers.
It’s a very similar squad that won the 2018 World Cup under Deschamps, and nearly identical to that which fell at the last hurdle in Qatar. Losing in such circumstances should galvanise the squad, with added motivation to deliver a third European Championship to France.
Back France to win Group D at odds of 1.50 ⬇️
⬆️ Who will qualify from Group D?
Injuries have struck at the wrong time for Austria, with Alaba ruled out of the competition. Goals can be expected from Austria under Rangnick – a manager who intends to press intensely. Despite being gifted a few goals in their most recent international friendly, where they decimated Turkey to a 6-1 scoreline. International games tend to be cagey, and lack rhythm, but not Austria games. They have resisted being shut out in every game since September 2022 – with their last blank coming against France. That run includes 15 games in friendlies, Euro qualifiers and Nations League outings.
It’s been far from plain sailing, however, as Austria have also conceded in eight of those 15 games. With Alaba missing too, we could expect chances at either end of the field when Austria are involved. But they are a team who are well drilled, and accustomed to playing with one another – similar in a sense to France. The chaotic nature of their games could work in their favour.
With so few games to acclimatise, it pays dividends in competitions like the Euros to hit the ground running. Although the Dutch managed that feat most recently at the 2022 World Cup, topping the group, there has been a lack of consistency in their lineups and general play since Koeman took charge. France have been a real bogey side, having overcome the Netherlands twice in the qualifiers. Another loss in the group stages would spell real danger for Koeman, who would need a result against both Poland and Austria to ensure progression.
Since their run to the quarter-finals in the 2016 Euros Poland have dropped off. It’s a tough group, and despite possessing some notable talent, they are the outsiders. Contrary to Austria, Poland are likely to focus more on defensive efficiency and organisation. Recognisable names in Wojciech Szczesny, Jakub Kiwior and Jan Bednarek are set to start at the back.
If the play-off final against Wales is anything to go by, Poland will have to rely on these players to carry them through the group stages. Poland did not manage a single shot on target in both regulation and extra time, before Juventus goalkeeper Szczesny bailed them out, saving the final penalty from Dan James.
Poland did not convince in the group phase of qualification either, finishing third in a group of Albania, Czech Republic, Moldova and the Faroe Islands. In eight games, they managed just three wins – two against Faroe Islands, and one against Albania. They were particularly poor in front of goal, which spells trouble in such a tough group.
Austria are the team to side with in the to qualify market in this group, the price is too short on the Netherlands (1.20), and the likelihood is that Rangnick’s men will progress if they beat Poland.
Back Austria to qualify from Group D at odds of 1.67 ⬇️
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* All odds displayed correctly at the time of publishing *
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