💎 Gem Bet: Kyle Joseph - Over 1.5 Fouls Committed @ 2.00 (Bet365)

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Kyle Joseph is set to lead the line for Hull City in this FA Cup tie, alongside Oli McBurnie, which is a front two that can cause Chelsea problems. Chelsea have struggled with sides being physical against them all season, their loss at Elland Road is perhaps the clearest example of this weakness with Chelsea losing 3-1 in that clash and Leeds having a similar set up to what we can expect from Hull here with a front two of Calvert-Lewin and Nmecha. 

Hull are one of the most aggressive sides in the Championship, they currently sit top of the yellow card table in the second division having picked up 74 yellow cards across their 31 matches in the Championship (2.38 per game). They also rank high for fouls, only Charlton, Derby and Millwall have committed more fouls in the Championship this season than Hull, with Joseph being a main contributor to this promising foul record. 

Joseph has committed 40 fouls across his 22 starts in the Championship this term, working out to an average of 2.04 per 90. I always like backing strikers to commit fouls when I know that they will be at the head of a low block system. Strikers in these systems almost always end up with decent foul numbers, as they are left to chase down lost causes without much support. This was evident in Chelsea’s 5-1 win over Charlton in the last round of the FA Cup, Kelman committed two fouls and his striking partner in Leaburn also committed a foul. 

Chelsea drew 11 fouls in total from Charlton in that clash, and their man to man pressing system should set up the individual duels we need for Joseph to commit at least two fouls in this clash. There is excellent value with this angle when backing with Bet365, the exact same angle is priced as low as 1.3 with other major bookmakers.