Backing Inter Milan’s goalkeeper to make 1+ saves against Red Star Belgrade is a sensible choice with the bookies seemingly underestimating the attacking threat Red Star may pose. Across their three Champions League matches so far (2 in qualifying), they have forced the opposition keeper into nine saves, including at least one in each. It was the same story in their last UCL campaign despite playing six matches including two against Manchester City; in fact, in all bar one game, they forced 3+ saves. As for Inter, Sommer has made at least one save in each of their seven games this season, averaging over 3 per match. Last season, this selection was a winner in 35/38 league games and 7/8 in the Champions League.

Along similar lines, we also predict the Red Star Belgrade keeper to have a busy night. Inter Milan have forced the opposition keeper into making three or more saves in each of the last three games. Two of those were against AC Milan and Manchester City who one would expect to be a lot more defensively sound compared to Red Star Belgrade. To find other teams with a comparable attacking threat to Inter we have to look back at Red Star’s last Champions League campaign, which certainly suggests that three saves is far from unassailable. Over the course of the tournament, they averaged over 5 saves, in addition to the 2.5 goals conceded, per 90.

Although Inter haven’t had the most straightforward of campaign starts, they’ve still demonstrated enough quality to suggest a two-goal winning margin is well within reach here. In the league, Inter have scored 11 goals while conceding just 3 from open play, arguably contesting with teams considerably stronger than Red Star Belgrade. This season hasn’t been a one-off by any means for the Nerazzurri who won exactly half of their league matches by 2 or more goals last year, and nine by a margin of four or more. Some of the most impressive included a 5-1 thumping of Milan, 3-0 wins against Lazio and Napoli, and the 4-0 demolition of Atalanta ( a feat they’ve already repeated this season).

Thuram has gotten off to a very fast start this season, scoring four goals and notably drawing nine fouls, contributing to a 1.62 per 90 average. That’s pretty much in line with what we’ve come to expect from the French forward who averaged 1.5 fouls drawn per game last season including at least one in 80% of his games (60+ mins). Inter are likely to dominate the ball and frustrate Red Star Belgrade who are used to overwhelming significantly weaker sides in the Serbian SuperLiga. They’ve committed 12+ fouls in each of their three Champions League matches this season and their toughest challenge awaits as they travel to the San Siro.

From what we’ve seen so far, this could be Thuram’s best season yet in an Inter shirt, with the Frenchman currently Serie A’s top scorer with four goals to his name. Notably, he’s also accumulated nine shots on target; an average of just under 1.7 per 90 minutes. We expect him to find even more joy against Red Star Belgrade’s shaky defence who aren't used to this calibre of opposition. That said they did get a taste of it last season where they conceded an averaged of over 7 shots on target per game. Their weakest opponents were Young Boys and yet even they accumulated 5+ shots on target in each leg. Comparatively, their toughest game was Manchester City away, a game in which they conceded 37 shots and 16 shots on target. Perhaps it’s also worth mentioning that Inter just came away from The Etihad with a draw.

It took Lautaro Martinez a while to grow into the season, possibly given Argentina’s long road to the Copa America trophy but he looks back to his best and ready to be a thorn in the side of Red Star Belgrade. The Inter star scored a brace last time out against Udinese and was clearly brimming with confidence, before and after his goals. Inzaghi went on to take him off which hopefully indicates he’ll start this clash. The Serie A and Copa America Golden Boot winner scored 24 league goals last season, averaging 0.81 per game. He’s also on penalties and will surely fancy his chances at getting ahead in the race for top UCL goal scorer.

Never say never, but you’d be right to assume that the idea behind this selection is mainly aimed towards an Inter clean sheet. The Nerazzurri are notoriously strong defensively and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they blocked out Red Star Belgrade and numbed their attack. Last season they kept 21 league clean sheets, averaging just 0.63xGa per game. They also kept another four in the Champions League, achieving the feat against Benfica, Salzburg, Real Sociedad and Atlético Madrid.

Although it’d come as some surprise if Red Star Belgrade exceeded Inter’s corner count, backing them to win three is definitely worth a shout. Across their last six matches, the Serbian side have averaged 8.7 per game, hitting the three threshold in all of them. There is of course a difference in quality between the Serbian SuperLiga and the Champions League, but that streak of six actually includes two matches in the latter competition. Most recently in Red Star Belgrade’s clash with Benfica, they caught the bookmakers off guard, accumulating seven corners and conceding just one. Going a bit further back, we can also look at their performance in last season’s Champions League. They failed to make it out of the group which consisted of Man City, Young Boys and RB Leipzig and yet this selection nonetheless would have won in all of their games bar those against the reigning English Champions.