Inter v AC Milan
In a massive game in the Champions League, it is not often you are treated to one of the world’s biggest derbies in the late stages of a major competition. Inter Milan have put themselves in a good position to go through to the final while Milan need a mighty comeback and will push forward looking for goals. Inter Milan ran away with it in the first half of the first leg outshooting AC Milan 13-4 but were pushed back in the second half and outshot 10-5.
We have picked out a 3.5/1 Inter Milan vs AC Milan bet builder and having seen how the teams faced up in the first leg, we have a great idea of where to look for Inter Milan tips and AC Milan tips.
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Inzaghi’s Boys Nearly Inter the Final
Inter Milan are in excellent form and with 7 wins in a row in all competitions, they are full of confidence. These 7 wins in a row become even more impressive when you consider that they have played Roma, Juventus, AC Milan, and Lazio in this period. Inter do not have to attack, with a deserved 2-0 lead in the first leg, they will now play in front of their own fans to qualify for the final. They will have to be wary of complacency however, their quarter-final second leg against Benfica ended 3-3 having won the first leg 2-0 and while they were always in control, they did give up more chances than they would have liked.
Inter Milan definitely have the psychological advantage, they have won the last 3 time they have played and won them all without conceding a goal. Inter Milan are extremely good at home, they have won 11 of their last 16 home games and with the majority of the San Siro crowd behind them this time, they will want to use this to their advantage to secure their Champions League Final place.
Inter Team News
Inter made 8 changes to their side at the weekend and 2 of the 3 that had started the first leg were subbed off after 60 minutes anyway. This was no issue for Inter though, they beat Sassuolo 4-2 and will have given Inzaghi some thinking to do about his starting line-up for the second leg.
Inter are still without Milan Skriniar or Dalbert while Joaquin Correa is also a doubt after being subbed off at halftime at the weekend. Inter have coped well without Skriniar and Dalbert for a long time now, while Correa is not a key member of the squad so Inter do not have any major selection worries.
Milan Looking for Redemption in Rivalry Rematch
Having been on a 9-match unbeaten run (albeit including 5 draws) going into the first leg, AC Milan have not lost 2 matches in a row. After a disappointing first-leg performance in midweek, Milan lost 2-0 to relegation candidates Spezia at the weekend, this prompted a bizarre moment after the match where the manager and players went over to the AC Milan ultras and listened as they were lectured by their fans. AC Milan are poor away from home as well, they have won just 3 of their last 15 home matches so will have to rely on the spirit of their players and the magic of a derby match if they are to make the final.
Milan have had different goalscorers for all of their last 5 goals in all competitions however with Leao expected to return for this match, they at least have their star man back. Leao is 5th highest in Serie A for goal contributions with 19 this season, and Giroud is Milan’s next highest player on the list with 13. Leao is likely to be central to everything Milan do here meaning he is an important player for AC Milan bet builders.
AC Milan Team News
As previously alluded to, the main news for AC Milan is the return of Rafael Leao to Milan’s squad for this game. After serious doubts that he would be fit for this game, Pioli has now said that as long as today’s training session goes okay, he will start for Milan.
AC Milan will be missing a few players, Junior Messias is injured and is a doubt for this match, he came off the bench to replace injured Ismael Bennacer in the first leg. If this wasn’t enough, Rade Krunic is also a doubt, like Messias he wasn’t in the squad at the weekend however this may have been to make sure that they are available for the second leg instead.
Inter v AC Milan Cheat Sheet
There could be a potential for plenty of fouls on Wednesday night, and look no further than the overloaded midfield of Inter to disrupt the flow of Milan’s attack. Calhanoglu and Barella look set to start in a five-man midfield for the ‘home’ side, and both rank in the top 5 in terms of fouls committed per 90 for Inter.
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Inter v AC Milan
12 players committed at least 2 fouls in the first leg but no more than Calhanoglu who committed 4 fouls. Calhanoglu has 1.7 fouls per 90 so far this season and has committed at least 2 fouls in all of his last 6 starts for Inter.
Against his former club, Calhanoglu clearly likes to get stuck in, for him to commit 2+ fouls has landed in all 3 of the matchups between the teams this season. Tonali and Krunic in Milan’s midfield all draw over a foul per 90 while Diaz draws fouls per 90, they will all be able to draw fouls from Calhanoglu.
AC Milan had 13 shots in the first leg yet hit the target with just 2 as they were left frustrated by Inter. In this leg they will have to push forward yet again, however, if they struggle to break Inter down this will end up in a lot of speculative shots from them yet again. Tonali had 3 shots in the first leg from 17, 23, and yards out. With an average of 1.1 shots per 90 this season from an average distance of 22.2 yards out, we can expect that Tonali will see his name in the lights at least once this game and attempt a long-range shot.
While the return of Leao represents a major goalscoring threat for AC Milan, his impact as a creator will also be massive. Leao makes 4.58 shots creating actions per 90, this will be a massive benefit to the likes of Olivier Giroud up front. Giroud had 3 shots in the first leg which were all off target with very few real chances.
With Leao back in the side, Giroud is no longer the major threat and may find a bit of extra space. Leao will also help Giroud get chances, with 3 shots in the first leg, he should get more and better chances this leg, resulting in him having at least 1 shot on target.
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