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Italy v Turkey
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Kick Off: Tuesday 4th June at 20:00
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Competition: International Friendly
Defending European champions Italy begin preparations for Euro 2024 in earnest in Bologna on Tuesday with an encounter against fellow qualifiers Turkey.
The Azzurri famously claimed the title at Wembley a little over three years ago thanks to a penalty shoot-out victory over England, but Luciano Spalletti’s side are not among the favourites in Germany. Indeed, they can be backed at 19.0 to go all the way.
Their opponents at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara are a Turkey side that qualified at the expense of Wales and ahead of Croatia, so they are an opponent that deserves respect, despite poor recent friendly results. Visiting coach Vincenzo Montella will have an intimate knowledge of the hosts being a former Italy striker.
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Italy v Turkey Best Bets
Turkey’s weak performances in recent friendlies suggest that Italy are good value at 1.55 to get a victory, particularly as the visitors may be bereft of a couple of key figures.
In terms of scorers, Pellegrini is nice value at 3.75 if he gets the nod to start given his club form.
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⚔️ Italy v Turkey Head-to-Head
Italy dispatched Turkey 3-0 at Euro 2020, with an own goal from Merih Demiral followed by strikes from Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne. Neither of the Azzurri’s scorers on that occasion will be involved in this game, although Demiral may line up for the guests.
The last meeting between these nations, meanwhile, came in March 2022, when Italy claimed a 3-2 success in Turkey. Giacomo Raspadori, who will be involved on Tuesday, netted two of his six international goals to date that day, while Bryan Cristante also netted.
Turkey’s scorers in that previous clash were Cengiz Under and Serdar Dursun, although neither will be involved in Bologna.
📊 Italy Form and Stats
Italy chose to go to the USA in March to play friendlies against Venezuela and Ecuador. Spalletti’s side won those matches 2-1 and 2-0 respectively, though it is difficult to gauge just how good those results were.
Qualification for the finals, meanwhile, was something of a trial. A couple of defeats against England left them vulnerable, while a 1-1 draw against North Macedonia away from home meant they needed to avoid defeat away to Ukraine to progress. They did that, turning up in tournament mode to draw 0-0.
Indeed, this is a squad that does not necessarily score many goals. Nicolo Barella is the leading marksman in this group but has just nine international strikes, including the last one against Ecuador.
Fellow midfielder Lorenzo Pellegrini is one to watch given his strong end to the season for Roma in Daniele De Rossi’s revolution in the Eternal City. He is likely to start one of Italy’s two pre-tournament friendlies and was selected to start in attack against Ecuador, making him a potentially attractive proposition.
Although Italy had a relatively low shot on target count with 4.50 per 90, they were very efficient with the efforts they did have, scoring 44% of those that found the target.
The Azzurri, meanwhile, do tend to have a relatively high yellow card count. Six of their last ten matches have seen them pick up at least two bookings, while they picked up four cards against Ecuador in their last friendly game.
📊 Turkey Form and Stats
Turkey qualified for Euro 2024 by winning qualifying Group D ahead of Croatia and Wales. Against their main rivals, they picked up a couple of wins and a draw, with their sole defeat coming at home against the Croats.
While Montella’s side have done well in competitive fixtures, they have not been nearly as strong in friendly matches. Indeed, they have lost their last four, going down 4-2 to Japan last September, before a 1-0 reverse in Hungary and a thumping 6-1 loss against Austria in their last outing. Prior to this run was the aforementioned loss to Italy.
Turkey, meanwhile, do not have one dominant scorer. Indeed, their last seven international goals have been netted by different players. Cenk Tosun and Hakan Calhanoglu are the most prolific players in the squad, with 20 and 18 international goals respectively, yet there is no one close to scoring at a rate of a goal every other game.
They did manage 5.63 shots on target per 90 in qualifying, which was more than one per game more than their opponents.
While the Crescent Stars did not record a big foul count in qualifying – 11.3 per game was around average – they posted the fourth-most cards per game of all teams with 3.38. They also picked up five yellows in their March friendlies.
Also, note that Turkey may be without a couple of key players for this game in the form of key central midfielder Emre Can and the highly exciting attacking prospect Arda Guler due to their participation in the Champions League final. Real Madrid star Guler did not play in that encounter and, therefore, is likelier to get some minutes here.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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