The safest pick of all appears to be Paul to win but the bookmakers are deeply rooted in the same conclusion on Paul to win outright. 

Jake Paul trains hard. He is a dedicated athlete, albeit one trying to learn a profession in a spotlight disproportionately bright given his excruciatingly modest ability and the pensionable age of many of his opponents. As the saying goes, ‘hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard.’ His own activity – he only boxes twice a year – is reflective of Paul’s box-office appeal and not conducive to developing toward the title fight he portrays as his goal. Novice professionals, especially those without Amateur background, should box frequently in their early careers to help form their style and learn their craft. Paul simply doesn’t conform to those conventions. But not because of innate ability, merely that his career is superficial in meaning. The soundbytes too.

Paul has some power, although he isn’t a busy puncher and is often guilty of trying to portray boxing acumen and precision he doesn’t possess. His fights are often moribund and not the entertaining brawls he invariably promises. It is in the reality of a slower fight in which opportunity is created for Chavez. 

The son of the legendary Julio Cesar Chavez has never had the engine of his father, the legendary Lightweight from the 1980s and 90s, and Junior is now older, less active, above his prime weight class and with a history of fading in longer fights. He concedes reach and a fraction in height too. Were Paul busy and working in combinations on the front foot, however uncoordinated that may be, Chavez could have the class to counter, but he lacks the grit or energy to resist for very long, and his muscle memory is eroded by inactivity – the enemy of all fighters, especially older ones. Chavez’s prospects would be aided by a slower, low action fight in which he can manage his energy, develop rhythm and hope his greater technique can cause Paul problems and inject self-doubt.

Value could be found in considering backing the Over 1.5 knockdowns at 7/4. It runs counter to the lack of ‘action’ provided by Jake Paul contests, however loud the build-up promises are shouted, but I question Chavez’s appetite for the challenge, and he is a long way from Middleweight, the division of his 20s.

Punters looking for something more specific and a richer return could consider tagging the three results together, creating a 29/1 accumulator. Small investment recommended as both protagonists are flawed and the nature of Paul’s career demands many of the ‘norms’ of boxing betting are ignored.

More specific still, is finding an outlet willing to provide odds on Chavez quitting on his stool between rounds. The disguise of injury a welcome costume for a forlorn and embarrassed Chavez Jr.

Jake Paul jubilant, Chavez Senior with his head in hands.

Scope to support the upset requires a faith in the idea Chavez Jr has revitalised his interest in training – despite the comfort of the 200lb limit – and can reverse the evidence of decline in his late 30s. 5/1 is available to tempt those who back technical ability over youth and focus. I prefer the prospect of Chavez fading in the second half and looking for a way out.  Jake Paul can be backed at 8/1 to win in the 7-8 rounds. A pairing superior to the 9-10 rounds at 11/1. If Chavez gets that close to the finish line, he is likely to persevere and hold on for a points verdict he can parlay into a controversy.

Paul tends to be cautious. When faced with Tommy Fury – himself only a raw and barely competent novice – Paul's bravado faded, and he became inert in the face of even Fury’s pillow punches. Chavez is hard to have faith in – but Jake Paul is not Danny Jacobs or Canelo Alvarez – and a slow fight where Chavez can find his feet or establish a jab could be problematic for Paul. Trusting Chavez was difficult in his prime. Prone to erratic performances and entanglements with substances at odds with his professional career, he has had fluctuating fortunes, and his career has been in deep atrophy for 5 years. 

I therefore expect Paul to try and emerge from that careful persona and be bolder in tactics. Relying on Chavez’s footwork being clumsier than in his prime, particularly early on, Paul should try and impose himself physically. Seeking out any softness in Chavez’s will. Chavez is a former champion, albeit only a belt holder, but he is also one with a sloppy, horrendous 2021 points defeat to Anderson Silva, a geriatric UFC star, that appears on Chavez’s resume more recently than a notable victory.

Strangely for a Jake Paul fight – Silva is a shared opponent. Chavez lost on points, Paul won a year later, dropping Silva in the process. Chavez evidently not taking the preparation seriously. A truth that doesn’t bode well for his supporters this week. Although a decisive victory over Paul would prove a lucrative one, given it would probably lead to a rematch in which he would hold far more negotiating cards. A rich prize for a veteran fighter a decade removed from relevance and rankings.