Bayern Munich failed to land a single shot on target when they lost to Lazio in Rome last month, though bettors should expect a much-improved performance from the six-time Champions League winners in Bavaria.

Bayern’s results this season have been uninspiring enough to push Thomas Tuchel towards a summer exit, however, they have yet to lose at home on the continent this term and their record of just one defeat in 23 previous Champions League matches at the Allianz Arena since March 2019 is seriously impressive.

In contrast, Lazio have been all too beatable on the road on their sporadic entries into the competition. The Italians lost two of their three group games on their travels before Christmas, in fact, their 2-1 win at Celtic in October remains their only UCL away victory of any kind since 2007.

With their Bundesliga crown on the verge of being relinquished, progress in the Champions League has become all the more vital for Bayern and while prices are tight, they should be motivated to beat an inferior outfit Lazio in Germany.

Bayern need to score at least twice to turn the tie on its head and backing them to net over 1.5 times against Lazio could be a smart pick-up with that in mind. Lazio conceded 42 shots in their three away games in Group E, and shipped five goals combined in their last two tussles on the road in the section to Feyenoord (1-3) and Atletico Madrid (2-0).

Tuchel’s Munich have been averaging 3.13 goals per home fixture in all competitions this season and they have the class in the final third to convert at least a couple of chances here.

With Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry sidelined and doubts over the availability of Leroy Sane, French youngster Mathys Tel could be handed another opportunity to start having featured in the XI at Freiburg at the weekend, and the 18-year-old is talented enough to make an impact.

Tel scored one of Bayern’s two goals in their 2-2 draw against Freiburg on Friday from one of his two efforts on target and he should be well-positioned on the flank against Lazio to test Ivan Provedel with another strike this evening.

On the opposite side, Jamal Musiala will be lurking with just as much menace. The 21-year-old landed three shots on target against Freiburg at the weekend and he had a game-high equalling four shots when Bayern lost to Lazio last month.

Musiala had the beating of fullback Adam Marusic that evening and he could have too much in his arsenal for Lazio’s Montenegrin again in the return leg in Germany.

Harry Kane’s shot-market prices are unsurprisingly short, though the England star can be backed at 1.44 to score or assist against Lazio, which looks like excellent value.

The 30-year-old has scored four times in seven Champions League appearances since moving to Bayern Munich, though his haul of three assists from the same set of fixtures points to an often-unheralded ability to create for others.

Kane should be central to all of Bayern’s patterns in the final third again this evening, so back him to make another match-defining impact.

In seven Champions League fixtures so far this season, Bayern Munich have won the corner count on six occasions, with the only exception coming in their dead-rubber final group game against Manchester United at Old Trafford.

However, prices as stingy as 1.14 floating about in the Bayern corner match bet stakes will do little to enhance your bet builders, while the -4.0 corner handicap offered also holds little appeal.

Bayern have won four or more corners than their opponents just once in the Champions League this term, and while their dominance of possession generally allows them to rack up more corners than the teams they face in Europe, winning hatfuls of corners doesn’t seem to be a key part of Thomas Tuchel’s tactical blueprint.

The Germans have been winning 5.71 corners per 90 minutes in the Champions League in 2023/24 while conceding an average of 3.00 at the other end. Therein lies the best value and backing Bayern to win over 5.50 corners for the fourth time in five home matches in Europe appeals.

Over 2.5 corners also feels like a modest barrier to vault for Lazio in Bavaria if you’re looking for some padding. The Italians have failed to beat that target just once in seven Champions League fixtures this season.

Dayot Upamecano flashpoint aside, the first leg between Lazio and Bayern Munich was relatively even-tempered throughout and only two cards in total were brandished to the players involved on an evening when just 17 fouls were committed.

Star Bayern striker Harry Kane didn’t give away a free kick in Italy last month, though his lack of a foul in the first leg was something of a trend-bucking outcome for the 30-year-old who has been averaging 1.0 foul per game in the Champions League this season.

Kane has also sinned at least once in five of his last six appearances in the Bundesliga and with his physical style of play always likely to ruffle feathers, he looks a big price to foul at least once again this evening.

Lazio right-back Adam Marusic is available at an eye-catching price in the same market. The defender struggled to get to grips with Jamal Musiala in the first leg when he won only half of his attempted tackles and committed one foul. The 31-year-old fouled four times in his last three Champions League appearances overall and he could feel the squeeze again in Munich.

Lazio centre-half Alessio Romagnoli, who also committed a foul against Bayern in the first leg, likes to defend on the front foot, though his tackling can be overzealous as a result. The 29-year-old committed nine fouls in his last five Serie A runouts combined and five fouls in his four Champions League Group Stage appearances.

Romagnoli should have a considerable amount of defending to do in at the Allianz Arena and his chances of fouling at least once are high again.