Despite being the ‘away’ side for this match, AS Roma will be in familiar surroundings given these teams share the Stadio Olímpico, and that feels a significant element here, especially given how inconsistent Mourinho’s side have been on the road this season. In fact it’s playing at this stadium that’s been the catalyst for some excellent performances and another huge effort is expected in this one.

AS Roma are now unbeaten at home since the beginning of September and have lost just twice in the last twenty matches at this venue, both coming against the Milan clubs. That run has included fourteen wins and four draws and despite losing both matches against Lazio last season, the 0-0 draw back in October shows that Mourinho is starting to get the measure of his counterpart.

Mourinho’s outfit looked really good at the weekend against a very dangerous Atalanta side as they registered sixteen efforts on goal in a 1-1 draw and something similar here will be concerning for Sarri. In contrast, his side were abject as they put in a very laboured performance in a scrappy game against a poor Udinese team, but they did manage to win the game 2-1 to make it three on the bounce.

There is certainly plenty of value to be had in the Team Shots on Target market for AS Roma, and that’s the angle to focus on. In Serie A, Mourinho’s side have registered a total of 72 on target this campaign at a rate of 3.79 per game, with six of those testing the Atalanta goalkeeper on Sunday. They are taken to back that up here, especially with Romelu Lukaku and Paulo Dybala fit and firing.

Lazio themselves are giving up an average of 3.74 shots on target in the league this term, with shot-shy Udinese managing a couple at the weekend, while in the two games prior to that one, struggling Frosinone and Empoli also registered two and seven respectively. With due respect, AS Roma possess more firepower than those sides and taking them to have three or four is the preference.

Alessio Romagnoli is expected to return to the Lazio back line following a spell on the sidelines through injury, and his lack of match sharpness could be exploited by Paulo Dybala. The forward is averaging 1.02 shots on target this season, having had eleven in the league and the Argentinian has scored two goals in his last three games since returning from injury and he’s looked really sharp.

If there is a prime candidate for fouls committed in this contest, it’s Lazio midfielder Nicolo Rovella. The young combative Italian has already committed a staggering 27 fouls during fifteen appearances this campaign at a rate of nearly two per game. Up against the likes of Bryan Cristante and Leandro Parades, he could easily get embroiled and bring down his opponents to attract Orsato’s attention.

With Orsato officiating, those fouls could easily turn into cards and that’s a sensible area for the bet builder. The referee has a career average of 5.17 yellows per game and has issued 48 red cards in his 242 matches. With the emotions of the derby running high, it’s conceivable that each team collects a couple of cards, especially considering they both average around 2.5 cards per game.

Gianluca Mancini is the first name that springs to mind in this market, and the AS Roma defender is fancied to work his way into the book. Mancini averages 1.63 fouls per game this season and has already collected four yellow cards in the league, one of which came in the 0-0 against Lazio. He’ll be up against Mattia Zaccagni who is the one of the league’s most fouled players, drawing 47 so far.

Mancini himself is brought down frequently, a rate of around one foul drawn per game. The battle with Zaccagni is certainly an interesting one as the Lazio winger also commits plenty of fouls himself (an average of 1.23 per appearance) and it would be no surprise to see that particular duel spark during the course of 90 minutes. He’s one that can lose his cool and has five yellows already this term.