Carlisle United v Stockport County

Stockport came back in dramatic circumstances last weekend, equalising in extra time after a deflected effort in the first period saw Salford retake the aggregate lead, before the Hatters defeated their Greater Manchester rivals on penalties.

Carlisle also needed an extra 30 minutes to see off Bradford, but a 3-1 win at home was enough to deservedly ease them through into the final of the League Two play-offs.

Neither side has been in League One for quite some time now, and both will be desperate to go up, after a season in which both looked likely to gain automatic promotion at various different stages. In fact, it was the 2-2 draw at Edgeley Park between these two sides which both will point to as perhaps the key result that condemned them to the play-offs instead.

This should be a fantastic final, and we have found some serious value in this game. Our Carlisle v Stockport Bet Builder tips make up an extremely enticing bet of 7/2 when combined. 

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The Messiah takes the Cumbrians to Wembley

It was just over 15 months ago that Paul Simpson made his return to Carlisle United, more than 15 years after leading the club to consecutive promotions as player manager. Carlisle at the time sat inside the League Two relegation zone, and in just over a season Simpson has guided the Cumbrians to survival, and then led the Blues to a play-off final and a realistic season-long pursuit of third tier football.

Simpson’s achievement with Carlisle is one of the most impressive you will find anywhere this season. The 56-year-old has raised the level of several players other promotion chasers would not have considered worthwhile, turning Owen Moxon into one of the fourth tier’s superstars and Kristian Dennis into a 20-goal striker who isn’t even guaranteed a start with the competition around him.

Carlisle United were heavily unfancied before a ball was kicked, and were even unfancied ahead of their play-off tie with Bradford City given the setbacks suffered in the latter weeks of the season. Having lost the first leg at Valley Parade though, the Cumbrians won a thrilling second leg at Brunton Park 3-1 after extra time to progress 3-2 on aggregate. Aside from arguably the first half of the first leg, Carlisle had the better of Bradford throughout the tie, and now find themselves just one game away from third tier football for the first time since 2014.

Carlisle United team news

It was an interesting afternoon of emotions for defender Ben Barclay, the man whose extra-time goal saw Carlisle through to Wembley at Bradford City’s expense. Barclay is however on loan from Stockport County, and unable to play against his parent club. It will be a real shame to see him not part of a Wembley final that he is responsible for getting his team to.

Carlisle will be boosted however by the return of Jon Mellish from suspension. A red card in the penultimate league game against Salford City left the 25-year-old suspended for both legs of the play-off semi-final against Bradford City. Mellish is back however and can return to being a key cog in either the Carlisle defence or midfield and could well compensate for Ben Barclay’s absence.

Top scorer Kristian Dennis only made the bench last weekend after suffering a freak injury in training but seems hopeful that he should be ok to feature as part of the squad at the national stadium.

Simpson will go out to win this final League Two game and should retain the 3-5-2 played at Brunton Park on Saturday. Tomáš Holý will remain in goal behind a back three of Corey Whelan, Paul Huntington and most likely the returning Jon Mellish. Jack Armer and Joel Senior should start at wing-back, with Owen Moxon, Callum Guy and Alfie McCalmont forming a midfield three. The experienced Joe Garner may be fancied to start up top alongside John Kymani-Gordon who had a big impact in the second leg against Bradford City. Kristian Dennis, Ryan Edmondson and Omari Patrick are alternatives in the striker position though.

Paul Simpson may however consider switching to a 4-3-3 with Mellish back in midfield. It would drop Armer and Senior back to full-back roles and take McCalmont out of the team with one of Patrick or Dennis most likely to join a three-man frontline.

The seven-year plan

When local businessman Mark Stott completed a takeover of Stockport County back in January 2020, it began a rapid rise and a long-term plan for the upper end of the Football League pyramid. 

Newly-promoted to the National League at the time, Stockport set a seven-year plan in place to reach the Championship, requiring three promotions in that time in order to get there. Having achieved the first promotion just last season by winning the National League, they are now one game from earning a second promotion in what is just year three of the plan.

Dave Challinor’s side booked their place at Wembley through an eventful second leg at Edgeley Park. Having lost 1-0 to Salford City at the Peninsula Stadium, the Hatters were able to pull back level on aggregate through an Isaac Olaofe header, then quickly recover from a late extra-time Salford goal to send the tie to spot-kicks. In front of yet another bumper crowd in Edgeley, goalkeeper and club icon Ben Hinchliffe saved twice as Stockport won the shootout 3-1 and progressed.

A season that started with expectations of a second consecutive promotion challenge could yet still be realised. The trip to Wembley is their first since Stockport played in the fourth-tier play-off final back in 2008. They beat Rochdale 3-2 in front of 35,715 that year and will be keen to beat another northern club in front of an even bigger crowd this time.

Stockport County team news

Stockport got a second-leg boost with the return of several key attacking personnel. Paddy Madden returned to make the starting eleven, Will Collar and Antoni Sarcevic were both available to make the bench and come on in the second half. The gamble of removing Ryan Croasdale from the centre of midfield paid off on this occasion, but Dave Challinor may be keen to bring him back in with Stockport not entering this game with a deficit already affecting them.

The Hatters 3-5-2 will include stalwart Ben Hinchliffe in goal, with Fraser Horsfall and Chris Hussey part of the defence in front of him. If Croasdale is brought back in, Akil Wright should be moved into the right side of the back three. Kyle Knoyle will play at right-wing-back. Ryan Rydel’s talent and crossing ability should make him a deserved starter at left-wing-back, though both Hussey and Myles Hippolyte can play there instead.

Akil Wright will continue in a disciplined midfield role if Croasdale is not brought back in. Any of Callum Camps, Conor Lemonheigh-Evans, Will Collar, Myles Hippolyte and Antoni Sarcevic could be the other two in midfield. Camps and Lemonheigh-Evans started both semi-final legs.

If fit, Paddy Madden and Isaac Olaofe will be the favourites to start up top whilst top scorer Kyle Wootton remains injured. Jack Stretton is the alternative.

Carlisle United v Stockport County Cheat Sheet

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