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Carlisle United v Stockport County
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Competition: League Two Play-Off Final
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
Stockport came back in dramatic circumstances last weekend, equalising in extra time after a deflected effort in the first period saw Salford retake the aggregate lead, before the Hatters defeated their Greater Manchester rivals on penalties.
Carlisle also needed an extra 30 minutes to see off Bradford, but a 3-1 win at home was enough to deservedly ease them through into the final of the League Two play-offs.
Neither side has been in League One for quite some time now, and both will be desperate to go up, after a season in which both looked likely to gain automatic promotion at various different stages. In fact, it was the 2-2 draw at Edgeley Park between these two sides which both will point to as perhaps the key result that condemned them to the play-offs instead.
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The Messiah takes the Cumbrians to Wembley
It was just over 15 months ago that Paul Simpson made his return to Carlisle United, more than 15 years after leading the club to consecutive promotions as player manager. Carlisle at the time sat inside the League Two relegation zone, and in just over a season Simpson has guided the Cumbrians to survival, and then led the Blues to a play-off final and a realistic season-long pursuit of third tier football.
Simpson’s achievement with Carlisle is one of the most impressive you will find anywhere this season. The 56-year-old has raised the level of several players other promotion chasers would not have considered worthwhile, turning Owen Moxon into one of the fourth tier’s superstars and Kristian Dennis into a 20-goal striker who isn’t even guaranteed a start with the competition around him.
Carlisle United were heavily unfancied before a ball was kicked, and were even unfancied ahead of their play-off tie with Bradford City given the setbacks suffered in the latter weeks of the season. Having lost the first leg at Valley Parade though, the Cumbrians won a thrilling second leg at Brunton Park 3-1 after extra time to progress 3-2 on aggregate. Aside from arguably the first half of the first leg, Carlisle had the better of Bradford throughout the tie, and now find themselves just one game away from third tier football for the first time since 2014.
My days of walking out as a player have gone, but now I’ve got the chance to lead them out as manager
Carlisle boss Paul Simpson speaks about his pride after reaching the play-off final
Carlisle United team news
It was an interesting afternoon of emotions for defender Ben Barclay, the man whose extra-time goal saw Carlisle through to Wembley at Bradford City’s expense. Barclay is however on loan from Stockport County, and unable to play against his parent club. It will be a real shame to see him not part of a Wembley final that he is responsible for getting his team to.
Carlisle will be boosted however by the return of Jon Mellish from suspension. A red card in the penultimate league game against Salford City left the 25-year-old suspended for both legs of the play-off semi-final against Bradford City. Mellish is back however and can return to being a key cog in either the Carlisle defence or midfield and could well compensate for Ben Barclay’s absence.
Top scorer Kristian Dennis only made the bench last weekend after suffering a freak injury in training but seems hopeful that he should be ok to feature as part of the squad at the national stadium.
Simpson will go out to win this final League Two game and should retain the 3-5-2 played at Brunton Park on Saturday. Tomáš Holý will remain in goal behind a back three of Corey Whelan, Paul Huntington and most likely the returning Jon Mellish. Jack Armer and Joel Senior should start at wing-back, with Owen Moxon, Callum Guy and Alfie McCalmont forming a midfield three. The experienced Joe Garner may be fancied to start up top alongside John Kymani-Gordon who had a big impact in the second leg against Bradford City. Kristian Dennis, Ryan Edmondson and Omari Patrick are alternatives in the striker position though.
Paul Simpson may however consider switching to a 4-3-3 with Mellish back in midfield. It would drop Armer and Senior back to full-back roles and take McCalmont out of the team with one of Patrick or Dennis most likely to join a three-man frontline.
The seven-year plan
When local businessman Mark Stott completed a takeover of Stockport County back in January 2020, it began a rapid rise and a long-term plan for the upper end of the Football League pyramid.
Newly-promoted to the National League at the time, Stockport set a seven-year plan in place to reach the Championship, requiring three promotions in that time in order to get there. Having achieved the first promotion just last season by winning the National League, they are now one game from earning a second promotion in what is just year three of the plan.
Dave Challinor’s side booked their place at Wembley through an eventful second leg at Edgeley Park. Having lost 1-0 to Salford City at the Peninsula Stadium, the Hatters were able to pull back level on aggregate through an Isaac Olaofe header, then quickly recover from a late extra-time Salford goal to send the tie to spot-kicks. In front of yet another bumper crowd in Edgeley, goalkeeper and club icon Ben Hinchliffe saved twice as Stockport won the shootout 3-1 and progressed.
A season that started with expectations of a second consecutive promotion challenge could yet still be realised. The trip to Wembley is their first since Stockport played in the fourth-tier play-off final back in 2008. They beat Rochdale 3-2 in front of 35,715 that year and will be keen to beat another northern club in front of an even bigger crowd this time.
With one game to go, we’re 90 minutes from achieving the goal we set out with at the start of the season, which we’d absolutely have taken.”
Hatters’ boss Dave Challinor reflects on the position his side are in after just missing out on automatic promotion
Stockport County team news
Stockport got a second-leg boost with the return of several key attacking personnel. Paddy Madden returned to make the starting eleven, Will Collar and Antoni Sarcevic were both available to make the bench and come on in the second half. The gamble of removing Ryan Croasdale from the centre of midfield paid off on this occasion, but Dave Challinor may be keen to bring him back in with Stockport not entering this game with a deficit already affecting them.
The Hatters 3-5-2 will include stalwart Ben Hinchliffe in goal, with Fraser Horsfall and Chris Hussey part of the defence in front of him. If Croasdale is brought back in, Akil Wright should be moved into the right side of the back three. Kyle Knoyle will play at right-wing-back. Ryan Rydel’s talent and crossing ability should make him a deserved starter at left-wing-back, though both Hussey and Myles Hippolyte can play there instead.
Akil Wright will continue in a disciplined midfield role if Croasdale is not brought back in. Any of Callum Camps, Conor Lemonheigh-Evans, Will Collar, Myles Hippolyte and Antoni Sarcevic could be the other two in midfield. Camps and Lemonheigh-Evans started both semi-final legs.
If fit, Paddy Madden and Isaac Olaofe will be the favourites to start up top whilst top scorer Kyle Wootton remains injured. Jack Stretton is the alternative.
Carlisle United v Stockport County Cheat Sheet
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Carlisle United v Stockport County bet builder tips
Carlisle United v Stockport County
Kick Off: 13:30
Competition: League Two Play-Off Final
Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
Selection: 1 of 3
Prediction: Stockport to be promoted
Odds: 1.73
Stockport took four points off Carlisle United during the regular season, winning 2-0 at Edgeley Park in October and drawing 2-2 at Brunton Park in April. That home win came early into Stockport’s strong run of form which catapulted them from the bottom end of the table to the top end, coming very close to automatic promotion on the final day of the season.
Stockport County at their very best are almost untouchable at League Two level. Once Dave Challinor found the right system and personnel at the start of October, the Hatters began to churn out all the right numbers on a consistent basis. No side collected more points in the second half of the season than Stockport and they averaged almost two points a game across the final two thirds of the campaign, conceding around 0.6 goals per 90 on average and scoring 1.5.
In full flow, they are a relentless attacking outfit that utilise width to build attacks and provide dangerous deliveries into central areas, attacked by the array of forward options and advancing midfielders.
Challinor’s back three in turn utilises two ball-playing defenders in the outside centre-back roles to aid in the build-up of possession, with Fraser Horsfall and Ryan Croasdale providing key output as the disciplined, commanding members of defence and midfield respectively.
Stockport County are the favourites to progress from this play-off final, and that favourites tag comes not only on them being the higher-ranked side, but because of the potential level that the Hatters can reach. They are not able to be at full strength this weekend, but will be strong nonetheless and playing on the large Wembley pitch could prove a great fit for their expansive, attacking game.
They may not win inside 90, but backing Stockport to ultimately left the play-off trophy feels a good pick.
Selection: 2 of 3
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.57
With so much on the line, tight, tense games should always be expected in EFL play-off finals. Only two of the last 12 League Two finals have seen more than three goals scored, and seven of those ten games saw at most two goals scored. Each of the last four finals have seen the victor also record a clean sheet.
Both Carlisle United and Stockport County will turn to their respective defences to keep the other at bay this Sunday. Carlisle are boosted by the return of Jon Mellish from suspension, an excellent performer on the left side of the back three and in midfield. Cumbrian Paul Huntington has been one of the signings of the season, joining as a free agent from Preston North End at the start of the campaign and becoming a standout in the heart of the Carlisle backline. Goalkeeper Tomáš Holý has recorded a club record 20 clean sheets across the league season.
Towering centre-back Fraser Horsfall has been the rock in the centre of the Stockport defence when available. Akil Wright and Chris Hussey has regularly been deployed as ball playing defenders either side of him, though all of Neill Byrne, Ryan Johnson and Joe Lewis have also contributed to the defensive shape across the season. Goalkeeper Ben Hinchliffe, the hero in the semi-final tie with two penalty saves, has been with Stockport since their days in the National League North.
His progression from part-time to professional whilst still being the established number one at the Hatters leaves him considered to be arguably the greatest goalkeeper that the club has ever had. The 35-year-old remains one of the fourth tier’s top stoppers and is targeting a third promotion in his last five years at the Edgeley Park outfit.
Both sides conceded less than a goal a game on average during the League Two season, Carlisle letting in 0.9 on average and Stockport just 0.8.
With the added pressure of a high-stakes play-off final, a game where one single mistake could end an entire season’s worth of work, neither team will be wanting to pick the ball out of their own net on multiple occasions. Play-Off finals are not often the place to go for entertaining goalfests.
Selection: 3 of 3
Prediction: Paddy Madden to have 1+ shots on target
Odds: 1.67
Irish striker Paddy Madden has been a familiar name in the lower leagues for many years now. The 33-year-old has featured in the past for Wembley opponents Carlisle United, as well as Yeovil Town, Scunthorpe United and Fleetwood Town almost exclusively at League One level.
A high-profile move to Stockport County came about mid-way through the 2020-21 season, and Madden has hit double figures in League Two this campaign after scoring 23 times in the National League just last season.
Deployed as part of a front two, and claiming an increased level of importance with the injury to top scorer Kyle Wootton, Madden is the man in the Stockport team with the highest shot volume during matches.
The Irishman has averaged 2.8 shots per 90 across the fourth tier season, the vast majority of these coming from within 18 yards of goal. His total of 83 shots is only in turn bettered by Wootton’s 89. A striker with an all-round finishing game, Madden is often the target of Stockport’s quality deliveries from both the left and right flanks. Expect him to be earmarked as one of the most influential attacking players in the Stockport team that plays this weekend.
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