Martin Zubimendi looks shattered at the moment, and I think that’s why his performance levels have dropped a bit across recent months. I’ve still been impressed with him across the season as a whole, and his struggles are probably more down to Arsenal not having a suitable backup to Zubimendi, with Arteta barely using Christian Norgaard all season.

Zubimendi sits the deepest of Arsenal’s midfield trio, and has committed a foul in both of the head-to-head meetings between the sides this season - in the EFL Cup final, and the 1-1 draw between the sides at the Emirates earlier on in the campaign. He’ll be important if Arsenal are to get anything from this game. He’s committed 28 fouls across his 31 starts in the Premier League this campaign (0.94 per 90), and should be regularly tested by Rayan Cherki.

Cherki was the best player on the pitch against Chelsea last time out. He’s drawn 30 fouls across his 15 starts in the Premier League this season (1.95 per 90), and should be instrumental for City here as they look to pile the pressure on Arsenal. Arsenal committed 12 fouls in the EFL Cup final, which they lost 2-0, and 11 fouls when they netted a last-minute equaliser in the game between the sides at the Emirates.

Everyone is now aware that Arsenal struggle to create chances from open play, and I think it comes back to their recruitment. Players like Eberechi Eze, Noni Madueke and Viktor Gyokeres are all decent players in isolation - but were they really an upgrade on what Arsenal had in those positions already? 

Arsenal’s struggles from open play are best highlighted by their xG from open play, which sits at 30.05, 6th in the league overall. This is really poor for a side that sits top of the league, even Bournemouth have produced a higher xG from open play this season. However, Arsenal dominate the league when it comes to efficiency from set pieces - 30% of their goals in the Premier League have come from non-penalty set pieces, with most of those being corners.

Arsenal racked up 11 corners when the sides met at the Emirates earlier in the campaign, and fell just one short of this line in the recent meeting at Wembley. Arsenal are averaging 5.97 corners per game in the Premier League this term, only Newcastle (6.50) are winning more corners per game than Arsenal this season. This stays pretty steady when looking at their away record (5.75 per game), suggesting that Arsenal can once again cover this corner line as their main route to goal. 

David Raya will have to be at his very best if Arsenal are to get a result here, and he has experience of facing a barrage of attacks at the Etihad before. Arsenal have not won at the Etihad since 2015, so there are going to be nerves in that Arsenal squad ahead of this clash, and this could see them shrink a little in those important moments.

Raya was forced into making nine saves when Arsenal last travelled to the Etihad. Arsenal did go down to 10 men in that game, but it’s still a good example of the volume of shots that Raya can expect here from a City side that look in the mood and have a ridiculous record in April under Pep Guardiola. Raya was forced into two saves when the sides met earlier in the season, and I’d expect City to improve on that here with their newfound confidence.

Manchester City drew five saves from Robert Sanchez last time out as they came away 3-0 winners over Chelsea. They also drew three saves from Giorgi Mamardashvilli in their 4-0 hammering of Liverpool at the Etihad, showing that even if City do run away with this game a little, they can still test Raya on at least three occasions. 

One of the most interesting trends to track this season with Manchester City is how they’ve become more aggressive. Pep Guardiola’s side have never been known as agitators, or a team that have a particularly high foul count - but that has changed a little this season:

Manchester City Average Fouls and Yellow Cards 2021-2026 

2021/22 - 8.40 fouls per game (42 yellow cards) 

2022/23 - 9.10 fouls per game (44 yellow cards)

2023/24 - 7.60 fouls per game (52 yellow cards)

2024/25 - 7.60 fouls per game (57 yellow cards) 

2025/26 - 10.1 fouls per game (57 yellow cards)*

*7 games remaining. 

This is a clear pattern that shows that Guardiola has adapted his side to match the physical intensity of the league, which is something that was missing from Manchester City last season. This is linked to the arrival of Pep Lijnders as an assistant coach, who has definitely made the side more competitive in these areas, previously working under Jurgen Klopp at Liverpool.

Manchester City have committed 10+ fouls in both of their games against Arsenal this season, and should be able to cover this foul line again here given the extra context surrounding the game, which should make it a feisty affair that sees Manchester City commit at least 10 fouls, in line with their average across the season as a whole - the highest average they’ve posted across the last five seasons. 

Rayan Cherki is brilliant to watch. I watched a clip of him earlier today where he was talking about why he loves football, and his aim to make families forget about their struggles for 90 minutes as he entertains them. This is so obvious when watching him play, but he’s not all tricks either - Pep Guardiola is morphing him into a really effective player.

Cherki registered two assists last time out as Manchester City battered Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. He was the best player on the pitch, and notably looks a lot fitter than he did at the start of the season - which is probably why Guardiola wasn’t using him as often as many thought he should have. Cherki is also a little injury-prone, so Guardiola’s management of the French talent has been pretty good so far in my view.

Cherki has registered 13 goal contributions across his 15 starts in the Premier League this season. This is an exceptional record for a player who is brand new to the league and is still very young. His arrogance reminds me a little of Eden Hazard. We’ve missed a player like that in the Premier League for a few years, so it is really refreshing to see a player like Cherki do so well. 

Remarkably, only Bruno Fernandes (17) has registered more assists in the Premier League than Rayan Cherki (10). This is particularly impressive as Cherki has only started 15 games; his numbers could reach astronomical heights if he features throughout an entire Premier League season. 

Kai Havertz tends to like the big games. He’s a player that I think could be offering a bit more with the talent he has, but he’s quick to frustration and is at a reasonable price to pick up a card here, in what should be a heated affair between the two title rivals.

Havertz was very fortunate to avoid a yellow card against Bournemouth last time out, committing three fouls in just 54 minutes of action before he was replaced. He played just behind Viktor Gyokeres on that occasion, and is expected to line up in a similar role here, where he will face off against Rodri in a battle that I’ve earmarked for fouls and cards in this contest.

Havertz hasn’t featured that much this season due to injury, but picked up five yellow cards across his 21 starts in the Premier League last season - averaging 1.82 fouls committed per 90. You can back Havertz for 2+ fouls at 1.8, which may also be worth exploring as a slightly lower odds option if Havertz doesn’t quite manage to tempt the referee into a caution from the fouls he does commit here.

The last time the sides met at the Etihad, Rodri had to be replaced after 21 minutes in what would turn out to be a career-changing injury. Manchester City never quite managed to recover from his loss last season, but now have him back at the perfect time in the campaign as City look to close the gap at the top to just three points.

Rodri should probably pick up a few more cards from his foul count (0.88 per 90), but he is clever with some of his challenges and quickly hurries away from the referee when he knows he’s committed a foul worthy of a caution. He’s picked up two yellow cards across his 15 starts in the Premier League this campaign, and will be tasked with halting Arsenal when they look to break quickly after sustained City attacks.

This situation puts Rodri in the perfect position to commit a few tactical fouls, which nearly always results in a caution. I’d also keep an eye on Rodri for a goal here, that may sound a bit strange but he’s got a habit of striking from range for City in the big matches - and has plenty of motivation to get on the scoresheet against the side he suffered a major injury against when the sides last met at the Etihad.