EFL League Two Play-Offs 24/25 - Outright Tips & Trends
ABC Editorial Team
The ABC Editorial Team have a combined Sports Journalism experience of 20+ years. They love to crunch the numbers for all betting predictions, meticulously finding value in each selection. Football experts in their own right, they each bring specialists sports and leagues to the table. Whether it be football, horse racing, boxing, darts, or NFL, our team is equipped to bring you the most insightful and valuable betting tips around.
League Two Play-Offs Outrights & Trends
⬆️ Chesterfield to be Promoted @ 4.50 with Paddy Power
🏁 AFC Wimbledon to Progress to the Final @ 1.80 with Paddy Power
⬇️ Load both as singles below
The League Two play-offs are a mix of chaos and drama. As so often, it is the EFL division that throws convention and trends on their head, and, as a result, is both a) the most difficult play-offs to predict and b) the place where bigger prices can often be found.
To help us predict who has the most potential to get into the final and, ultimately, take their place in League One, we have crunched the numbers for current form, head-to-head records, and past trends to produce the best play-off guide available, along with data-informed angles in the betting markets.
League Two Play-Offs Predictions
There are a few reasons why Chesterfield are the best bet of all of the play-off contenders to progress.
First of all, they are the biggest price, which, in the League Two play-offs, where literally anything can happen, is probably a good tactic from a price perspective.
Secondly, they follow the trend of 7th-placed teams doing better than expected.
Finally, their semi-final opponents, Walsall, must be carrying a lot of mental baggage into the tie. It is one thing to throw away the gap that they had in the season as a whole, but to suffer that killer blow after they had finished their match on Saturday (as Bradford sealed promotion with a 97th minute winner), thinking that they may well had done enough to finish 3rd and to see it taken away from them must be difficult to take.
Chesterfield are also clear of the other teams in terms of overall form coming into the play-offs. While we have seen that this has counted for little in the last four campaigns overall, it cannot be a negative to be in good form and they're unbeaten in the last six matches coming in.
Chesterfield to be Promoted @ 4.50 with Paddy Power
In terms of the other semi-final, it is clearly going to be a tight affair, but the leaning is towards AFC Wimbledon.
They may be struggling to create much going forwards, but defensive solidity is often more important, as we have seen in the Championship and League One studies. Keeping clean sheets would at the very least lead to a penalty shoot-out for progression.
This is not to suggest that a penalty shoot-out is a likely outcome, but Wimbledon did execute a 2-0 win at home to Notts County in the league this season, albeit it was counteracted by a 1-0 win for County at Meadow Lane.
Wimbledon also have double the number of points of County over the last six matches coming into the play-offs.
AFC Wimbledon to Progress to the Final @ 1.80 with Paddy Power
💻 Current Form
League Two is also where someone from the mid-table pack can emerge into the top seven late on in the season. This is partly as a function of it being the only league that has four promotion positions, and partly because there is so little covering the teams in terms of budget and on-pitch ability.
Chesterfield are this year’s latecomer, following in the footsteps of Doncaster (2024), Salford (2023) and Swindon (2022). The bad news for the Spierites is that none of their recent predecessors were able to complete the job and win promotion into League One, indeed, none of them progressed past the semi-final stage.
However, Chesterfield do boast the best form going into the play-offs. Notts County have the least number of points over their last six matches, and yet their expected goals for is comparable to Chesterfield’s, the issue is the goals that they have conceded.
This is in direct opposition to County's semi-final opponents AFC Wimbledon. Their solid defence is their most favourable attribute coming into the post-season, but they are really struggling to create chances and score goals.
Walsall’s travails coming into the play-offs are well-known. How the Saddlers handle the fact that they really shouldn’t be in the play-offs having been 1.22 for the title at one stage, and well clear of 4th place for much of the season, and then, on top of all of that, having to see Bradford score in the very last minute of the season to consign them into the play-offs. It is a tough mental assignment for them. Psychologically it could play in Chesterfield's hands. After all, Walsall were 13 games without a win before beating Crewe on final day.
📊 Head-to-Head Records (2024/2025)
Walsall can perhaps take some solace and confidence from their head-to-head record against their play-off rivals. They are unbeaten against their three fellow contenders across the season, winning four and drawing two against them.
Notts County are the team with the poorest head-to-head in general, winning only one of their six, albeit that was a home win over their semi-final opponents Wimbledon.
Chesterfield only have one defeat in the season against their fellow play-off contenders as well, however, that was against Walsall, who they now have to play in the semi-finals.
🗒️ Historical Data
As always, League Two throws up some unusual data into the mix. The most common finishing position to progress into League One in the last decade is actually 7th. This was where Crawley progressed from last season, but Northampton, Blackpool, and AFC Wimbledon have all won promotion from 7th in the last ten years.
In terms of looking into the form of the play-off contenders in the post-COVID era there is very little insight to take from it overall. The teams with the best records coming into the play-offs in terms of points won, Doncaster and Stockport, didn’t win promotion.
The only time in the last four years where the team with the best results coming in did well, was in 2021, when Morecambe and Newport overcame two teams in poor form in Forest Green and Tranmere.
📈 Correlation and Coefficient of Determination Calculations
The correlation calculations confirm that there is no strong relationship between any metrics and the eventual result of the play-offs.
The strongest relationship is between the points won in the last six matches, but the correlation is very weak. The coefficient of determination calculation suggests only 6% of the results can be explained by the points won in the last six matches.
Tonnes of research has been undertaken to find the best value outright positions for the EFL League One, so why not dig into our EFL League One Predictions.
We'll be all over the play-offs, but it’s not just English football we cover on Andy’s Bet Club either, with a range of Football Betting Tips & Predictions on the site every day.
We have a litany of the top UK bookmakers on offer for you to join and build up your free bet credits, as well including our Best Accumulator Bookmakers article.
Free-to-play gamers should stick around for our Paddy Power Beat The Drop Tips and bet365 6 Scores Predictions.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
Written by an Andy verified content writer
18+ please gamble responsibly.