It is difficult not to feel a bit stung by Leeds after their last home match. The data heavily favoured them to win against Sunderland, and the performance on the night did not back that up.

However, that could’ve just been an off night for many reasons, and there is a chance that Blackburn cannot put up the same resistance that Sunderland were able to.

This may sound faintly ridiculous after Blackburn demolished Sunderland away from home two weeks ago, but the more evidence that can be seen, the more that result at the Stadium of Light looks like the anomaly.

Leeds are unbeaten at home all season, have the highest xG created in the league, and the lowest xG against as well. Blackburn, meanwhile, are the walking poster boy for the effect that a manager can have on a team’s performances.

With the same set of players, Jon Dahl Tomasson had Blackburn as one of the most exciting attacking teams in the league, but also one of the loosest defensive records. They would win or lose matches, but under John Eustace, roughly the same ratio of expected points have been earned but from a much tighter ship. Rovers are now lower-mid table for chances created and conceded.

This will, in all likelihood, not cut the mustard against Leeds. The best defence in the league is unlikely to give up the same sort of chances that Sunderland did for Rovers, and there doesn’t appear to be the same spark to create on their own.

It is a measure of how poorly Leeds performed on Wednesday night that they mustered only one shot on target all match, more on this later.

 Surely it will have been drilled into the team in the last couple of days to change this ahead of this match.

Therefore, looking at the data, it has to be Crysencio Summerville that is trusted again. Some big European teams are reported to be looking at the young Dutchman this summer, and he is still the main man in terms of time on the pitch and shots on target per 90 for the Whites. He is likely to get a bit more joy against Callum Brittain and Dom Hyam, at least according to their performances in the week, so he should be trusted in your bet builder.

The only Leeds player to achieve a shot on target against Sunderland was Joe Rodon. The Welsh central defender hasn’t scored for Leeds, indeed, he hasn’t scored in English football in 137 career appearances, but he does have two shots on target in his last two matches. He also has 1.8 xG to his name this season, so that goal should have come by now.

Leeds won the corners battle against Sunderland. It was always likely given the gamestate of 0-0 until the end, but something similar could happen here.

Leeds ended up winning the corner count 13-2 on Wednesday, other recent home matches have seen the Whites win the corner count: 4-3 v Hull, 13-2 v Millwall, 8-2 v Stoke, and 5-3 v Rotherham. Also, during that time, they lost it 5-2 to Leicester, but against inferior opposition Leeds have either been ridiculously dominant, or edged a closer corner count.

Blackburn are not one of the competition’s strongest corner teams away from home. They concede over 7 corners per away game, while only Plymouth concede a higher average away from home than Rovers.

All this evidence supports backing Leeds, despite their short price, in the corner market, and also backing the overs lines for the home team.

The tactic of looking for players to foul Georginio Rutter worked pretty well against Sunderland as the young Frenchman was fouled four times in the game, and Pierre Ekwah was one of those who fouled Rutter.

For Blackburn, Sondre Tronstad has committed the most fouls for them this season, and had two in midweek against Bristol City. He is the one who sits in front of the defence and will be there in and around Rutter if the FrencHman comes deep for the ball.

John Buckley could get a start in midfield after he came on at half time on Wednesday, and if he did, then he is worth a bet for at least one foul as well, probably two.

The final Blackburn player to mention is Harry Pickering. One suspects that John Eustace could revert to a back five in this fixture, especially given what happened on Wednesday, and this could see Pickering installed on the left of a back three, not a regular position for him. He has actually conceded two fouls in his last two matches, and in 11 of his last 13 matches so seems very generously priced in this market.